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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Quadruple witching day tomorrow.
yes could those that can relate it to TSLA talk about it BEFORE it happens?

It has long been called Triple Witching Day, a major quarterly expiration of stock index futures, stock index options, and individual stock options. It occurs on the third Friday of the last month of a quarter. It's a clever reference to the witches of mythology and literature, which often came in threes, but never fours. Then some years ago an exchange came out with a new product, and asked the media to refer to Quadruple Witching Day. Blah! Blasphemy! Literary Ignorance!

That new product has essentially dwindled to almost nothing due to lack of demand. Of course there are actually thousands of financial instruments that expire on Triple Witching Day. Yet some in the media still start the term with Quadruple. I and those in the know will always call it Triple Witching Day, and hope that everyone else here will do the same.

Finally to lafrisbee's question. Generally, more TSLA options expire on a Triple Witching Day than on a typical Friday, including the monthly expirations on the third Fridays of other months. On a Friday, the big writers (mainly hedge funds and market makers) of options often try to nudge the TSLA share price toward a strike price in which options interest is high (MaxPain). This is done to preserve most of the option premiums they have received. It can shut out many of the retail buyers of options. There is a cost in manipulating the share price, although much of that can be undone on the following Monday. But the options cannot be undone, since they expire on Friday. The manipulators expect to make a profit, even if it is not huge.
 
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fwiw I made a max pain script that runs every hour. Will be interesting to see how it evolves tomorrow during the trading hours. The output can be seen here: http://home.pusen.org/stocks/maxpain

Keep in mind that Max pain is dependent on open interest. While volume is getting updated in real time the OI only gets updated once every day.

While the script is nice I don’t know how much information you can get from the hourly updates. Plus based on my experience max pain usually matters for monthly options not so much for the weekly options.
 
Fremont flyover as requested. Some notes:
  • LOTS of cleaning up going on, shuttles are picking up what looked like line workers at the Kato buildings - I sense that the line might be running..

Seems to confirm my earlier thinking on that... BD will include a demo/tour deal of the RR line actually functioning, and probably a Plaid S using cells made there.

Thanks for the video (and your vids are awesome BTW- what drone are you using?)


I agree and share your concerns Fobble. As good as I think the SP reaction will be during the presentation, which will AH, I too feel there may be a let down following. However, we do have the 3rd quarter deliveries and financials following. Anyone care to share they think we're going to do on both parts and the impact it may have on the SP?

I'll put it this way... I sold off my 9/25 calls on the pop over 450SP Wednesday morning because I expected BD to be a sell on news event anyway and figured I'd be safe on locking profits (so far this bet is looking good, but 8 days left to see how smart I was).

Next calls I own are for 10/16 because I expect the 10/2 release of Q3 deliveries to be excellent and start an SP rise that, potentially will go to sell-on-news for Q3 earnings like they did on Q2 deliveries and earnings so I'd wanna get out of them between those events.... got about a month to see if I was smart on those or not.

Those are all the bought call options I've got open right now that aren't LEAPs-and to be clear, the vast majority of my investments are in core shares I'm just holding on to and maybe (outside of periods with big unknowns like BD where yeah maybe they announce operational Mr Fusions or something) I just sell some deep OTM covered calls against... the buying call option stuff outside LEAPs is mostly using playing around money if I think they're on sale and I can get a decent deal for a date I think is worth it.
 
The tab less design can allow more thermal transfer directly to where the heat is actually generated (inside the cell). It's not about thermal contact with the outside of the cell as the heat is generated inside.

I am trying to understand the term 'tabless' and I am not able to wrap my head. All the descriptions say it will dissipate heat quicker because of the current rolled sheet .vs. the new design, but what is the new design and what is tabless about it?
 
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Wedbush raises their price target from $380 to $475. Dan Ives is forecasting 130K deliveries for Q3 and 470k for FY20.

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...the witches of mythology and literature...often came in threes but never fours. Then some years ago an exchange came out with a new product, and asked the media to refer to Quadruple Witching Day. Blah! Blasphemy! Literary Ignorance!...

One Witch to Rule them all
One Witch to Guide them...
 
Wow, very good documentary on the rise of Netflix(ironically streaming on Amazon Prime). I didn't know that blockbuster was on the brinks of taking Netflix out with BB Total Access. It was a time when Blockbuster cannibalized itself to get to that point until a change in leadership decided to "make our stores great again" vs finishing the job by going digital.

The story parallels so well with what we are seeing today except no legacy car maker are willing to cannibalize itself to ensure their survival into the EV transition.
 
I enjoy following TSLAQ because many of its members are professionals that have access to data that retail does not. Occasionally, they will post some of this data but interpret it incorrectly because they are not tuned into what Tesla is working on as the bulls are. Ironically, they often boost my confidence in my investment.

I can no longer find the Tweet (probably deleted because he probably realized it was bullish later on), but today TSLAQ member Keubiko posted a chart about battery shipments from Kinki region of Japan to the US. It showed that in September the shipments to the US dropped to zero, while shipments to China continued at the same pace. He asked the question “Is Tesla discontinuing S/X?”

I think this potentially means all of S/X are moving to the new roadrunner cells (or 2170, which I find unlikely). It also means production has likely already begun and Plaid S/X are imminent. I’ve heard some rumblings from the moderator of RealTesla before that Tesla was going to increase S/X production in the past. We could potentially see a large price drop in the price of the S/X while the Plaid will be the super high end product.
 
I enjoy following TSLAQ because many of its members are professionals that have access to data that retail does not. Occasionally, they will post some of this data but interpret it incorrectly because they are not tuned into what Tesla is working on as the bulls are. Ironically, they often boost my confidence in my investment.

I can no longer find the Tweet (probably deleted because he probably realized it was bullish later on), but today TSLAQ member Keubiko posted a chart about battery shipments from Kinki region of Japan to the US. It showed that in September the shipments to the US dropped to zero, while shipments to China continued at the same pace. He asked the question “Is Tesla discontinuing S/X?”

I think this potentially means all of S/X are moving to the new roadrunner cells (or 2170, which I find unlikely). It also means production has likely already begun and Plaid S/X are imminent. I’ve heard some rumblings from the moderator of RealTesla before that Tesla was going to increase S/X production in the past. We could potentially see a large price drop in the price of the S/X while the Plaid will be the super high end product.

I am hoping there's a refresh of some sort, interior or exterior plus increase in range to 500 miles and keep the price the same, if not slightly higher. There are plenty of people willing to go for a roadrunner S/X as Tesla made lots and lots of people rich lately. I am actually expecting order rates for S/X to tick up for q3 due to TSLA giving people free cash.
 
Look, I don’t know if Elon reads this thread, but if TSLA pops big on Tuesday, I’m going to preorder a Roadster. If it’s going to be big, just give me a sign Elon! Post a video, and wink once for yes, and twice for no on your Twitter.
Which part of "It even blows my mind" leaves you unsure?