Here is the first video. I decided to start with the no heating test first, because it will bet he most interesting one. Unexpected results for some (for me it just reconfirmed what I was expecting). I can already tell you that the next video - the battery capacity test will be even more shocking. Tesla has pulled a fast one on a lot of people, me including.
Tesla Mode 3 2021 vs 2019, heating off
What is shocking about this?
Which is the lead car, 2019 or 2020?
First, your following distance is not 200 meters, unless you were traveling 150+mph (you do not give the speed but your efficiency numbers suggest closer to 70-80mph).
I suggest redoing this test and swapping the car positions, in subsequent, identical road segment tests. Just to control for the effects of slipstream. 100 meters is enough to have a small effect on efficiency, as anyone who has done long distance travel in a Tesla can attest.
Second, efficiency numbers in the EPA (and WLTP) tests are a snapshot in time - they do not reflect improvements in motor drive software. So it's not that surprising that a result from the WLTP test two years ago on a 2019 can no longer be duplicated on a car running the latest software. So I don't see any "funny business" in the 2019 vs. 2021 tests. I'd expect that the efficiencies would be very similar, regardless of what the prior EPA tests and WLTP tests said, unless there was a hardware change.
Regarding hardware changes:
We had already confirmed that the AWD had the same 990 motor here. I had
speculated that it might not, due to the efficiency comparison of 2020 vs. 2021, but again, that may have been entirely a software issue. Anyway, subsequently we proved it had the 990 motor (someone took a picture of a 2021 AWD). So, what happened? Maybe the 2020 Performance EPA test got a software update that the 2020 AWD EPA test did not? (There were additional documented (in release notes) motor drive improvements rolled out within a few months of the date of 2020 EPA test:
Vehicle Software Updates | Teslascope, so this is entirely conceivable - it has always been mysterious why the 980 and 990 motors got different results (compare Stealth to AWD in 2020), and this may be an explanation - different software in use on the test vehicles).
So to me it is fairly unsurprising given the hardware is nearly identical (with the exception of the heat pump), that the actual efficiencies of the vehicles are similar. And even the differences between the EPA tests are just a few % anyway - well within what would be expected from a motor drive efficiency improvement.
Again, the main reason for the jump in range in EPA tests is clearly the heat pump. The reason for the 20km increase in WLTP tests is likely software improvements over the course of two years.
This was all outlined (with uncertainty since cars had not been delivered) a couple months ago:
MAYBE the AWD and P have the same rear motor now.
Speculation, obviously.
It looks like AWD incorporated the motor efficiency improvements that existed on 2020 Model 3 Performance (remember it was more efficient than the AWD according to EPA testing, and got 10 more rated miles than the AWD, but was voluntarily reduced)
This appears to be true.
So the pareto, AWD, adding 31 rated miles, to go from 322 to 353:
1) 18 miles improvement due to scalar changes (heat pump); will not be "realizable" if not using climate control.
2) 13 miles improvement due to efficiency improvements (apparently taking on the Performance 2020 rear motor?)
(Again, note the "?" on the motor comment - this was speculative, and subsequently disproved a few weeks ago - which meant that it was motor efficiency improvements unrelated to a hardware change...which would be software.)