Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[amolina]

I enjoy following TSLAQ because many of its members are professionals that have access to data that retail does not. Occasionally, they will post some of this data but interpret it incorrectly because they are not tuned into what Tesla is working on as the bulls are. Ironically, they often boost my confidence in my investment.

I can no longer find the Tweet (probably deleted because he probably realized it was bullish later on), but today TSLAQ member Keubiko posted a chart about battery shipments from Kinki region of Japan to the US. It showed that in September the shipments to the US dropped to zero, while shipments to China continued at the same pace. He asked the question “Is Tesla discontinuing S/X?”

I think this potentially means all of S/X are moving to the new roadrunner cells (or 2170, which I find unlikely). It also means production has likely already begun and Plaid S/X are imminent. I’ve heard some rumblings from the moderator of RealTesla before that Tesla was going to increase S/X production in the past. We could potentially see a large price drop in the price of the S/X while the Plaid will be the super high end product.

Hey this information is great. Who are the most influential twitter accounts for TESLAQ to follow? I would create a list and try to gather these insights as well. So cool that you pointed this out. We could leverage their data access and ignore their analysis. Super awesome

 

[chiller]

Nice, but, erm...

Max pain for expiry 2020-09-18 is $999

Seems my source data reverted to almost all 0's for the open interest.
I should have known better than to trust stuff from the internet!
I'm logging the data, so I should be able to mitigate this in the future when I understand what is happening.
I'm betting it will fix it self later today, but if it is true what vikings123 said, it will not be any change throughout the day.

EDIT: Actually, looks like the data reverted to some old (pre-split) data.

 

[wipster]

Up, down, up, down....maybe up...maybe down....but def up in the long run

 

[RobStark]

VW plans to sell 500,000 ID.4 electric cars per year - Electrek

"In the interview, Brandstätter said that VW plans to sell 1.5 million electric cars per year by 2025, and they aim for ID.4 to account for ~500,000 of those sales:

Volkswagen wants to become the world market leader in e-mobility — but that won’t happen by itself. The Volkswagen brand is therefore investing around 11 billion euros by 2024. As a compact SUV, the ID.4 has, in our view, the best prerequisites for being successful in a large scale in all important markets. We therefore expect the Volkswagen brand to produce a total of 1.5 million e-cars per year by 2025. And the ID.4 is likely to account for around a third of this. The ID.4 will thus become the driving force behind our reorientation a hundred thousand times over."

 

[StealthP3D]

Tesla Wins Case Against Former Employee Accused Of Hacking, Transferring Data

That's great! Maybe now that he's lost, he'll talk. It would be nice to know who was supposedly paying him the $50K and encouraging him to recruit other employees to lie about Tesla's operations for payment from the same party.

 

[FrankSG]

VW plans to sell 500,000 ID.4 electric cars per year - Electrek

"In the interview, Brandstätter said that VW plans to sell 1.5 million electric cars per year by 2025, and they aim for ID.4 to account for ~500,000 of those sales:

Volkswagen wants to become the world market leader in e-mobility — but that won’t happen by itself. The Volkswagen brand is therefore investing around 11 billion euros by 2024. As a compact SUV, the ID.4 has, in our view, the best prerequisites for being successful in a large scale in all important markets. We therefore expect the Volkswagen brand to produce a total of 1.5 million e-cars per year by 2025. And the ID.4 is likely to account for around a third of this. The ID.4 will thus become the driving force behind our reorientation a hundred thousand times over."

Good luck to VW. I hope they achieve it, but I'd bet against it given their disappointing e-tron, Taycan, and ID.3 track record of the past few years.

 

[replicant]

If Batter Day is that insane, either

• Teslais certain that current demand far exceed their production capacity
• or they will offer an option to upgrade battery packs for free (like HW3) or at a low price
• or they'll make leases the best option to gets Tesla.

They don't offer buyback options on leases anymore (to remonetize vehicles as robotaxis), so the could extend that program to discourage purchase and favor rental/on-demand. For that they'll need a lot of capital upfront. If their leasing partners are happy with the current situation and if analysts are now able to foresee the opportunity (see recent ~50% WallStreet upgrades) then it makes sense for Tesla to announce this battery roadmap to shareholders and analysts instead of the general public / press.

