Citizen-T
Active Member
Elon says it is bigger. That doesn't mean he is right, and some of that is already baked in for sure, but I'm still not moving anything around until I hear what it is.
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Elon says it is bigger. That doesn't mean he is right, and some of that is already baked in for sure, but I'm still not moving anything around until I hear what it is.
K Hall
Member
There is very little volume available on the sell side. $46.50 looks like the next point with some interest.
Looks like there are some standing sell-orders at $43; it'll be interesting to see how quickly those are picked off or retracted.
Citizen-T
Active Member
I don't know many executives that strategize around stock price in this way. TSLA's price is a whole lot more interesting to us on a day-to-day basis than it is to those that are trying to change the world.
I think it is far more likely that the timing is a sign than Tuesday's announcement is related to today's announcement. I am becoming more and more convinced by the theory that Elon will exercise his options which he could only do after achieving profitability. That's the reason for the timing. The question still remains: what will Tesla do with this influx of cash? It isn't a ton of cash, to do something really big, they will need to leverage it in some way. Perhaps a joint venture/partnership with some other major company? I've always liked the superchargers at Cracker Barrel story. It makes a lot of sense.
This spike is so crazy for me. Tempted to sell half like you usually advise but I feel like patience pending tomorrow would be a better move. Tomorrow can be a lot of things...
rolosrevenge
Dr. EVS
Interesting, all of the 60 kWh packs came with supercharging. Anyone who forgot it and was regretful as can be can now get it. Also, love this prices spike. So glad I put everything in my Roth IRA into TSLA back when it was at $35.
Citizen-T
Active Member
Yeah, I know, I've been wrestling with that too. When I said I was going to wait for tomorrow, I didn't think we'd be up 23% today. I am starting to think I should stick to my disciplines and take some profits. Though, half your position is way more than I would advise. I was thinking of trimming the top 15%.
Elon is pretty confident about this announcement tomorrow. The fact that our forums have been unable to converge on a likely candidate for what it will be makes me think that the market will also be surprised. That said, there is the possibility that the announcement disappoints; that the market got too carried away. In that case, it could create a buying opportunity.
So yeah, I won't tell you not to take something off the table at these prices. I might even do it myself.
CyberDutchie
Active Member
Profit taking still can be gambling. If you've just sold waiting for the next low, and then this happens, it's hard to see how the profit taking was a good thing.
I'd be interested, Citizen, if you would do a quick compare let's say since the beginning of the year, with your trades holding long vs. selling a little and then buying more. Which would have been the winning strategy?
I WOULD have waited for tomorrow, but had a standing sell order at $45 for a portion of my position. Had no idea this 1st quarter profitability news would come out when/how it did. Grrrrr that I might lose out on additional profit, but I did get a good gain from what I did sell (and will jump back in with as the inevitable pull-back occurs later). Do have another sell order at $50. I might cancel that one to see what happens tomorrow.
EarlyAdopter
Active Member
Wow. Big news and big moves today!
While tomorrow's announcement may be bigger from Elon's point of view, and may be bigger to the EV movement, it may be far less big to Wall Street than Q1 profitability.
Unless it's something along the lines of Musk exercising his first incentive stock options and plowing the proceeds back into the company or paying off DOE loans personally, there may not be another huge move up.
Exciting times for sure though!
While tomorrow's announcement may be bigger from Elon's point of view, and may be bigger to the EV movement, it may be far less big to Wall Street than Q1 profitability.
Unless it's something along the lines of Musk exercising his first incentive stock options and plowing the proceeds back into the company or paying off DOE loans personally, there may not be another huge move up.
Exciting times for sure though!
Citizen-T
Active Member
I'm trying to track down...how much money could Musk raise if he exercises his options then turns around and sells them at the prices we are seeing today? If I remember correctly the options are to buy at about $30 a share. So he stands to make a profit of some $15 a share. Was the first batch about 500,000 shares? That'd give him only $7.5 million before taxes. Add to that the $15 million that Tesla would get from exercising the options and we still don't have that big of a number. They certainly aren't putting the DOE loan to rest with that.
Zzzz...
Member
I believe it is $6.63 a share, if you are talking about those 6.7M shares he eligible from 2009.
Citizen-T
Active Member
Oh, I'm completely looking at the wrong thing then. Nevermind, let me look those up.
Looks like the contrarian was right a few weeks ago. Wonder how many short sellers got wiped today...
Mizzou Students Love Tesla - Rick Santelli Loves Natural Gas on Vimeo
Mizzou Students Love Tesla - Rick Santelli Loves Natural Gas on Vimeo
Norbert
TSLA will win
With share price about 15% up today (still moving, at 15.44% right now), how can tomorrow be *more* important? 
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Just for the record: closing price is $43.93, up $6.04 (15.94%).
This will direct a lot of attention on tomorrow's announcement...
- - - Updated - - -
Just for the record: closing price is $43.93, up $6.04 (15.94%).
This will direct a lot of attention on tomorrow's announcement...
CapitalistOppressor
Active Member
I thought I recalled it being ~$9/share. $6.63 is a lot closer to the actual number than $30 though.
The news tomorrow will definitely be Gen III
They cancelled the 40kwH Model S, and instead are giving 4% of reservation holders a 60kwh pack.
Initially I thought that the 40kwH performance was too close to the 60 (ie the 60 had better range and efficiency than predicted based on the 85kwh) and they worried that the 40 would canabalize 60kwh sales. Thus giving away a larger pack would still save them money, does anyone really believe that it's cheaper for them to give away a 10,000 dollar battery pack than to make 4% of their cars 40kwhr?. I suspect this is also being done to preserve the model S as a high end car and because they plan on announcing the Gen III which will fill the 30 to 60k void. If not it's a stupid plan because even though only 4% of early adopters chose 40kwh I suspect going forward that a higher percentage of new buyers would have.
They cancelled the 40kwH Model S, and instead are giving 4% of reservation holders a 60kwh pack.
Initially I thought that the 40kwH performance was too close to the 60 (ie the 60 had better range and efficiency than predicted based on the 85kwh) and they worried that the 40 would canabalize 60kwh sales. Thus giving away a larger pack would still save them money, does anyone really believe that it's cheaper for them to give away a 10,000 dollar battery pack than to make 4% of their cars 40kwhr?. I suspect this is also being done to preserve the model S as a high end car and because they plan on announcing the Gen III which will fill the 30 to 60k void. If not it's a stupid plan because even though only 4% of early adopters chose 40kwh I suspect going forward that a higher percentage of new buyers would have.
Seems very unlikely given the fact that both the Model S and Model X announcements were grand events with many members of this forum in attendance along with live broadcasts.
It would completely out of character and a general announcement without a prototype would be a let down. Hope I'm wrong.
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