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Tesla Megapack Battery Storage

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#41
winfield100 said:
apparently we are going to need a lot of both stationary & mobile storage (like my CT that will be both!) :cool: ♥️
This _should_ help TE as general populace realizes it (?? 3 years to add a Terawatt ! of PV ??)
------snip-------
.......solar entrepreneur Danny Kennedy at Climate Week in New York City, who told him,(McKibben) “The planet is now adding a gigawatt a day of solar power. A nuclear plant’s worth every day of solar power.” About half of that total is being added in China and far outdistancing the increase in its fossil fuel plants. The U.S. is second, followed by Brazil and India......
------snip------

cleantechnica.com

Bill McKibben, Pope Francis, & The Warmest September - CleanTechnica

Bill McKibben is spreading the word that September, 2023 was crazy hot and that the time to save our planet is critically short.
cleantechnica.com cleantechnica.com
Click to expand...
 
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#42
1697660790390.png
 
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#50
mspohr said:
Nuclear is irrelevant
Click to expand...
Ok dispatchable then. You have to divide solar, 2 axis tracker, by three; and fixed by four. And that is one the best sunny day.
Texas, ecott, is trying to figure out how to use grid scale batteries, what has been happening is just seldom peek shaving. Texas might have 5 GW of installed battery capacity, will be interesting how it is utilized. California utilizes batteries daily, pehaps Texas should talk to California about their rules.
Perhaps make batteries only charge from green energy, forcing them to share some profits with wind/solar. Could also limit the battery max rate to $2500 per Mwh (half of dispatchable), or to play on the grid you have to provide a minimum amount of energy to the grid per year. I kind of like the last option.
 
Last edited:
#51
CrazyRabbit said:
Ok dispatchable then. You have to divide solar, 2 axis tracker, by three; and fixed by four. And that is one the best sunny day.
Texas, ecott, is trying to figure out how to use grid scale batteries, what has been happening is just seldom peek shaving. Texas might have 5 GW of installed battery capacity, will be interesting how it is utilized. California utilizes batteries daily, pehaps Texas should talk to California about their rules.
Perhaps make batteries only charge from green energy, forcing them to share some profits with wind/solar. Could also limit the battery max rate to $2500 per Mwh (half of dispatchable), or to play on the grid you have to provide a minimum amount of energy to the grid per year. I kind of like the last option.
Click to expand...
Yes, we all understand that the sun doesn't shine at night. Just install more solar (it's cheap).
The point is the batteries! Batteries are dispatchable on a sub second time frame which makes them superior to any other source.

Your proposals are interesting but why cripple batteries with artificial limits of charging, profits and payments? Is it to give fossil fuels an advantage?
 
#53
mspohr said:
Yes, we all understand that the sun doesn't shine at night. Just install more solar (it's cheap).
The point is the batteries! Batteries are dispatchable on a sub second time frame which makes them superior to any other source.

Your proposals are interesting but why cripple batteries with artificial limits of charging, profits and payments? Is it to give fossil fuels an advantage?
Click to expand...

Flywheels have faster response than batteries, for what it's worth. The extremely fast response is why Kodiak Island in Alaska used one.
 
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#54
mspohr said:
Yes, we all understand that the sun doesn't shine at night. Just install more solar (it's cheap).
The point is the batteries! Batteries are dispatchable on a sub second time frame which makes them superior to any other source.

Your proposals are interesting but why cripple batteries with artificial limits of charging, profits and payments? Is it to give fossil fuels an advantage?
Click to expand...

A benefit of tying batteries to renewables is that they don't just end up being a way to replace NG peakers with NG combined cycle.
 
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#55
ItsNotAboutTheMoney said:
Flywheels have faster response than batteries, for what it's worth. The extremely fast response is why Kodiak Island in Alaska used one.
Click to expand...
Are you talking about the flywheels installed specifically to load level the new electric shipping container crane?
That is a very niche, high power, low energy, high cycle use case.

