Campi
Member
I don't know how long you are planning to keep your Tesla, but in 4-5 years or so, I believe EV second hand marked will explode.
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Tesla open up the SuC network [in UK]
- Thread starter kelvin 660
- Start date
I agree. The amount of new Teslas being sold at the moment, there will be a lot of them in the second hand market in the next couple of years which will have a significant impact on the residuals whether supercharging network is opened up or not.I don't know how long you are planning to keep your Tesla, but in 4-5 years or so, I believe EV second hand marked will explode.
Jason71
Well-Known Member
please don't use explode and EV in the same sentence. There are enough trolls around doing that as it is !I don't know how long you are planning to keep your Tesla, but in 4-5 years or so, I believe EV second hand marked will explode.
last year 12% of cars sold were EV's so in 4 years time anyone looking for a used EV will have a choice of a maximum of 12% of the 4 year old cars on sale and if they broaden their search to between 2-6 years probably still about 12% given how few were sold in the preceding years. Which , tends to make you think the residuals should remain pretty strong unless new prices collapse and there is little sign of that so far.
Campi
Member
Sorry, I didn't mean to upset anyone by using "explode" in my sentence. I meant the demand for second hand EV's will skyrocket in 4-5 years, and I should have made that clear in my post. We're only 8 years away from a ban on new ICE vehicles, so there will be a huge demand for EV's, both new and second hand.
Bantam
Member
Jason71
Well-Known Member
. I feel bad now
Astrape
Member
Hehehe well that was a quite a read. Including the detour into the Dutch thread and so on.
TLDR: Nothing to worry about here......
My lease Lexus IS300h needs replacing soon and they arent available in the UK any more so I started looking at the tax efficient options and persuaded Tesla Cardiff to give me 4 hours in an M3. Nice car, love the minimalism, ride is just a little busy, seat is a little firm, but by the end of the trial I had forgotten about those so they are obviously not intrusive. Nothing felt "cheaper" than the Lexus, and the steering, road holding and drivetrain are all great. Tried a Lexus NX PHEV their only tax efficient option - its a boat, a well executed boat but still a boat. Lexus UX electric doesnt have any range, they really need an electric sedan (electric IS is coming apparently... eventually). BMW 330e, haha that was fun to try, but nursing a thoroughbred all day is not my thing really, and after a CVT the gear changes are, well, irritating actually. i4/Q4 etron, range / efficiency isnt good and anyway I dont want my electric to look like its been squashed into an ICE frame and tradition.
But all this chatter about the supercharger availability changing, that is something to check out. This car needs to be a workhorse for me, I need to be able to charge and go. That for me rules all the other EV brands out at the moment, not that any of them are competitive on value / range IMO. So I read this thread carefully. But on reflection I think there is a lot of worry here, and I'm not sure its justified. Here's my thoughts on the different points. Excuse the length but I am talking back to 23 pages
Misparked cars obstructing access – It’s a logistic problem. One that can be sorted out with revised layouts / rules. Surely its not such a big deal.
Increased use of the network – Balancing demand and availability is just a supply equation. There is no difference if Tesla sell lots more cars increasing demand, or if other cars are given access. Muggle access can be managed by restricting available SuC sites, which stalls can be used, what minimum charge rate they have access to (addressing the plug in hybrid demand). This argument also cuts in both directions. If a site is too busy to offer muggle access, then that strengthens the case for providing more spaces for Tesla to add superchargers. Part of this debate from Tesla's point of view must be to increase their bargaining power for getting sites for SuC, planning, and access to government approval or even subsidy. Having an exclusive network may lead to anti competition interventions through taxation, planning blocking, fair competition regulations or compulsory opening of the network by legislative requirement. The SuC network is already there, and retrospective requirements to open it would be challenged in courts, no-one wants to go there, but the rules for new builds may well become more stringent as time goes on and the government will want charger access to become a level playing field to encourage competition. Opening the SuC network will drive down the prices of others and force them to increase availability to compete, and that is good for EVs as a whole, as well as giving Tesla cars additional sites to charge at with shorter detours and easier to time arrival with a low charge.
Is it in Teslas interest to have other brands at Tesla superchargers? – Probably. I rock up in a Tesla and my colleague joins me in his e-car. Because my Tesla is more efficient and has more expertise in battery optimisation I charge 50% faster than he does. What does he think about the brand comparison now? Alternatively his brand has decided to make his battery charge equally fast even though the chemistry doesn’t really justify it, and will age faster. In a years time his car has lost 10% capacity, and mine is a percent or two down. The next year, the next…… Meanwhile all the time Tesla brand labels on the cars, and on the superchargers, are becoming familiar territory for him. He trusts the superchargers, and knows he pays for them every month and I don’t. What will he buy next time around? Ah but he likes his BMW gimmicks and wont buy a Tesla, hell buy an i4 and go on using the SuC network. OK no problem. Theres a lot of executive car owners that wont be moved until Tesla offers a soft cuddly chair and a lot of buttons. Heck when I got back in my Lexus IS after test driving the Tesla, the comfy chair was the first thing I noticed. Enough to not get a Tesla? not for me because I like the styling and the ride, but enough that it will stop some people choosing the Tesla, yes. Provided Tesla builds superchargers to meet with the extra demand, and manage the demand by site if they cant, it doesn’t matter, it all helps Teslas brand presence. Suppose you had to charge your Tesla at BMW chargers because they were 10 times more available – not a great feeling surely, unless you decide that BMW are not the enemy!
