Tesla Q2 2019 Vehicle Production & Deliveries - UK Model 3 perspective

[MrMajic]

As a NOOB please can anybody confirm that a AWD LR is identical to a P- with the exception of the software?
Thanks.

Hello. No-one really knows. It might be, but there might be some higher QA on the motor(s) and/or uprated electrical bits.

 

[MrBadger]

As a NOOB please can anybody confirm that a AWD LR is identical to a P- with the exception of the software?
Thanks.

Tow hitch is not available as an option on the performance either.

Performance most likely going to be more expensive to insure.

 

[james_power]

I was told by Tesla that they are not allowed to fit a towbar to a performance model (they even joked it would be cool to tow something 0-60 in 3.2s), referencing some eu regulation, so the difference between AWD LR and P- is probably firmware upgrades to a number of sub-systems and probably not practical to do over-the-air.

 

[GeorgeSymonds]

I was told by Tesla that they are not allowed to fit a towbar to a performance model (they even joked it would be cool to tow something 0-60 in 3.2s), referencing some eu regulation, so the difference between AWD LR and P- is probably firmware upgrades to a number of sub-systems and probably not practical to do over-the-air.

I think thats likely to be rubbish given there's a towbar on the MX P100DL and that has a 0-60 time of 2.7s and comes with the towing package

I imagine a P- is just an uncorked LR (uncorking being a term they've used in the past when they release more power from a given cars config, all through software) unless its like a ludicrous thing where its a different fuse allowing for a higher max current draw from the battery in which case it could be hardware,

 

[james_power]

I think thats likely to be rubbish given there's a towbar on the MX P100DL and that has a 0-60 time of 2.7s and comes with the towing package

I imagine a P- is just an uncorked LR (uncorking being a term they've used in the past when they release more power from a given cars config, all through software) unless its like a ludicrous thing where its a different fuse allowing for a higher max current draw from the battery in which case it could be hardware,

Good point, hadn't thought about the model X, yet another load of bull$hit from a salesman.

 

[ElectricJoules]

Yes, there are no hardware differences between the two cars, the AWD LR has a software limited acceleration profile.

Good to know. I was concerned if the AWD LR (which was only available to purchase for a matter of days n the UK) had only been ordered in small numbers, then it would be last in line for production. Assuming Tesla prioritise quantity over the order date. Any ideas of the UK order split between P+, P-, and LR?

 

[Peteski]

I was told by Tesla that they are not allowed to fit a towbar to a performance model (they even joked it would be cool to tow something 0-60 in 3.2s), referencing some eu regulation, so the difference between AWD LR and P- is probably firmware upgrades to a number of sub-systems and probably not practical to do over-the-air.

Simply hasn't been homologated for towing (at least not yet). I think there may be an issue with the load rating on the 20" P+ wheels, but that wouldn't apply to a P-

So my guess is that a towbar will become an option on the P- sooner or later. There is no technical reason why not and there will be some demand for it.

 

[ElectricJoules]

Just read this on Facebook -
I have just had a call from Tesla in Holland. The lady was straight up and said that there are no boats inbound at all with M3 cars. There are cars ready but they havent left America yet. The very earliest they will be here is the last week in July and, apparently, no one will be receiving any cars until August now.

 

[sixela]

I was told by Tesla that they are not allowed to fit a towbar to a performance model (they even joked it would be cool to tow something 0-60 in 3.2s), referencing some eu regulation, so the difference between AWD LR and P- is probably firmware upgrades to a number of sub-systems and probably not practical to do over-the-air.

They're not allowed to fit it because on the P+ the car itself is already very close to the max weight rating per tyre for the 20" tyres (and on the EU continent you can't get the Performance without the Performance Upgrade Package).

On the EU continent I think the only ones certified for a tow bar were the SR+ and the LR RWD, though I'm sure they could validate the AWD LR and P-.

 

[sixela]

Hello. No-one really knows. It might be, but there might be some higher QA on the motor(s) and/or uprated electrical bits.

Even if they bin the engines in two bins now, though, they're likely to put the low bin engines in the SR+, not the AWD LR and P-.

The back engine of a P- has the same power ratings as the one in the RWD LR (in effect the P is a LWD LR with an extra engine in front, while the AWD LR has less power supplied to the rear engine than on the RWD LR), and they sure made truckloads of these so it's unlikely only a small portion of engines can deliver this.