Regardless, Tesla's software/electronically controlled Megapack can respond faster than flywheels assuming the flywheels are using standard AC induction slip regulated power control.
On Kodiak Island, flywheels are in and diesel is 99.8% out
 
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#56
From Bard:


YouTube


This video is about grid storage duration and why it matters.
  • Duration is a technical term that refers to the discharge duration of a grid storage technology. It is another way to express the energy to power ratio of a technology. A 10:1 energy to power ratio means a 10-hour discharge duration.
  • Duration matters because at a physics and engineering level, every technology has first principles characteristics that lend it to providing energy capacity or power capacity. Those characteristics result in a maximum rate that it can or should be discharged before damage or safety issues arise. Because those characteristics are fundamental to a technology, duration tends to be the point where a technology is the most cost efficient.
  • There are two ways to assess the cost of grid storage duration: specific cost and total investment cost.Specific cost tells us how much each unit of power or energy costs for each technology independent of other variables. Total investment cost takes into account that power and energy are not independent variables. There is always an energy to power ratio or duration to factor in.
  • If we use the total investment cost formula and run a series of calculations using a range of ratios for energy to power capacity and plot the results on a graph, then we can see how the cost of each grid storage technology changes with duration. This illustrates that rather than duration being something that's fixed at a point in time like 1 hour, each technology has a relatively wide sweet spot for cost where it has advantages or disadvantages compared to other technologies.
  • When a company that sells grid storage hardware gives a duration figure, they can be referring to either the technical term for duration or they could be trying to market their product where they believe it's cost competitive with other technologies.
  • Tesla's MEAP pack uses the technical definition of duration and offers two options: a 2-hour duration option and a 4-hour duration option. Both battery packs have roughly the same energy capacity at about 3.9 megawatt hours but the 2-hour duration version has a power capacity of 1.9 megawatt and the 4-hour duration version has a power capacity of 1 megawatt. That is an energy to power ratio of 2:1 and 4:1 for a duration of 2 hours and 4 hours.
  • EOS energy on the other hand lists their grid storage technology as good for durations of 3 to 12 hours. In this case, rather than using a technical definition of duration, EOS believes their product will be competitive for 3 to 12-hour grid services.
I hope this summary is helpful!
192px.svg

YouTube
summarize

Part 1 I How Grid Storage Duration is Assessed and Why it MattersThe Limiting FactorOpens in a new window Grid storage manufacturers often list a duration on their technology that can be anywhere from seconds to hours to seasons. What exactly does that mean? Today I'll walk you through how grid storage is assessed and why it matters. "Monetizing

 
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#58
Musskiah said:
I am reposting this originally from Oct 13, 2023...Along with the added information that has come to light from Bradford Ferguson that the Lathrop "Megapacktory" (as Bradford coined it
which I love) could now be slated to produce 2x what was originally estimated for a total of 80KWh or roughly 20,000 Megapack equivalent. So you can, perhaps, 2x these figures. SOURCE RANDY AND BRADFORD (mentions 80KWh around 9:30 time)
ALTERNATE INSIGHTS FROM BRIAN WANG:
www.nextbigfuture.com

Three Tesla Megapack Factories Could Provide Most of Tesla Profits in 2025 | NextBigFuture.com

CATL is the world's largest battery maker and CATL battery factories are operating at 70% of capacity to produce about 200 GWH/year of batteries. Tesla needs
www.nextbigfuture.com www.nextbigfuture.com
www.nextbigfuture.com

Tesla Megapack Factory Production Limit Solved and Capacity Will be Doubled to 80 GWh | NextBigFuture.com

Bradford Ferguson reports that the Tesla Megapack factory will expand to 80 GWH per year of capacity. The original megapack factory capacity was 40 GWH.
www.nextbigfuture.com www.nextbigfuture.com

In the name of being conservative in estimates, I'll stick to the OG figures in my original post...
----------
Re all this talk about growth in 2024:

Lathrop @ 10k megapacks annually should generate well over $20B in revenue simply from the sale of megapacks alone (and then recurring revenue stacks up each year for annual operational revenue). At just 20% margins, this is another $4B+ in annual profits, or $1B per Q - from a single Megafactory. $1B in profit is equivalent to roughly 200k M3/MY PER Q; or stated another way, equivalent to two factories! So there are the "two gigafactories built this year" we are looking for (this is where 2024 growth will suprise the WS "smart $$"). Now recall Tesla has at least one Megafactory breaking ground in China in Shanghai (Lingang to be specific)... Tesla to begin construction of Shanghai "Megapactory" in near future, says EV maker's China chief
If this comes online by Q3 2024 (as it is slated to and we know the pace Tesla China operates at) lookout above!

Whether or not Berlin and Austin expand at all, or Model2 Compact comes in late 2024 to Ausin (or Berlin or Shanghai), it is apparent that EARNINGS growth (its all about EBITA versus enterprise value and PEG ratio IMHO) is going to grow 30% from Energy alone in 2024. The beast is awakening.

I open my comments up for criticism...
Click to expand...
 
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