Is the price for muggles too low? – Well this is where it gets interesting, after doing some estimation, I doubt the price IS too low. The subscription for muggles is 12 euro a month, call it £10. £120 a year. Call a car life 10 years = £1200. Lets say there are 170000 Teslas on the road and 780 SuC stalls at the end of 2021 = 218 Teslas / stall. Dunno if thats accurate, feel free to correct me, but its enough to get a ball park calculation. Its hard to find prices for Supercharger build, no doubt they vary with the cost of the electrical connection / land prices, but lets take something at the higher end of the figures suggested on the internet and say £100,000 per stall which probably covers most locations. So to fund that from Tesla sales revenue would require the 100,000 / 218 = £458/Tesla sold. But the subscription cost for another car to use the network through its life was almost 3 times as much. So the revenue from muggles charging easily justifies expanding the network at the rate needed to keep up. If the stalls cost £250,000 each it still works, and guess what, if the muggles fund more superchargers, that more superchargers for Tesla owners to use to.
So although it feels like opening up the SuC network is a big downside, if the pricing is right, it has an equal amount of upsides, and in the long run is good for the brand.
Am I going to have an M3 for my next car? Ohhh yes!
TLDR: Nothing to worry about here......
My lease Lexus IS300h needs replacing soon and they arent available in the UK any more so I started looking at the tax efficient options and persuaded Tesla Cardiff to give me 4 hours in an M3. Nice car, love the minimalism, ride is just a little busy, seat is a little firm, but by the end of the trial I had forgotten about those so they are obviously not intrusive. Nothing felt "cheaper" than the Lexus, and the steering, road holding and drivetrain are all great. Tried a Lexus NX PHEV their only tax efficient option - its a boat, a well executed boat but still a boat. Lexus UX electric doesnt have any range, they really need an electric sedan (electric IS is coming apparently... eventually). BMW 330e, haha that was fun to try, but nursing a thoroughbred all day is not my thing really, and after a CVT the gear changes are, well, irritating actually. i4/Q4 etron, range / efficiency isnt good and anyway I dont want my electric to look like its been squashed into an ICE frame and tradition.
But all this chatter about the supercharger availability changing, that is something to check out. This car needs to be a workhorse for me, I need to be able to charge and go. That for me rules all the other EV brands out at the moment, not that any of them are competitive on value / range IMO. So I read this thread carefully. But on reflection I think there is a lot of worry here, and I'm not sure its justified. Here's my thoughts on the different points. Excuse the length but I am talking back to 23 pages
Misparked cars obstructing access – It’s a logistic problem. One that can be sorted out with revised layouts / rules. Surely its not such a big deal.
Increased use of the network – Balancing demand and availability is just a supply equation. There is no difference if Tesla sell lots more cars increasing demand, or if other cars are given access. Muggle access can be managed by restricting available SuC sites, which stalls can be used, what minimum charge rate they have access to (addressing the plug in hybrid demand). This argument also cuts in both directions. If a site is too busy to offer muggle access, then that strengthens the case for providing more spaces for Tesla to add superchargers. Part of this debate from Tesla's point of view must be to increase their bargaining power for getting sites for SuC, planning, and access to government approval or even subsidy. Having an exclusive network may lead to anti competition interventions through taxation, planning blocking, fair competition regulations or compulsory opening of the network by legislative requirement. The SuC network is already there, and retrospective requirements to open it would be challenged in courts, no-one wants to go there, but the rules for new builds may well become more stringent as time goes on and the government will want charger access to become a level playing field to encourage competition. Opening the SuC network will drive down the prices of others and force them to increase availability to compete, and that is good for EVs as a whole, as well as giving Tesla cars additional sites to charge at with shorter detours and easier to time arrival with a low charge.
Is it in Teslas interest to have other brands at Tesla superchargers? – Probably. I rock up in a Tesla and my colleague joins me in his e-car. Because my Tesla is more efficient and has more expertise in battery optimisation I charge 50% faster than he does. What does he think about the brand comparison now? Alternatively his brand has decided to make his battery charge equally fast even though the chemistry doesn’t really justify it, and will age faster. In a years time his car has lost 10% capacity, and mine is a percent or two down. The next year, the next…… Meanwhile all the time Tesla brand labels on the cars, and on the superchargers, are becoming familiar territory for him. He trusts the superchargers, and knows he pays for them every month and I don’t. What will he buy next time around? Ah but he likes his BMW gimmicks and wont buy a Tesla, hell buy an i4 and go on using the SuC network. OK no problem. Theres a lot of executive car owners that wont be moved until Tesla offers a soft cuddly chair and a lot of buttons. Heck when I got back in my Lexus IS after test driving the Tesla, the comfy chair was the first thing I noticed. Enough to not get a Tesla? not for me because I like the styling and the ride, but enough that it will stop some people choosing the Tesla, yes. Provided Tesla builds superchargers to meet with the extra demand, and manage the demand by site if they cant, it doesn’t matter, it all helps Teslas brand presence. Suppose you had to charge your Tesla at BMW chargers because they were 10 times more available – not a great feeling surely, unless you decide that BMW are not the enemy!
