Tesla Model 3 Review Speculations - late 2017 release date

[vortexz]

Hi everyone.With all these features and design speculations we've seen first, I have tried to gather all (few) infos that were given to us by now either by Tesla or Elon Musk himself.

What we know for sure is, that Tesla Model 3 will be a BMW 3 series competitor, will have the size of the new Audi A4 and Tesla is targeting 500.000 cars per year.In order to succeed this, Tesla Model 3 being good will not be enough, it will have to blow competitors away in all sectors, like design, comfort, features, performance.

The best thing about this is that Elon Musk is a smart man, and he already knows all these, as he even stated a few years ago in an interview where he was asked how he managed to make the Model S such a succesfull car.

Read my full review on my website :
Tesla Model 3 Review Speculations - All we know so far

I hope all my informations will be as accurate as possible to the final product that we will get in late 2017.

 

[Model 3]

"If Tesla (or Elon Musk) wants to sell 500.000 Model 3 per year,"

He wants to sell 500.000 cars per year in 2020. This will be Model S, Model X and Model 3. It could be 50.000 Model S, 50.000 Model X and 400.000 Model 3, or 150.000 Model S, 150.000 Model X and 200.000 Model 3. Probably somewhere in between

 

[vortexz]

Tesla can't sell more than 50.000 MS and 50.000 MX per year
So they would have to sell at least 400.000 M3 to hit the target

 

[Model 3]

Tesla can't sell more than 50.000 MS and 50.000 MX per year

Why?

 

[vortexz]

because
1. It's an expensive car
2.A more affordable, Model 3 will be released

 

[Cattledog]

I suspect that by 2020 it will be 50,000 Model S, 50,000 Model X, 200,000 Model 3, 200,000 Model Y.

 

[Brad_SC]

I suspect that by 2020 it will be 50,000 Model S, 50,000 Model X, 200,000 Model 3, 200,000 Model Y.

Your guess might be pretty close. But I'd adjust it to...
2020 Tesla Sales numbers
Model S/X Combined: 75,000
Model 3/Y Combined: 425,000

--Known--
Model X Deliveries Started: September 2015
Model 3 Unveiled: March 2016 (6 months after the line above)
---Guess-work--
Model 3 Deliveries Start: September 2017 (18 months after the line above)
Model Y Unveiled: March 2018 (6 months after the line above)
Model Y Deliveries Start: September 2019 (18 months after the line above)

 

[Max*]

50,000 Model S is still slightly optimistic. The luxury car segment sells 100k cars a year combined across all manufacturers. #1 Large Luxury Car In US = Tesla Model S (2015 Sales Comparison)

75k Model S/X combined I can believe.

 

[Model 3]

because
1. It's an expensive car
2.A more affordable, Model 3 will be released

That is correct. But still, they did sell 50k of this "expensive car" last year and is growing.... And #2 is not the same car at a more affordable price.

Yes, it is a valid guess that they will not be able to sell more then 50k (or even lower) of this cars, but not to ascertain that it is impossible. And that is what I read your answer - that I replied to - to be...

 

[Uncle Paul]

Tesla could always offer a decontented version of the model S and expand their marketplace. Less expensive interior, tires and wheels, lower battery costs. Maybe come out with a $60,000 version of S and a $65,000 version of X.

 

[vortexz]

no need for that because of Model 3
the Model S should only move up in range

 

[vortexz]

less than 14 days until the reveal ! I'm so excited

 

[Vitold]

As much as I wish it would be true I doubt that Tesla will be making 500k cars by 2020.

In any case it would make sense for Tesla to re-position inefficient Model S and X to the highest price bracket and sell as much Model 3/Y platform as possible. By 2020 I think Tesla would cap S/X at 30k total and produce as many Model 3/Y as they can.

 

[mikes_fsd]

As much as I wish it would be true I doubt that Tesla will be making 500k cars by 2020.