 

[WannabeOwner]

Apparently, this answers the question as to why they opened the RHD order books before having the vehicles/capacity to fulfil them. So they could make this statement to allay analysts criticisms of weaker than expected demand?

But demand has been very high in USA ... that's what will excite Stock market. 5,000 UK orders is not significant to Tesla and would not demonstrate Demand to Wall Street - especially as its just a one-off backlog, which Wall Street already knew was coming (same with Japan, Australia etc.)

Many others also hung on the hope Tesla wasn't deliberately lying to get orders in the books as quickly as possible

I'm with Peteski on this:

Only when the order book is open do they truly know demand for each model variant and individual specs

Reasonable to assume that Tesla have people/algorithms that will predict sales, but its only when the order book opens that you actually know quantity, run-rate and the options-mix that people (in that geographic territory) will want.

I can't begin to imagine that Tesla expected 500,000 advanced orders way back then ... what that did was to give them the confidence to tool-up to build 500,000 p.a. If initial orders had been way lower, say 100,000, you would have got your RHD at exactly the same lead time ... because Tesla would have been building 1,000 a week instead of 5,000 a week. So the good news, for EV lovers and the planet etc. is that EV Lovers initial generous pre-orders have encouraged Tesla to tool-up to build 350,000 cars a year at present, increasing to 500,000 soon. meanwhile Bolt, iPace, eTron are all around the 20K units p.a. which is a drop in the ocean by comparison, and other long-range Marques much in demand but battery limited so almost no chance of getting your hands on one. VW seem to be tooling up for big numbers of batteries ... but models only just starting to appear so "we don't know yet" and e.g. Samsung have cut back on their battery commitment to VW so VW may yet have trouble sourcing all-they-need in that regard.

Aside: saw an interesting comment recently along the lines of "Car makers don't say 'We want someone else to build our engines' so why are they not all saying 'We are building a battery factory'" ...

The referral code option was omitted on 1st May

FWIW I placed order on 01-may AND used a referral code (i.e. at the time of ordering, not as a post-ordering adjustment)

This is just typical Tesla chaos. Web team not added the Form Field or whatever, but the website mechanics happily accepted it

By capturing all the pent-up UK demand before June without having or intending to fulfil most of the orders helped them achieve it.

What if only 5 people had placed an order? You are assuming that Tesla could have known how many people would have placed orders.

The thing I find really surprising about the early orders is how many people did NOT place an order on 01-May. The date was pre-announced, loads of people with reservations (I assume), what stopped them on 01-May but enabled them in the days / weeks after that?

Until all that had happened Tesla didn't know the run rate. They also had no idea where people would decide to pick them up from ...

So then management go "OK, we have sold X cars and we have e.g. 10% of those available for end June delivery, how can we best match cars-in-transit to customers" which also includes their training rollout for service centres and so on and taking decisions on how best to achieve that. it looks out that significantly favoured Heathrow handovers ...

For an established Auto Manufacturer they would take months over that and have a slick plan. But doing it over a period of time costs a fortune ad/or needs significant resource... albeit that it results in a more polished result. Tesla doesn't have the cash, but also chooses to be different. They disrupt on all sorts of fronts, provided more than 50% of them are right they are moving forward. Clearly we would like their strike-rate to be 100%, but even in my business that doesn't happen

I originally hoped, back in May, that Tesla had opened the UK order book to help hit the June end sales (for Q2) and they had already made a big batch of RHD ahead of time. A UK Tesla employee said as much before May but this was clearly never the case as it has played out

What's a "big batch"? They shipped two boat loads, something like 200 on the first and 1,000-2,000 on the second. Seems like a big batch to me ... of course not everyone's backorder was in that batch.

I'm not aware of them limiting anything else, apart from de-listing the AWD

Unlike you I think that was a very significant change, and very specifically an example of management making a decision once they saw actual order quantities.. Something made Tesla make that change, I have no idea what of course, but one reason would be that the initial mix of orders suggested that the UK market would easily stomach the price for P- and Tesla were much better off selling those, initially, than LR. If you were young, with high insurance cost, or needed towbar then you were stuffed by that decision. If you had ordered LR and were happy with the price lift to P- you altered your order for a modest price increase and are presumably chuffed that you will get P- instead. LR will be back at some future point.

No VIN, no final invoice

Based on my experience you won't get either of those until very shortly before collection. The initial rush will die down, and the process may calm down too, but either way most people will be better off with a bit of time to sort out their arrangements than, for example, my experience which was about 4 days before collection - and an invoice saying "Payment required 7 days before collection" ...