Iknow Musk prefers straightforward business models (see the turnaround for solar after the merger), but the FSD plans and the need to get the mining industry onboard force them to reveal their cards early and find ways to prevent large scale Osborning.

Unlessthey expect the non-batttery changes to be convincing enough for people to buy 3 and Y w/o the newest batteries, or Tesla will lower their price early before new batteries make their way (bearing the margin loss).

 

[JBRR]

*TESLA BATTERY USED FOR FIRST TIME TO BALANCE U.K. POWER GRID

 

[mrdoubleb]

Tesla Wins Case Against Former Employee Accused Of Hacking, Transferring Data

Help out a non-native speaker here if you could. The wording is a bit confusing to me - and I went to the original Reuters article as well but it reads the same.

So the report opens with: "U.S. electric carmaker Tesla Inc won its case against a former employee..." suggesting the entire case is over. Tripp may appeal I guess but for now Tesla has won, case closed.

But then it says: "The U.S. district court of Nevada said in its ruling that it will grant Tesla’s motions to seal" and that "The court also denied Tripp’s motion for leave to file an additional reply".

So my question is: does this mean the case is over, but the details, like of the reasoning of the verdict and other parts of the court documents are sealed because, one would assume, Tesla had to disclose trade secrets, actual data on production yields, technology etc. in order to protect itself? OR, does this mean Tesla only won the motion to continue in a sealed process and they have not ruled on the underlying case yet?

EDIT: I guess what I am missing is an "also" as in "The U.S. district court of Nevada also said in its ruling that it will grant Tesla’s motions to seal" to make it less ambiguous.

 

[MABMAB]

On TSLA trades, not for long term bulls, but for momo type players, I see lots of ego, confusion, rationalizing. In and out same day. Too much emotionalism for me, sitting on my hands, doing nothing. Will take what comes.

 

[LN1_Casey]

So my question is: does this mean the case is over, but the details, like of the reasoning of the verdict and other parts of the court documents are sealed because, one would assume, Tesla had to disclose trade secrets, actual data on production yields, technology etc. in order to protect itself? OR, does this mean Tesla only won the motion to continue in a sealed process and they have not ruled on the underlying case yet?

It is my understanding that it was the former; as in, the case--now closed, save for an appeal--is completed, and the records from that are sealed.

And yeah, an "also" would have been a good clarification in the article.

 

[Johann Koeber]

In July I bought some ARKK in my German brokerage account with CortalConsors.

Now I wanted to get some more shares of this ETF. My order was rejected. The explanation I got from the broker was that there is a trading embargo because of sanctions!?! I could sell my shares but it is impossible to buy additional shares.

Does anyone have information on this. Is there a way around it?

I will not do anything illegal or shady, but this is getting ridiculous.

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

Yet more BD speculation: Tesla Battery Investor Day

 

[H Mak]

Tesla Wins Case Against Former Employee Accused Of Hacking, Transferring Data

Great news. Isn't he that mad arse who's been all over Twiteer ranting against Elon Musk and Tesla? If so, he deserves all he gets.

 

[Runarbt]

Nice, but, erm...

Max pain for expiry 2020-09-18 is $999
Max pain for expiry 2020-09-25 is $999
Max pain for expiry 2020-10-02 is $999
Max pain for expiry 2020-10-02 is $999
Max pain for expiry 2020-10-16 is $999
Max pain for expiry 2020-10-23 is $1
Max pain for expiry 2020-10-30 is $1
Max pain for expiry 2020-11-20 is $999
Max pain for expiry 2020-12-18 is $999
Max pain for expiry 2021-01-15 is $999
Max pain for expiry 2021-02-19 is $999
Max pain for expiry 2021-03-19 is $915
Max pain for expiry 2021-06-18 is $900
Max pain for expiry 2021-07-16 is $999
Max pain for expiry 2021-09-17 is $999
Max pain for expiry 2022-01-21 is $750
Max pain for expiry 2022-03-18 is $999
Max pain for expiry 2022-06-17 is $810
Max pain for expiry 2022-09-16 is $999
updated: 2020-09-18 08:00:18.825098+02:00

It has been fixed! More in line with my expectations now.

