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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Someone already tweeted that the Tesla salesforce had increased by 95200 in Q2
a bit the same...Anyway, you have a pretty large Twitter following, more than most of us here...
Hey I have...let me look....OVER 7 followers!Someone already tweeted that the Tesla salesforce had increased by 95200 in Q2
Anyway, you have a pretty large Twitter following, more than most of us here...
I haven't been able to follow this thread so closely recently, so apologies if this has been discussed to death, but given latest information what do people think Tesla's cell supply/manufacturing plans are for the next 12-24 months?
One possibility:
One possibility:
- August/September 2019 - Shut down S/X manufacturing lines. Prepare for interior refresh (90%?). Possibly remove S body line, upgrade X line for both S&X production (50%?). Potentially also prepare to switch S/X to 2170 cells/packs produced in GF1 (50%?) (depending if Panasonic's June fixes can get output to the 35gwh capacity). If S/X is switching to 2170, also shut down the S/X Panasonic cell factory in Japan to refit equipment for 2170 format. Use this Japan factory to supply GF3 in China (maybe easier now China has removed its local battery supply list? This may have been what Tesla was waiting on for finalising GF3 cell supply?).
- Summer/Autumn 2019 - Launch new repair parts supply operation from new lathrop facility. Shut down warehouses in Fremont to move some Fremont parts supply to Lathrop for just in time manufacturing.
- 2020 - Use space from removed S line, S/X battery lines and parts warehouses, together with other unused space, to build manufacturing for Y at Fremont.
- 2020 - Build in-house cell manufacturing for Y and Semi, either at GF1 or at Maxwell's Arizona ultra-capacitor factory. It feels optimistic that Tesla could get new cell technology to mass manufacture so quickly, but the timing of the cell/powertrain investor day this year, plus holding back on new Panasonic supply expansion seems to point this way.
- 2020 - Build Semi manufacturing at GF1
- 2020 - Start building GF4 in Europe.
JusRelax
Active Member
Someone already tweeted that the Tesla salesforce had increased by 95200 in Q2
Anyway, you have a pretty large Twitter following, more than most of us here...
I find it funny you say this when you have 600+ more followers than me..... and you only have 638 followers LOL.
You may have mistaken me for someone else haha.
Yep I just saw his channel due to the link posted by you.All credit goes to GasTrol(creator of this video), he deserves more views
I like his style...and of course his substance!
Some of us were speculating the in-house cells would be for S/X since it's lower volume. Then they could use Panasonic for Model Y/etc.
Another intriguing post from someone threw out the idea that maybe Tesla could buy Panasonic's cylindrical cell business entirely. Might be too much to take on at one time for Tesla though.
dc_h
Active Member
I think the pundits talk about profit is way over rated, I do think that until Tesla maintains positive free cash flow, it will be easy to manipulate the price and cap any rise. Lack of profit will be mocked, if it happens, but it won’t matter 3 years from now if Tesla can grow unit volume over 50% or more. It’s grown closer to 70% since 2012 and if they maintain 50% for 5 more years they are over 2 million annual production. There doesn’t appear to be serious competition planned, at scale, until 5 years from now either.
Things that will change the landscape for EV’s against Tesla:
- VW: they continue to talk a big game but do not appear to have batteries for more than 100,000 cars a year before 2021. Their Audi brand at this point is a catalyst for Tesla, showing that EV is the future and the future is happening at Tesla.
- Toyota: they sound like 2009 Audi. It will be interesting to see if they and Panasonic can ramp up and avoid getting sued by Tesla for IP infringement. If they don’t scale or go 300 miles they again reaffirm Tesla’s lead and assist the brand.
- China: growth is so big, but only a few brands will be around in 10 years. BYD and Tesla are at the top of this food chain.
Alphacrux
Member
I know I paid 108K. I will have to check my invoice for specifics.ThxNice! Free ludicrous upgrade
I took the time to check again, your configuration also used to be 108K, unless wayback machine is wrong... I don't know.
so where is that $500
Design Your Model S | Tesla
Thanks to all the guru's that do the financial spread sheets. I wonder what you all think the SP would do if Tesla pulled a 200-300 million profit out of it's hat when it report's this quarter and had SP 500 inclusion shortly after.
It seems like a possibility since we don't know how and when the FCA payment will be claimed as well as extent of other ZEF credit's.
A positive surprise like that would be most welcome indeed.
It seems like a possibility since we don't know how and when the FCA payment will be claimed as well as extent of other ZEF credit's.
A positive surprise like that would be most welcome indeed.
Just one example: in the Netherlands, EVs leased in 2019 by companies are added to salaries (and thus taxed) at 4% of the catalog value per annum for EVs instead of 22% for ICE cars. For cars registered In 2020, that goes up to 8%, and you can't get an e-Niro, Kona EV or e-tron in 2019 if you order now...
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Pras
Member
One very minor incentive but I was surprised to know. Yesterday my friend from Jersey city (thinking about buying an Audi SUV) told that EV parking is only $200 per month vs. $300 for regular cars. Of course $100 / month is a lot of incentive.
Anyway, I did my best to sell him model 3 but seems model Y (SUV) would have been the car he is looking for. Can’t emphasize how important is for Tesla to launch model Y soon. Let’s see where he goes.
Happy 4th July, you yankees - heard that you've got some tanks on parade, getting more like Red Square every day
Or President Camacho.
Chickenlittle
Banned
To clarify my comment, reading the analyst statements are dangerous even if you don’t follow advice. I learned this years ago when swabb would call me almost daily telling me my options on tesla were too risky and asking me to justify my strategy. This went on for weeks till I just changed brokerages. I didn’t follow their advise but it did affect my aggressiveness and limited my return to only 200 bagger.
I would give this way less chance than 50-90%. Inventories ran down this quarter and production remained far under what the line is capable of. If there were plans to shut down S/X for more weeks (that'd be a minimum for a merged S/X line) then I would have expected the factory to prepare inventory to cover that sales period.
Yup, this is what I was thinking of.
Can anyone find a clip of this section on youtube or elsewhere?
At this point it might not make sense to refresh until Maxwell technology is ready 2020. I fear that Tesla has a plan to get by on 35GWh 2170 and 100k S/X until like 2020 and at some point there rapidly scale for Y, T, Semi, S/X etc using Maxwell inhouse.
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