Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Dan Detweiler]

If you took the time to read the original quote, the person was saying new ICE cars are losing a ton of resale value. Sorry for pointing out that, while I don’t care, Tesla has done the same to it’s early adopters. But you probably just like being a smart ass.

Easy champ. I'm just saying that you and every other car owner have total control of whether depreciation effects you or not. Don't like the current value of your car? Then just don't sell it (or find another buyer). Value reasonable to you? Sell it. It really is that simple. No need to get defensive.

Dan

p.s. Thanks for calling me a smart ass. I usually get labeled a dumb ass. Moving up in the world!

 

[jeewee3000]

To those looking to jump back in: don't catch this falling knife too soon.

Lower bollinger band on daily chart currently lies at 290,5x so that's the closest support level in my book.

287,xx is also support since that is 10% lower than yesterday's closing price and will trigger the short-stop.

 

[JRP3]

If you took the time to read the original quote, the person was saying new ICE cars are losing a ton of resale value. Sorry for pointing out that, while I don’t care, Tesla has done the same to it’s early adopters.

The normal progression of technology does that to early adopters of every technology.

 

[scaesare]

A few OT pedantic notes:

I believe Tesla pulled the plug on the SR and on the aggressive price reductions for the following reasons...

To "pull the plug" on something typically means to discontinue it.

To "pull the trigger" means to implement something.

These "gascars" used complex Ruby Goldberg machines

It was Rube Goldberg that was the comic illustrator that the goofy machinery is named after.​

 

[defc0n]

To those looking to jump back in: don't catch this falling knife too soon.

Lower bollinger band on daily chart currently lies at 290,5x so that's the closest support level in my book.

287,xx is also support since that is 10% lower than yesterday's closing price and will trigger the short-stop.

It’s either that or 250ish. Next news-worthy items are SEC nonsense and then model Y reveal I believe. Too much risk for me to own shares at this moment.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

It is pretty staggering to me stupidly the market is reacting. Its like instead of analysts there are just rows of chimpanzees screaming STORES CLOSE MUST BE BAD, PRICE LOW MEANS FAIL.
Tesla came from nowhere to prove to the world that electric cars can be sexy, They then proved electric cars can be sold, they then proved they can be sold at a profit. Now they are proving they can be in reach of almost everyone.
And still idiots keep thinking they will fail. Its laughable.
I suspect Q1 loss if it even happens, to be tiny, and Q2 profit to be very good indeed. A lot of idiot 'analysts' will be eating their words.

 

[Nocturnal]

I know it isn't rocket science but I called this drop perfectly. All we have heard for months is that Tesla is a failure because they can't release the 35k car so the stock should be shorted. Now that we have it...the stock should be shorted.

Also great work on CNBC stating that the 35k car means that Tesla will not longer be an exclusive brand. Uhh, you may want to tell BMW, Mercedes, and Land Rover that.

It is pretty staggering to me stupidly the market is reacting. Its like instead of analysts there are just rows of chimpanzees screaming STORES CLOSE MUST BE BAD, PRICE LOW MEANS FAIL.
Tesla came from nowhere to prove to the world that electric cars can be sexy, They then proved electric cars can be sold, they then proved they can be sold at a profit. Now they are proving they can be in reach of almost everyone.
And still idiots keep thinking they will fail. Its laughable.
I suspect Q1 loss if it even happens, to be tiny, and Q2 profit to be very good indeed. A lot of idiot 'analysts' will be eating their words.

Any analyst that believes brick and mortar stores are the future should be fired on the spot.

 

[scaesare]

Driving one's car onto the ice is not uncommon...

Latest information indicates the rock/ ice chunk of doom was on land.

OT, but I'd really like to understand the failure mode here.

The titanium shielding that was added to the S's, and ostensibly present also on the X (or something equivalent), was designed to protect the front forward surface of the pack... the face of the "double stack" where there is only thin pack casing material. This was as a result of the initial Model S fire wherein a tow-hitch piked upwards in the frunk area and pierced that forward section of the pack.

The bottom of the pack is ballistic armor shielding. I've never heard of this being pierced by running over an object.

Almost all of the fires have been from collisions violent enough to catastrophically compromise the structural integrity of the pack... typically deforming it edge-on (like running in to that tree at 90mph a few days ago).

While it's hard to tell with that X being burned to practically nothing, I'd be interested in knowing if that rock was tall enough that it tore through the front undercarriage of the car and impacted the front of the pack head-on, or if it managed to comprise the bottom of the pack...