I ordered a VW golf, fairly early in the process you're given a reference number, you can then watch your car being scheduled into manufacturing, all of the manufacturing stages, then moved to the docks and transported to the dealer - if fossils can do it surely it's simple on the small Tesla scale.

yeah, its simple, but Tesla have decided not to do it that way. There was talk in their Q2 announcement about "matching VINs to orders", they have reduced the number of options, and I think it is Tesla's way of getting to the point of delivering volume (as they were clearly struggling to ramp up back in the days when they offered many options on Model-S/X). Jaguar iPace has a list of options as long as your arm, which necessitates make-to-order. Tesla seems to be heading for made-to-assumed-orders ... upside of that is, once backlog is cleared, if you want one and aren't fussy about colour/spec you are likely to be matched with a VIN that is readily available, or coming-very-soon, and that order approach will generate a lot of good vibe "I only ordered by car yesterday and it is coming tomorrow" and of course you won't hear/notice about the ones that are going to take several weeks waiting for "that model". but, yeah, knowing that your car will be available on xx-Xxx would certainly help with sale of existing car, and whether it is before/after end of current Finance agreement, or even just "when to buy your last ever tank of Diesel"

 

[interbear]

There was talk in their Q2 announcement about "matching VINs to orders", they have reduced the number of options, and I think it is Tesla's way of getting to the point of delivering volume (as they were clearly struggling to ramp up back in the days when they offered many options on Model-S/X). Jaguar iPace has a list of options as long as your arm, which necessitates make-to-order. Tesla seems to be heading for made-to-assumed-orders ... upside of that is, once backlog is cleared, if you want one and aren't fussy about colour/spec you are likely to be matched with a VIN that is readily available, or coming-very-soon, and that order approach will generate a lot of good vibe "I only ordered by car yesterday and it is coming tomorrow" and of course you won't hear/notice about the ones that are going to take several weeks waiting for "that model". but, yeah, knowing that your car will be available on xx-Xxx would certainly help with sale of existing car, and whether it is before/after end of current Finance agreement, or even just "when to buy your last ever tank of Diesel"

I popped into the Bristol store this week to ask about realistic delivery dates for my order, I’m expecting September based on previous discussions. The person I spoke to confirmed that the policy for delivery was indeed “VIN matching” and that if I’d ordered a fairly standard configuration I “wouldn’t have to wait too long”. Which means little really and still no clearer in terms of date, but confirmation on VIN matching based on order config vs what they’ve built was interesting and supports your perspective above. My order is for a P-, Red, Black interior so I’ve no idea if that qualifies as standard or not. In my opinion given the lack of options most of the config would actually be pretty “standard”. So I just hope they’ve built some red M3s

On existing car, my “luxury car tax” of £465 is due 1st August so yes, it would be very nice to know when the M3 is likely to arrive for planning purposes. Reckon I’ll need to pay up and take the tax hit. Will do the 6 month option but it’s still a sore one.

 

[Jason71]

Reckon I’ll need to pay up and take the tax hit. Will do the 6 month option but it’s still a sore one.

The logic of getting 6 months of tax on a car you are selling, which we all used to do, no longer applies since the DVLA made VED non transferable and introduced Direct Debit.
it is now almost never a good idea to go six months. if you go 6 months you are paying a 10% higher price for the months you use. Whatever you do you get all of the remaining full months back when you sell, so ultimately getting 12 months is more upfront but ends up cheaper.
If you don't want to have to pay the money upfront pay by monthly DD. that only has a 5% premium and has the benefit that when you sell the payments just stop being taken. if you pay cash/card you have to wait for DVLA to send you a cheque.

 

[interbear]

The logic of getting 6 months of tax on a car you are selling, which we all used to do, no longer applies since the DVLA made VED non transferable and introduced Direct Debit.
it is now almost never a good idea to go six months. if you go 6 months you are paying a 10% higher price for the months you use. Whatever you do you get all of the remaining full months back when you sell, so ultimately getting 12 months is more upfront but ends up cheaper.
If you don't want to have to pay the money upfront pay by monthly DD. that only has a 5% premium and has the benefit that when you sell the payments just stop being taken. if you pay cash/card you have to wait for DVLA to send you a cheque.

Well thanks, that’s interesting, I genuinely did not know that the DVLA now refund you for unused tax when selling a car. I can’t recall that happening when I sold my last car, or perhaps it all got lost in the trade in numbers.

