Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[humbaba]

What part of "multi-click" or "to weird screens" wasn't clear? Sometimes it's found its way into screens inside apps that I didn't even know existed

Okay, but if that's the case, then how would adding additional confirmations change anything? I mean, if you are already getting multi-click and into "weird screens" I take it nothing is off the table.

The purpose for having a confirmation dialog is not to stop a drunk purchase, or a butt-click. Its to give someone a chance if they accidentally click the wrong GUI element, but are otherwise aware of what they are doing. They can then click cancel. It doesn't help with the butt-click** because more random touches can simply confirm* and it doesn't help with the drunk.

For extra important operations sometimes a two-stage confirmation is used. "Are you sure?" followed by "Are you really sure?" I've watched someone manage to click through all of that because neurons were misfiring and they did exactly the opposite of what they meant to.

So what? You can't cure all errors. If Tesla does not in fact have a confirmation dialog ("Are you sure?") then of course they should add that. Not to stop the claimed situations under discussion, but because it is a good practice so if someone who is aware of what is going on accidentally clicks the wrong thing they can back out. Heck, since there's no refund even putting ("Are you sure? There is no refund.") as a second confirmation could make sense.


* sure, the more steps you add the lower the probability of managing to navigate them by accident. Or on purpose. It just gets foolish.

** the solution for the butt-click is the "lock device" -- not perfect as sometimes the user may think they have locked it before putting it in their pocket and not actually have done so. But it is the only effective way to stop the problem.

 

[MC3OZ]

Okay, but if that's the case, then how would adding additional confirmations change anything? I mean, if you are already getting multi-click and into "weird screens" I take it nothing is off the table.

The purpose for having a confirmation dialog is not to stop a drunk purchase, or a butt-click. Its to give someone a chance if they accidentally click the wrong GUI element, but are otherwise aware of what they are doing. They can then click cancel. It doesn't help with the butt-click** because more random touches can simply confirm* and it doesn't help with the drunk.

For extra important operations sometimes a two-stage confirmation is used. "Are you sure?" followed by "Are you really sure?" I've watched someone manage to click through all of that because neurons were misfiring and they did exactly the opposite of what they meant to.

So what? You can't cure all errors. If Tesla does not in fact have a confirmation dialog ("Are you sure?") then of course they should add that. Not to stop the claimed situations under discussion, but because it is a good practice so if someone who is aware of what is going on accidentally clicks the wrong thing they can back out. Heck, since there's no refund even putting ("Are you sure? There is no refund.") as a second confirmation could make sense.


* sure, the more steps you add the lower the probability of managing to navigate them by accident. Or on purpose. It just gets foolish.

** the solution for the butt-click is the "lock device" -- not perfect as sometimes the user may think they have locked it before putting it in their pocket and not actually have done so. But it is the only effective way to stop the problem.

Tesla can add an optional "PIN to buy" feature .. you need to key in a 4 digit no to confirm app purchases.

 

[keydiver]

My hunch is Tesla's data is going to show "Driver Error", perhaps there are additional safety protocols that can be added to the software, and perhaps these have already been added.

Didn't they already add one a couple years ago? If I recall, they added a feature that was supposed to make it hard for you to accelerate toward a wall right in front of you. I have never tested it though.
About the cruise/autopilot stalk on the older Model S: yes, I have done that a couple times, and wondered why the car was picking up speed, but that was as I was approaching an intersection, putting on my turn signal, and it disengaged as soon as I touched the brake. What this guy is talking about is probably the ones where someone hit the gas instead of the brake and ran their Tesla through a storefront. It has happened, often by an elderly woman driver here in Florida. But, as someone else pointed out, this happens in EVERY model car you can name. I remember back when I first had my 2006 Prius, and the same stories were circulated, probably by the same big oil FUD machine we are fighting now. In 15 years, my Prius has NEVER suddenly accelerated. I wish!

 

[Curt Renz]

Based on options open interest before the opening, Opricot calculates TSLA MaxPain for today's expiration as $460. It is heavily skewed low by the large number of options expiring at strike prices quite low relative to the current share price. A cursory survey suggests that a more reasonable MaxPain target for large option writers could be $510. But that can change throughout the rest of the session.

