You were comparing EVs to ICE cars on the topic of million mile batteries.
I was comparing the useful lifespan of a vehicle versus the amount of miles on average people put on a vehicle before selling it.
The type of powertrain isn't relevant there- I've seen no evidence people keep either type anywhere NEAR the average lifespan of the powertrain (or even half that lifespan).
You're starting to sound like Gordon Johnson now insisting we can ONLY ever compared Tesla to another EV.
Nobody needs an EV either. Your point?
...what? I was pointing out the existing battery already has a lifespan more than 4, nearly 5, times longer than the average new car buyer owns a car.
This isn't a "well, I don't NEED another taco" this is literally "giving them a taco they'll never eat"
They aren't going to use the lifepan from 100k-200k on average (and the second owner isn't gonna use the 250-450k range either). So adding EVEN MOAR lifespan doesn't appear to help anybody in the first couple decades the thing exists.
This idea of need is based on your own subjective idea of what people need.
No, it's based on facts about the amount of miles people drive in a year on average.
Facts! try them sometime!
Unless it's not. You're applying your own peculiar values to everyone.
Again, not person values- facts and math.
You seem opposed to them for some reason.
To anybody.
Something like 99% of all vehicles go to a junkyard
well before 450,000 miles.
So they're already junk in
less than the life of the current battery
The original owner, on average, dumped the car before it even got to 1/4 of the life of the
current battery.
So you continue to fail to make a case for any value add, outside of an advertising slogan for a company that doesn't advertise, in going from 450k life to 1000k life.
Which is probably why Tesla
ignored the existing million mile battery from CATL.
Since "million mile" doesn't add value.
Cheaper to make, and faster/easier to make, do.
Which are the 2 major things I expect from what they show on BD.
If it's also rated for more cycles- cool. But nobody really cares about JUST that.
If they did CATL would have customers for thiers.
Nearly all vehicles last longer than their owners drive them, and their second or third owners might drive them, but it's still important in marketing for the first buyer. It's important for competition
Then why did nobody want CATLs "million mile" batteries?
HINT: It's because JUST being able to say million mile isn't important to any of the things you think it is.
, just as it's important to know that the Model 3 is the safest car ever tested by the NHTSA. It doesn't mean we *need* that
Now who is applying their own peculiar values?
"Safest car" is a
massive immediate value add to a vehicle you're gonna drive for years.
"Will still have a good battery 20 years after it's been resold multiple times since your original purchase" not so much in comparison.
The fact that the tech exists is itself of value.
Obviously not- since nobody was interested in buying the existing one announced a while back.
It's only when there's OTHER benefits (again- specifically, that it's CHEAPER and/or FASTER/EASIER TO MAKE IN VOLUME) that anyone cares.
Tesla sales aren't being held back,
at all by the fact their batteries are "only" rated for 450,000 miles.
They
are being held back by:
1) Inability to produce enough batteries to meet demand
and
2) Inability to lower costs enough to make them more affordable.
Million mile fixes neither.
Of course they do. They just work nearer work than you personally.
You seem to have a LOT of trouble undertsanding your PERSONAL situation it not typical nationally.
This doesn't sound remotely accurate
And yet- it is accurate.
I provided you sources for actual studies with actual data proving it.
The fact YOU PERSONALLY live and work someplace with a long commute is irrelevant to the facts of national averages.
though I understand some jobs allow people to stay close to home. Many people have a commute
Yes they do.
Though on average it's significantly shorter than
your personal one as shown by the sourced data you've been provided.
If you refuse to accept sourced facts I don't see much point in continuing the discussion.
Even if if we grant your figure, it makes zero sense considering the ranges that EV companies are after. Why do we need more range than 322 miles in a Model 3 LR AWD?
Because occasionally people like to drive somewhere on vacation. And don't always want to own a second car (or rent one) to be able to.
But yes, on a practical level, APART from road trips, 322 miles is
way way more than enough for daily driving use.
Another way we know that?
Nissan sold a ton of Leafs when they had MUCH MUCH LESS range than 322 miles.
Ditto VW and the e-golf.
(for that matter Tesla themselves sold plenty of older S, and newer 3/SR/SR+ with ranges in the low to mid 200s- plus all the other current EVs in that range like the Bolt, Niro, etc)
Because those ranges are
more than enough for the majority of daily driving in the US based on actual data from US drivers.
Not everybody of course- but the majority easily.
(Again MOST daily drives were TEN MILES OR LESS).
Why do smaller EVs with poor ranges do so poorly in sales
Dude.
