Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
TSLA trades almost 15 million shares daily (22.8 million today). It was as high as 24 million average (30-day) earlier this year (Tesla 30-Day Average Daily Volume | TSLA ), so this may not be required or even asked.

View attachment 564578
Tesla trades the same share back and forth 10 million time per day. Yes I am exaggerating but the shares shorted every day are at the 50% level too. Yes that is not the exact shares shorted and the actual is lower but that is still EXTREMELY high. In reality tho Tesla is trading shares back and forth by bots and some of those shares are actually ending up in the hands of more longs who are not going to sell. That means every day the stock get less and less liquid and negative macro days are required (and lucky they happen for some) or TSLA would go parabolic. If a large amount of buyers show up the price IMO would become too high considering the price starts going straight up all on it's own now with the same player. Just wait until new players enter the scene.
 
The problem is not exactly the limited freefloat, but the amount of shares borrowed by short seller who have to cover. In other words: not Teslas problem...
The S&P committee could see where this company was going a long time ago, included it in March and been heroes. Now Tesla has to dilute to save them?
 
Item 13 is approved.

Told ya.

The one commissioner insisting on another delay surprised me.

The judge was really anxious to get out of there.
Travis County vote just passed yes for Tesla.

4 yes - 0 no - 1 abstention (wanted more study time)

Hence, Travis County approved Tesla building a factory there.
 
4 yes - 0 no - 1 abstention (wanted more study time)

Hence, Travis County approved Tesla building a factory there.

Common sense prevailed in the end. Elon would have probably said to hell with this if the court business was not completed today. They even debated if it makes sense to delay it by another week. Unbelievable.

The Tesla rep mentioned that Tesla was in discussions with another state and that pretty much ended the debate and they voted to approve.
 
4 yes - 0 no - 1 abstention (wanted more study time)

Hence, Travis County approved Tesla building a factory there.

Statesman - half hour ago: Travis County gives thumbs up to Tesla tax break

Excerpt:

Tesla — which hasn’t said when it plans to make a decision on where to build the plant — still could seek a taxpayer-funded grant for the project from the Texas Enterprise Fund, the state’s deal-closing reserve that’s aimed at providing the final carrot to swing a corporate decision.
 
RBC issued an investor survey (n=35) to gauge sentiment for the auto sector ahead of Q2 earnings, with an interesting comment that I've highlighted.

When asked which OEM do you prefer, TSLA was "most neutral, a step back from April survey results (likely given the run in stock price +161% since our last survey) and perhaps another data point that [recent] TSLA interest is not necessarily being fueled by institutional investors"

Buy side expectations (AKA "Whisper numbers") are high relative to the sell side for TSLA deliveries.
  • 50% of respondents expect over 800K deliveries for 2021. (800K+ was the highest option)
  • 54% of respondents expect over 1.8M deliveries in 2025. (1.8M+ was the highest option)
They then stated, "Perhaps we had faulty questioning logic here given heavy skew to the 800k+/1.8M+ buckets" :D
 
Last edited:
Several people already posted a link to Rob Maurer discussing the mechanics of a possible S&P 500 inclusion. What I found very interesting, starting at 13:50, is that a source with - according to Rob - inside knowledge of the inclusion process told him that other companies have in the past been asked to do a secondary offering to improve liquidity.

We all know that TSLA inclusion will probably lead to (extreme?) illiquidity of the stock, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise if the committee asks Tesla to do the same. Tesla may not have an immediate need for more cash, but they may have an immediate need for more shares.


The S&P indexes need to buy $40B! Even 10% of this is a $4B offering would be bigger than any offering I remember and more $$ than Tesla probably could use now.

This really begins to frame the issue. Buying $40B of TSLA will not be easy.
 
Last edited:
RBC issued an investor survey (n=35) to gauge sentiment for the auto sector ahead of Q2 earnings, with an interesting comment that I've highlighted.

When asked which OEM do you prefer, TSLA was "most neutral, a step back from April survey results (likely given the run in stock price +161% since our last survey) and perhaps another data point that [recent] TSLA interest is not necessarily being fueled by institutional investors"

Buy side expectations (AKA "Whisper numbers") are high for TSLA deliveries.
  • 50% of respondents expect over 800K deliveries for 2021. (800K+ was the highest option)
  • 54% of respondents expect over 1.8M deliveries in 2025. (1.8M+ was the highest option)
They then stated, "Perhaps we had faulty questioning logic here given heavy skew to the 800k+/1.8M+ buckets" :D

Elon's estimate in the Oct 2019 ARK interview was for 1.5 million deliveries in 2021 and 3 million in 2023..
 
We all know that TSLA inclusion will probably lead to (extreme?) illiquidity of the stock, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise if the committee asks Tesla to do the same. Tesla may not have an immediate need for more cash, but they may have an immediate need for more shares.

Yes that also caught my attention, I'm in favour of a raise for say 25-30% of the shares funds need to buy for the following reasons.

1. The committee and funds may require it, or strongly request it. If Tesla says no, they will not add Tesla, or will use some other mechanism to solve the problem.

2. With front-running etc, the short term price spike may not be stellar, and if it is might not last long..

3. While Tesla may not need the money, they can use the money accelerating investment timelines when it is sensible to do so.

So I would not be surprised if the committee, the funds and Tesla agree to and if Tesla has a good use in mind already for the money.,

Keep in mind the funds are more or less buy and hold investors in any new shares issued.