 

[EV Promoter]

If nobody posted it already:

Exclusive: Tesla wants to cast the front frame part in one piece for German Model Y

Front-Rahmen aus einem Guss für deutsche Tesla Model Y > teslamag.de

Front frame of the Tesla Model Y as cast aluminum
But it's not that far yet. This was revealed last week by Evan Horetsky, who is responsible for the construction of the German Gigafactory at Tesla , during a tour of the construction site with journalists. When teslamag.de asked directly whether the frame for the German Model Y with the two four Giga presses would be cast from one piece, he answered in the negative. Tesla in Grünheide is still going one step further: The front part of the frame for the Model Y will also be made there using the casting process, said Horetsky.

This is new as a concrete confirmation, even if the Tesla expert and decomposer Sandy Munro had previously speculated about it . The Gigafactory boss did not go into any more detail, but explained that the front frame of the German Model Y will be cast in one piece as soon as the rear in Fremont. Apparently, one or a maximum of two of the giga presses are sufficient for this. When asked why eight of them are planned in Grünheide, Horetsky said that Tesla wanted to be able to cast a large number of parts there very quickly.

But it seems to me the photo belongs to the rear casting.

 

[Tslynk67]

That’s gross!

Eleventy-one plus thirty-three...

 

[Tslynk67]

Prove it. The history is available. I suppose it could just be people I have on ignore due to my perception that they generate little other than noise. Or maybe there are a bunch of different predictions and you just remember the ones that are right. People do predict all sorts of crap, then forget what they got wrong and remember what they got right. And, as has been pointed out many times, anybody who can actually predict prices at specific times can become rich really fast. And yet... nobody does.

Go ahead. Tomorrow you can predict the closing price at least a couple of hours before, preferably when it isn't actually near that price. Then load up on the best options you can find. Should be trivial to multiply your money by four or five. Post about it. Be a hero! I'll happily predict failure. Actually, I predict you won't do it because you don't actually believe.

HMB...

 

[avoigt]

VW plans to sell 500,000 ID.4 electric cars per year - Electrek

"In the interview, Brandstätter said that VW plans to sell 1.5 million electric cars per year by 2025, and they aim for ID.4 to account for ~500,000 of those sales:

Volkswagen wants to become the world market leader in e-mobility — but that won’t happen by itself. The Volkswagen brand is therefore investing around 11 billion euros by 2024. As a compact SUV, the ID.4 has, in our view, the best prerequisites for being successful in a large scale in all important markets. We therefore expect the Volkswagen brand to produce a total of 1.5 million e-cars per year by 2025. And the ID.4 is likely to account for around a third of this. The ID.4 will thus become the driving force behind our reorientation a hundred thousand times over."

The problem is the ID.3 disappoint in major German (Auto Motor Sport & Auto Bild) tests not only with quality and material e.g. cheap plastic but also with range, not to mention charging infrastructure and costs.

The ID.4 has the same technology and because of its form factor will not be better in range and efficiency but rather worse.

Brandstätter and VW invest a ton of marketing € to create the impression they ID.3 is a success and the ID.4 even before a first has been delivered but I believe it when I see it in independent tests.

Just a few months after the ID.4 is delivered the Model Y will be produced and delivered in Germany and that could make a lot of buyers decide to wait with their buy decision.

With whatever Tesla will announce next week at battery day the media will be dominated by the break-through technology which will make it for the ID.4 even harder.

As a German I want VW to succeed but instead of major technology improvements, all I head is a lot of claims and overpromise but underdeliver.

Its 6-12 months ago that VW stated that they will deliver all that a Tesla has for half the price. If we look at the facts today, a ID.3 is about 70 to +100% of a Tesla and has much less to offer.

 

[amolina]

It has been fixed! More in line with my expectations now.

Is this really pre split? Can you please change it post split? Also any comments on how does the forum uses it would be valuable?