While this is not a Triple Witching quarterly expiration, the size of the open interest has been large due to the contracts having opened over a year ago as LEAPS designed to push potential profits into a later tax year.

So there will likely be much options related activity today that can affect the share price. Many option owners and writers will be trying to close positions before the market closing. Perhaps some large options writers will in position to manipulate the share price toward what they perceive as MaxPain. Keep in mind that the closing of options positions often also involves the closing of share positions that had been hedges.

Quick bursts of high volume share price movement today are far more likely related to options considerations than activity by long-term oriented institutions and funds. These bursts can trigger cascades of stop limits set by weak longs.

A big consideration in all of this is the fact that options have an expiration date while stock shares do not. Thus options traders may feel frenzied today, while strong shareholders can remain calm.

Opricot Open Interest|Volume|Max Pain

Specific discussion of the manipulation in TSLA today begins at the 1:22 minute mark of this video.

SMB Capital - near today's closing:

 

[lklundin]

Over on Twitter Troy has noticed that new Model 3 orders in China have delivery dates shifted to Q2,
Troy Teslike on Twitter

He is guessing/estimating 8k - 13k MIC Model 3 (SR) deliveries in Q1.

What do people here think of that range?

BTW, why does Tesla China use its own separate domain, tesla.cn ? - this throws off statistics on the tesla.com domain.

 

[sundaymorning]

Where did shorts get the “sudden acceleration” scheme from? I suppose when Tesla stocks suddenly accelerated from 250 to $500 I would be contacting every agency to complain if I was shorting. Next stop? Contact the SEC and complain about sudden “earnings acceleration”
without proper warning. Next year? Contact the UAW about “sudden factory 4 accelerating” without proper housing for employees in place.

 

[printf42]

OT:
‎Quoth the Raven: Quoth the Raven #166 - Sang Lucci & QTR: Destroying Your Trading Account And Going Broke on Apple Podcasts

To the real honest shorts who just quietly short and didn’t actively spread lies:
This might help you navigate your situation, there are some good suggestions on avoiding some common mistakes people make under some conditions. (actually some longs including me made same mistakes last year)

To the shorts who is actively trying to damage the company by sh*ting all over the place:
This is just to mock you, you can ignore and continue to pile in.

To the shorts who is shorting as an expense to gain elsewhere:
I don’t have anything to say, but want to remind you it’s never too late to switch your career to something you can proudly tell your grand children.

Cheers to all longs who are still HODORing.
Have a nice long weekend!

 

[dc_h]

Yes, now -- the investigation is officially open.

I would expect Tesla to provide car logs immediately and put the investigation to rest quickly.
Any reasons Tesla would hold off on sharing the data with the govt? Is it possible they wouldn’t have logs from all or most of the cars?

 

[ZeApelido]

Great collation of analyst quotes by @ValueAnalyst

ValueAnalyst on Twitter

 

[kalefranz]

Is it possible they wouldn’t have logs from all or most of the cars?

Privacy opt-out of data sharing/uploading?

 

[MC3OZ]

Didn't they already add one a couple years ago? If I recall, they added a feature that was supposed to make it hard for you to accelerate toward a wall right in front of you. I have never tested it though.
About the cruise/autopilot stalk on the older Model S: yes, I have done that a couple times, and wondered why the car was picking up speed, but that was as I was approaching an intersection, putting on my turn signal, and it disengaged as soon as I touched the brake. What this guy is talking about is probably the ones where someone hit the gas instead of the brake and ran their Tesla through a storefront. It has happened, often by an elderly woman driver here in Florida. But, as someone else pointed out, this happens in EVERY model car you can name. I remember back when I first had my 2006 Prius, and the same stories were circulated, probably by the same big oil FUD machine we are fighting now. In 15 years, my Prius has NEVER suddenly accelerated. I wish!

Yes, the have done this.

 

[LJS22]

Where did shorts get the “sudden acceleration” scheme from? I suppose when Tesla stocks suddenly accelerated from 250 to $500 I would be contacting every agency to complain if I was shorting. Next stop? Contact the SEC and complain about sudden “earnings acceleration”
without proper warning. Next year? Contact the UAW about “sudden factory 4 accelerating” without proper housing for employees in place.