Lets first see when the first Modle 3's ship, and how the ramp goes, then let us talk about 2020 (unless first Model 3 ships in 2020... then I'm with you.)

 

[vortexz]

Man after seeing sooo many issues with the Model X (reliability issues) I DO HOPE for this company's own good they will make a reliable Model 3.
If model 3 won't be a reliable car people won't buy it !

 

[cfttester]

--Known--
Model 3 Unveiled: March 2016 (6 months after the line above)
---Guess-work--
Model 3 Deliveries Start: September 2017 (18 months after the line above)

Model 3 Delivery start date is easy to predict. Take an official start date, add one year. Count the number of new/unusual features (extra large windshield, super-cool seats, god forbid non-standard doors, etc) Add at least a half of the year per feature and you will get you Delivery Start Date. In case you are ordering a mid-priced version of Model 3 - add one more year for your personal Delivery Start Date.

 

[MrBoylan]

50,000 Model S is still slightly optimistic. The luxury car segment sells 100k cars a year combined across all manufacturers. #1 Large Luxury Car In US = Tesla Model S (2015 Sales Comparison)

75k Model S/X combined I can believe.

Those numbers are US only. Tesla delivered over 50,000 Model S last year alone (worldwide). I believe Tesla's US deliveries are somewhere between 50% and 60% of their global numbers.

It remains to be seen whether X will have as high a demand as Model S or higher. It also remains to be seen whether demand for S and X plateaus once the Model 3 is available or continues to increase as the Model S has ever since launch. My guess is that Model 3 sales will cannibalize Model S sales a bit as a fully loaded Model 3 will most likely be much more fully featured than a base Model S at a similar price. And people will be able to get an awesome long range EV for a lot less than the $70K entry level price of a Model S.

 

[MrBoylan]

Model 3 Delivery start date is easy to predict. Take an official start date, add one year. Count the number of new/unusual features (extra large windshield, super-cool seats, god forbid non-standard doors, etc) Add at least a half of the year per feature and you will get you Delivery Start Date. In case you are ordering a mid-priced version of Model 3 - add one more year for your personal Delivery Start Date.

You're such a trouble-maker. Yes, Model X was delivered much later than originally predicted as demand for Model S was much higher than expected. So the company shifted a lot of resources away from Model X development to refine and enhance the Model S to satisfy global demand.

Early on in the Model S days (2012), Musk predicted global demand for the Model S would peak at 20,000 units per year. Last year, they sold 50,000 of them: 60% YOY growth compared to 2014. And yeah, the Model X had a lot of major new features in it that took a long time to get right and this pushed things back significantly.

But these challenges are mostly behind them now. They've said that the Model 3 will not have any ground-breaking new features, so it should be much less of an engineering challenge than the S and X before it. They now know how - and have the facilities to - stamp out body panels and frame components, weld these pieces together into a body in white using advanced robotic assembly machines, wind copper into electric motors, assemble battery cells into battery packs, build control systems, and assemble all of these parts into fully functional vehicles. Auto Pilot is already up and running. Most of what they've done in development of the S and X can be leveraged in the Model 3 with just a few tweaks. It's really just a question of bringing all of the associated costs down so they can hit that aggressive price target.

The gigafactory is currently ahead of schedule and should start turning out cheaper battery packs early next year, in plenty of time to hit a Q4 2017 launch and 2018 ramp up. Is it possible that the Model 3 first deliveries will slip from 2017 to 2018? Yes. It's possible. But I think Musk, and the many talented engineers and designers who work for him, are going to make it their mission over the next 18-24 months to not let that happen.

 

[cfttester]

But these challenges are mostly behind them now. They've said that the Model 3 will not have any ground-breaking new features, so it should be much less of an engineering challenge than the S and X before it.

Except that they have to re-design the power-train (new battery, likely new motors), 100% of body panels and substantial part of interior. Everything else is a piece of cake .

 

[Darryl]

1) Is Mr Musk and Tesla aware you are asking these questions?
2) How will this information be used?
3) Will any of the information be published?