Hope OP's situation is resolved by now.
My mother's Model 3 had a similar situation just a few months ago. My elderly parents don't drive much, so car is sitting garaged for 5-7 days at a time unplugged, and charged every few weeks, when it reaches 20%, to about 80%. Don't use any touchscreen features of the car, except HVAC heating/cooling and occasional GPS routing - but not Cabin Overheat Protection (even living in Vegas), no radio/streaming, no apps.
Most of the time, phantom drain is low, <1% per day - they were stranded overseas for 5 weeks when COVID started, car barely lost 10% that whole time. But both on their car and our Model 3 and S, the loggers show that the cars can enter a period of days or weeks of higher phantom drain, where the car won't sleep (or more accurately sleep and wake up right away). Through the data logger and actual events, this is the timeline:
-On 12/30, they receive the major update 2021.44.25 (logged),. Around the same time, the car popped up the 12v battery warning. One could've been before or after, they only notice both on their next drive days later.
-On 1/7 6pm, several days after their last drive, the car suddenly enters a period where it won't sleep, and excessive phantom drain (and presumed 12v cycling) instead of 0.1-0.3 kwh/day to 3-5 kwh/day. But this is unnoticed.
-On 1/10, they do a few short drives, charge the car to 80% SOC. High phantom drain continues
-On 1/15, logger shows the drain drops from 3-5 kwh/day to 1 kwh/day for a few days, before climbing back up a few days later. Car is not sleeping well the whole time.
-On 1/20, logger drops out due to API token refresh, car is at 43% SOC. They do a 3 mi drive the next day that is unlogged but car arrives home at 120mi range. They debate whether to charge but decide not to, expecting low phantom drain. Tesla will have the logs from 1/20 to 1/30, but we don't.
-On 1/30, the Tesla apps notifies us that the HV battery is at 0% SOC (so 4% range loss per day). They plug in the car and charge to 80%. Excessive phantom drain continues, by now I've noticed.
-On 2/28, excessive phantom drain abruptly stops, drops down to 0.3kwh/day. No firmware updates since 12/30. Unknown if MCU rebooted, since logger doesn't capture that.
-On 3/2, they decide to proactively replace the 12v battery at Tesla Service Center. It's covered under warranty.
-On 3/21, next firmware update to 2022.4.5.
My observations from this forum and having data loggers on three Tesla vehicles, is that there are a number of situations that can cause excessive phantom drain:
1) a bad recent firmware update can cause the car to not sleep well, causing phantom drain, excessive 12v cycling, and subsequent HV battery drain
2) an OK recent firmware update, without a full manual power cycle of the MCU, can randomly cause the car to not sleep well, causing phantom drain, excessive 12v cycling, and subsequent HV battery drain - sometimes resolved by car eventually rebooting itself
3) no firmware update, but just a badly written app, can randomly cause memory leaks (computer, not physical), causing the car to not sleep well, causing phantom drain, excessive 12v cycling and subsequent HV battery drain
4) a bad or dying 12v battery can cause the car to not sleep well or other wonky behavior, reinforce excessive 12v cycling, and subsequent HV battery drain
5) owner use of certain car features while parked can cause the car both to not sleep but also use more 12v battery, causing excessive 12v cycling, and subsequent HV battery drain. Most of these features will de-activate below 20% HV SOC or so, to protect the 12v and HV batteries - I think at this stage of firmware maturity, Tesla tries to protect owners from themselves and it's very hard to quickly drain the HV battery while just parked.
6) misbehaving data loggers can prevent car from sleeping (probably not a factor in our case, since same logger for four years), causing car not to sleep well, causing phantom drain, excessive 12v cycling, and subsequent HV battery drain
So did the firmware update cause the 12v battery cycling, causing it to go bad? or was a bad 12v battery the root cause to begin with, which can cause unexpected firmware and app behavior (there's even a separate pop-up warning for this)? Or was it just a coincident memory leak that started and stopped outside of the other events? Who the heck knows...
My conclusion is that yes, there are 1-2 behaviors an owner could do that could cause excessive drain, but there are also many things with the car itself that could cause it as well.
OP response seems to have ruled out the most likely owner behaviors...but my advice is that trying to win the argument with Tesla SC and leaving the car for days at 0% SOC in the cold may not be good for battery degradation long-term. Either pony up for the 12v battery (which may not even be the root problem) and do it yourself, and be done. Or have Tesla Roadside Assistance tow the car to the SC - per policy they will assist but you may have to pay (but once they start diagnosing the car logs, they may pull up one of the other root causes, so both the 12v and the tow may then be covered under warranty).