 

[Buddyroe]

2 problems with your argument:

1. guidance was NOT 350k-500k total cars, it was 350k-500k model 3 PLUS 70k-100k model S/X, so total range 420k-600k

2. he did not say "will build 500k", but "will build around 500k"

Now, if you consider these facts, then you can see that his statement of around 500k is perfectly in line with the 420k-600k range

Can you point me to a url that shows he clearly said 350k-500k Model 3 PLUS 70k-100k Model S/X? If so, I will gladly admit I was totally wrong and stand corrected. And I'm not being argumentative, but I can't find that info - unfortunately, if you do a google search with Musk in it these days, all you get is crap about the SEC and the tweet.

And also, he said "make" in his tweet - that is not run rate. I would say "around" would mean to most people, between 460k and 540k. So, he would have given guidance of the numbers you quoted for producing - NOT a run rate at the end of the year.

 

[tivoboy]

There is a lot of data and narrative for the shorts to leverage here.. so get ready for the story and notices to turn negative. You can decide what that will do to the stock price.

 

[S3XY]

I once took my car to the Springfield NJ SC as well. That one goes out a few hours from your place but avoids the border of course. Hopefully the mobile TSLA techs come out to see you. Maybe they'll bring you a Powerwall at the same time from Gig2.

If by a "few hours" you mean 6 one way! Actually, I already had a visit from the mobile tech for the aforementioned subwoofer issue. At the time he was the only one in NYS. He told me they were adding two more which I'm sure was needed. He also said he was able to arrange for some storage space at GF2 for some common parts he needed. As to the Powerwall, I was wishing I had one a few days ago when I lost power for 20 hours due to a wind storm and have been looking into it, and solar panels, since then. I really am the customer that Tesla is hoping for.

 

[Remus]

It’s either that or 250ish. Next news-worthy items are SEC nonsense and then model Y reveal I believe. Too much risk for me to own shares at this moment.

that's the price when there were no profit and real danger of bankruptcy if no capital injection.

 

[Buddyroe]

Apples to oranges: first tweet said 500k total vehicles: S+X+3.

CC guidance said 350k-500k Model 3's only, and if we combine that with 70k-100k S+X we get a guided range of 420k-600k for total vehicles. (With some fuzz for deliveries vs. production)

The middle of that range is 510k, so Elon's first tweet was in fact a bit lower than the middle point of the Cc-call guided range.

Please see reply I just made. Same question/comment.

 

[KSilver2000]

I want to be optimistic, but this is actual historic footage of past $TSLA rocket launch events:

Glad I booked some profits yesterday. Besides the going private instance, It’s hard to remember when the last time an Elon announcement resulted in an increase of the SP.

 

[Fobble]

Any analyst that believes brick and mortar stores are the future should be fired on the spot.

That was Bob Lutz, except he ain't analyst, and he does not have a job (does he?). So, nothing to fire

 

[Unknown_Wizard]

Maybe some angry sales guys throw away their shares...

 

[KarenRei]

After the SEC announcement, I sold a few shares at open with intent to buy during a MMD which never came.

Looks like today will be that day.

 

[Singuy]

You know if after 3 years Elon can somehow sell the model 3 for 20k and still maintain the margins then heA should.

Shareholders seem to forget the mission statement because it conflicts with profitability.

This is one area TSLA is Not apple. It's probably part of the reason why it doesn't get the love apple gets. Apple is all about high margins. Tesla is all about transitioning people into electric which inheritantly mean razor thin margins.

But this is a way of attacking the market in a different way. Can't underestimate the power of dominance. Walmart sell goods at razor thin margins and bankrupted a lot of their competition. TSLA if they can get their production inline can do similar things.

 

[tinm]

"Service centers" were centralized places of worship, which were targets of so-called "gascar owner" pilgrimage every couple of months. These "gascars" used complex Ruby Goldberg machines consisting of thousands of moving parts (!!) - unlike anything you can see today, and these so-called "engines" were frequent targets of prayers, to keep them working, especially near the end of their very short life time. According to archeological records these "service centers" were shrouded by a cloud of burning hydrocarbon incense smoke, which had an intense smell and which probably had deep religious meaning to humans of the Modern Neolithic, which were not space-faring societies yet.

Kids today know nothing.

As the Mobile Service Technician put on his vestments while standing next to the customer’s car in the driveway, the customer asked the Technician if he was able to perform the sacrament of Alignment on the car’s wheels and he said, nay, that requires a service center. Alas, the land in which this customer dwells hath enacted laws banning such facilities, and upon the customer’s and Technician’s mutual realization of this fact, the Technician returned to his vehicle and with regret, left. And it came to pass, as his Mobile Service Tech vehicle disappeared from view, the customer began to contemplate the long overnight journey to a faraway place where fairer laws permit such facilities to exist.

 

[Garlands]

Tesla will make an announcement on monday that they received 100k orders over the weekend and then shorts burned.