 

[Jason71]

Well thanks, that’s interesting, I genuinely did not know that the DVLA now refund you for unused tax when selling a car. I can’t recall that happening when I sold my last car, or perhaps it all got lost in the trade in numbers.

Yup been doing it since the abolition of the tax disc. You need to make sure you send off the v5 quickly or better still go online and do the change of ownership straight away. if you leave it to the trader and they don't rush or you delay and it goes into another month then that is a whole month lost.
They have also had to drop the £2.50 fee for credit cards now as well so the other option is 12 months upfront on an AMEX card with 1% cash back. Then sell after one month. get a cheque for 11 months back but keep your £4.65

Of course the other side of the coin is if you sell on July 10th say you still pay for the whole of July. if there is a new owner straight away, private sale or dealer flips it quickly, then new owner pays from the start of July and kerching DVLA gets July twice.

 

[MrBadger]

I'm pretty sure they have always done it. I use to take car on and off Sorn long before no tax discs, often for just short periods, and can't remember being financially out of pocket by having a taxed car sat off road. Im sure I just cashed the tax back in when I stopped using it and got pro rata refund for the whole months I was not using it. Might be wrong though, its been a while and maybe I just use to tax it 6 months.

 

[RamsfanJim]

The thing I find really surprising about the early orders is how many people did NOT place an order on 01-May. The date was pre-announced, loads of people with reservations (I assume), what stopped them on 01-May but enabled them in the days / weeks after that?

I called Tesla on the day, and was told because of my early reservation Inwould be one of the first to receive my car, regardless of order date - they told me PCP would be available within the next 2 weeks , so then I could determine spec I wanted based on payments.
The following weekend I went into a Tesla store - they reiterated that early reservation holders would get the car first, but said I should place my order and could always change it once PCP prices were available.
That was why I waited a week - but turns out they were all lying anyway... (or didn't know - so they shouldn't have said it..)

 

[WannabeOwner]

I genuinely did not know that the DVLA now refund you for unused tax when selling a car

Its typical of the modern con we all get stung with - like "Pay to display" and buying an extra hour "just in case you are delayed"

You sell on 15 June and get tax refund for "full months from 01-July" ...
... buyer has to pay for Tax "disc" from 01-June

I am doubting that you can sell a car at midnight on 30-June so neither of you is out of pocket !!

 

[Pugg5ter]

The debate about AWD LR interesting for me. I ordered on 1st May and went for P+ then couple of days later downgraded to AWD LR, which then disappeared. I’ve been trying to fathom where the best value lies - have original invoice for P+ and new invoice for AWD LR...and been playing with the current configurator (cue analysis aplenty).

I can’t be certain if I’m being done over not upgrading to P-. For me the extra range was important and that won’t have changed. Just would like definitive cost structure and some clarity on the physical differences between models.

As you can probably tell, whilst i’ve been following this car for some time, I’m a relative novice in terms of the mechanics of the models.

Clear as mud!

 

[WannabeOwner]

the extra range was important and that won’t have changed

How often? I think that is the crux.

If you are going to stop at a Supercharger anyway, and have range to get there, you are better off driving faster and charging longer (overall journey time is shorter).

Most of my borderline journeys are solved by heavy traffic / roadworks slowing me down. I have a regular out-of-range journey where (when i plan it) I will not be able to reach the Supercharger en route and will need a 15 minute detour to a Supercharger which is closer to my start point. I haven't done that journey a single time, yet, where I have had to make that detour. At the point at which the road splits I have SatNav set for the further Supercharger, and I check the "predicted arrival" SOC %age and every time I have had enough juice to reach it.

I have deliberately driven more carefully, and sometimes drafted a truck to try to improve range, but in practice traffic delays have solved it for me.

So I am not sure that a P-model, driven carefully, compared to LR is going to make enough difference to be make-or-break. If you do that absolutely border-line journey often then "ok", but if its once a month then you could achieve that by driving at 5-10 MPH slower and maybe? that would be worthwhile so you can have the P-model the rest of the month's journeys

Try the route in A Better Route Planner and try the different models, and also compare Winter / Summer temperatures

My range-challenged days have very different consumption. One leg might be "easy reach of Supercharger" and I am up around 400 wH/mile ... the next leg might be borderline so I drive more frugally (still at speed-limit plus-a-bit) and get down to 300 wH/mile - and that's in a Model-S, the Model-3 will be quite a bit more frugal than that.