There were two odd accidents where a Tesla drove through a business building, and one into the back of a fire truck, They crafted this nice story of sudden acceleration and started reaching out to Tesla owners in accidents to convince them that Tesla’s have this bug so the accident wasn’t their fault.

 

[kengchang]

Over on Twitter Troy has noticed that new Model 3 orders in China have delivery dates shifted to Q2,
Troy Teslike on Twitter

He is guessing/estimating 8k - 13k MIC Model 3 (SR) deliveries in Q1.

What do people here think of that range?

BTW, why does Tesla China use its own separate domain, tesla.cn ? - this throws off statistics on the tesla.com domain.

LR/P are also showing Q2 2020

 

[dc_h]

Over on Twitter Troy has noticed that new Model 3 orders in China have delivery dates shifted to Q2,
Troy Teslike on Twitter

He is guessing/estimating 8k - 13k MIC Model 3 (SR) deliveries in Q1.

What do people here think of that range?

BTW, why does Tesla China use its own separate domain, tesla.cn ? - this throws off statistics on the tesla.com domain.

It’s probably a wise guesstimate. We don’t have solid data. Early model 3 production was highly variable. Shanghai will probably be better, but they have the cash flow luxury of being very focused on quality over quantity. That will probably speed up production faster in the long run, no rebuilds and post production fixes, but could mean modest q1 production. On the other hand, they’ve been kicking ass lately, so maybe his hedging will look ridiculously conservative on April 3rd.
Q1 is the shortest quarter and includes Chinese New Year, so ramping up could be 20,000 or more, but 10,000 is probably a good number if they are hitting 1500+ in late March.

 

[dc_h]

With earnings on January 29th, does anyone else expect Model Y reveal at that time? If they have been building model Y, where are they and how are they shipping them? Could they store 5000 or 10,000 cars and have them ready for delivery? I haven’t seen any Fremont lot pictures lately and they could use covered trucks if they are trying to have cars ready in February.

Crazy?

 

[ggr]

Here’s the cause of the AH drop:

Late Friday, NHTSA released a redacted version of the lengthy petition that said “Tesla vehicles experience unintended acceleration at rates far exceeding other cars on the roads” & urged NHTSA “to recall all Model S, Model X & Model 3 vehicles produced from 2013-present.”

I guess they added that last bit to f with the algos and instill fear

Oh, good, I get to keep my Roadster and 2012 Model S.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Can anyone translate this? They’re claiming to have third row photos from Model Y:

https://news-coffee.com/2020/01/18/tesla-model-y

 

[StealthP3D]

I would expect Tesla to provide car logs immediately and put the investigation to rest quickly.
Any reasons Tesla would hold off on sharing the data with the govt? Is it possible they wouldn’t have logs from all or most of the cars?

Why do people keep talking about an investigation? As far as I can tell there is none. IMO, there is unlikely to be one. It was a nuisance complaint, filed by a short-seller to move the market and the NHTSA is well aware that this kind of activity has been taking place for some time. They are not known to perform busywork (active investigation) just because someone filed a complaint.
Unless you can cite a reliable source that the NHTSA is investigating, then please stop!

 

[JustMe]

Can anyone translate this? They’re claiming to have third row photos from Model Y:

https://news-coffee.com/2020/01/18/tesla-model-y

This seems to be an evaluation of pictures of the Model Y prototype that were found in a Reddit post.

Rough translation—>

These are pictures of the third row of the model Y
The third row was thought to be only suitable for children and small women. But it may not be as narrow as expected.

The picture shows not enough space for even children’s feet.
By sliding the second row seats forward you can make space for your legs. So it may not be as narrow as people thought.

 

[Spksmp]

Can anyone translate this? They’re claiming to have third row photos from Model Y:

https://news-coffee.com/2020/01/18/tesla-model-y

I read it as the pictures are from reddit, it doesn't look as cramped as they expected, and there are rumors MY could begin deliveries as early as February.

Nothing new here.