Prior to this year the best selling EV
of all time (as in most total # sold worldwide) was....
The Nissan Leaf.
Which has had pretty crap range for most of its life.
(the Model 3 finally passed it in roughly February 2020).
,Why does range-anxiety exist?
Mostly?
Because humans are bad at facts and math, and REALLY bad at risk assessment.
They can easily talk themselves into insane hypothetical like "Well sure I only drive 30 miles a day on average.... BUT what if my spouse gets hit by a bus in a snowstorm after I've already driven those 30 miles, and there's no ambulances available, and they need an organ transplant in a hospital 200 miles away?!"
What about em? A 322 mile Tesla can make them easily thanks to superchargers.
Hell if you go find old posts on here, 220 mile range Teslas easily made them, before there were NEARLY as many superchargers too.
But again people like to make up crazy things in their heads- "WHAT IF I GET A JOB OFFER 1000 MILES AWAY AND HAVE TO START TOMORROW AND THERE ARE NO FLIGHTS?!"
, or making the car work harder (poor weather, towing, more mass in vehicle, faster driving)? How one drives makes a difference.
Sure. 322 miles might become 160 miles of range.
But then, again, the average daily drive is only 30 miles... and the MAJORITY of daily drives is only 10.
160 is
way more than enough
See again the tens of thousands of Nissan Leafs sold annually year after year after year. Mostly bought by people rational enough to realize they basically never drive 100 miles in a day, let alone 300.... and if an emergency DOES come up, rental cars and airplanes both exist....(or likely some owned an older ICE vehicle to cover those edge cases)
Again, I'm talking about pre-pandemic times.
Right- back when the average american drove 30 miles, with the majoriy driving less than 10, on a daily basis.
As proven to you with sourced data.
Now, of course, people drive even LESS.
One of the primary concerns of any EV owner is range. 322 miles seems like a lot until you take a long trip, or drive fast in a SoCal HOV lane for a long time
Speaking of moving goalposts
What does any of this have to do with a battery that lasts a million miles?
BTW you seem fixated on California.... so let's debunk your ideas about your own state real quick.
The Average Miles Driven per Year in the United States
14,435.
That's the average # of miles per year driven by someone in CA.
Which is... ~39.3 miles per day.
That IS a bit higher than the national average of 30.
But not much.
And it means over the ~6.6 years on average a new car owner keeps the car, you'd drive... 95,271 miles.
So 450,000 seems plenty, and 1 million pretty irrelevant.
You're falling in to a false-weighting statistical fallacy here
Just the opposite. I even explained to you how we get an average of 30 miles daily driven while we
also know the
majority drive 10 or less.
It's because outliers well above average such as yourself shift the mean toward 30, while the MEDIAN remains 10 because the MAJORITY of drives are around 10.
I understand what you mean about anecdotes, but your stats are wrong
They really aren't.
because they're weighting *everyone* vs. the specific demo of potential EV owners or Tesla buyers/owners
There you go Gordon Johnsoning up the thread again.
everyone is a potential EV or Tesla owner.
That is
literally the mission of the company
To accelerate the transition of
everyone to sustainable things like EVs.
Thus looking at the average needs of
everyone not just "rich dudes in LA" is exactly the correct target.
Further, this assumes the person who moves close to a job keeps it as long as they want. People change jobs, but they don't always change homes (and sometimes they can't if they're locked in to a lease or are homeowners with families). So, they commute. My entire career is full of people with crazy commutes, and some commute 2 hours one way
Because California real estate pricing is batshit insane.
Guess what one reason Elon had no trouble finding engineers happy to move from CA to Texas is?
Your figures aren't fact.
They literally are though.
Your inability to accept facts, and instances we ignore facts and instead cherry pick "rich EV owners in CA" as the only relevant demographic notwithstanding.
We should conduct a poll here, asking people how long their commutes are since we have a great self-selected groups of Tesla enthusiasts.
Right. Cherry picking.
Especially dumb cherry picking too since Tesla is trying to get
non ev owners into EVs.
You contradicted yourself. Marketing has value because drawing people out of ICE and in to EVs is important now more than it will ever be in the future.
You're the only one contradicting yourself.
You just rambled on for 10 paragraphs about how ONLY EV OWNERS MATTER and we should ONLY POLL CURRENT TESLA OWNERS FOR DATA.
Now when it hurts your point you suddenly realize drawing in ICE owners matters.
You're talking about ICE cars again
And back to pushing the goalposts the other way I see...suddenly ONLY EVS MATTER again
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