Is the price for muggles too low? – Well this is where it gets interesting, after doing some estimation, I doubt the price IS too low. The subscription for muggles is 12 euro a month, call it £10. £120 a year. Call a car life 10 years = £1200. Lets say there are 170000 Teslas on the road and 780 SuC stalls at the end of 2021 = 218 Teslas / stall. Dunno if thats accurate, feel free to correct me, but its enough to get a ball park calculation. Its hard to find prices for Supercharger build, no doubt they vary with the cost of the electrical connection / land prices, but lets take something at the higher end of the figures suggested on the internet and say £100,000 per stall which probably covers most locations. So to fund that from Tesla sales revenue would require the 100,000 / 218 = £458/Tesla sold. But the subscription cost for another car to use the network through its life was almost 3 times as much. So the revenue from muggles charging easily justifies expanding the network at the rate needed to keep up. If the stalls cost £250,000 each it still works, and guess what, if the muggles fund more superchargers, that more superchargers for Tesla owners to use to.
So although it feels like opening up the SuC network is a big downside, if the pricing is right, it has an equal amount of upsides, and in the long run is good for the brand.
Am I going to have an M3 for my next car? Ohhh yes!
You will find just about the only common thing between the IS300H and any Tesla is they both have 4 wheels and doors
.Our IS300H is 7 years old in 2 weeks, our Tesla 5 years old. Regardless of the Supercharging network stuff, if we had to choose to own one car it wouldn't be the Lexus.
Lexus hopefully will get their act together on EVs, an electric RX is apparently due in the next couple of year's and IS to follow. So who knows maybe in another 5 years we'll be able to get an electric IS and charge it at a Supercharger site just to annoy Tesla owners
.
I've had my S for 3.5 years. Yesterday was the first time I had to queue to charge at Telford. Telford services used to be quiet but all the new 'cheap' Teslas are springing up. It's easy to argue that Tesla can add more chargers but that depends on infrastructure of power supplies and whether Tesla's philosophy will be to add more sites or expand current sites or slowly add to whatever system while gov decides on possible rules re charger systems. Lots of unknowns.
As it happens my DC charger failed and I couldn't charge at all (queued to try 2 chargers with without CCS adapter and also a reboot). I was lucky to be able to limp 50miles home and make it back driving carefully for max range and lucky that a/c charging is working. Otherwise it'd have been a call to roadside and a long wait.
It all depends on how much one uses a car as to how an EV suits. I'd be reluctant if using it a lot for long business trips with time sensitive arrivals needed.
Astrape
Member
Unknowns indeed. There is no certainty, but Tesla has a good track record with charger infrastructure. The current supercharger count is above 30,000 worldwide and growing at 50% annually. The two supercharger factories in Buffalo and Shanghai have a stated capacity of 10,000 / year, but they dont take up a lot of floorspace, so thats not likely to be a constraint. The DNOs have said they have plenty of overall network capacity for car charging and can add substation upgrades as required.
Out of interest how long did you end up queueing @pgkevet ?
Astrape
Member
DNO will only upgrade if the substation is
a) reaching capacity & new housing stock or corporate buildings locally require it ie. They’re being paid to upgrade
b) the substation or parts of are reaching end of life ie. No longer commercially viable to repair
c) Someone funds upgrades or new substations ie. Taxpayer
Other than that they’ll only do what is necessary to operate / maintain current stock. Current stock in most cases is designed with a small amount of over capacity 10% or so maybe 20% if you’re lucky. That over capacity soon gets eaten up when new houses have to be fitted with EV chargers.
Not long but I consider that a sign of the times. Telford used to be pretty quiet with rarely more than half the chargers occupied
Yep, agreed. My most used supercharger, only a dozen times but not for six months, never previously found it even half full. For those of us who can’t always charge at home (and don’t want to spend hours at a services) this really is a dark cloud on the horizon
Hope you don’t mean the new Eletre as that’s expected to start at £100k, so more a competitor against the Model X (might actually be slightly bigger). Still I take your point that one of the big Tesla USPs will go once they open the network and expect my next car won’t be a Tesla. Must admit I like the sound of the type 135, a sports car jointly developed by Lotus and Alpine, but I don’t think that’s due until 2026.
M1tch
2021 M3P with EAP
The SuC network was one of the big selling points for me. I really hope this doesn’t become a reality and I end up sat waiting for a random brand to charge
Question is.. do you believe a junior transport minister.. esp. since it hasn't been confirmed by anyone else like Grant Schapps or Elon.
I think this will depress Tesla sales.
I for one, can think of a couple of other EVs that I might buy instead of a Tesla if this actually happens.
I for one, can think of a couple of other EVs that I might buy instead of a Tesla if this actually happens.
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