Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Green Pete]

Link to that tweet? I'm not liking that at all for security reasons.

1. I am sure they have thought about security
2. Is the concern the driver seeing something? I think if they need to keep something under wraps they know how. But considering autopilot should be pretty darn good by the time that factory opens, my guess is if it was really a concern then the trucks would enter the facility autonomously.

 

[Jack6591]

As written, it specifically allows Tesla to do what was agreed to in the settlement. However, it blocks any other new EV manufacturers from doing so (technically, if they became subsidiaries of Tesla, they could grandfather in). If they get in before the bill passes, it looks like would also be ok.

Sub section from http://www.legislature.mi.gov/documents/2019-2020/billintroduced/House/htm/2020-HIB-6233.htm

addendum:
That section of the article references the existing act which was not made specifically against Tesla (historically, it was to protect dealers from OEMs). The 2014 wording change was done to exclude Tesla though.

It’s call the “Motor Vehicle Franchise Act.”


Electric vehicles use “motors.

ICE vehicles use “engines.”

I know that I’m being anal retentive; but when writing a new law — isn’t that precisely when one should stick to the letter of of law.

I don’t mean to imply that the law is stupid — okay, you caught me — I do mean it, the law is stupid.

 

[Artful Dodger]

JFC

Michigan's New House Bill 6233 Wants To Ban EV Automakers From Doing Business

Michigan politicians are trying to block new electric vehicle manufacturers from doing business in the state. Although carefully worded to include any type of auto manufacturing company, the Michigan “Motor Vehicle Franchise Act” was created specifically to block Tesla from doing business there, an obvious favor to the dealerships. The law already includes certain restrictions on auto manufacturers, restrictions that limit their ability to sell and service their vehicles in the state

Indiana Legislature: "Hold my beer pi"

Indiana Pi Bill - Wikipedia

Cheers!

 

[Robocop]

Id be far more excited for a "Model 2"/compact reveal

That will be a tricky one. Not sure how they avoid the Osborne effect there. Announcing a possible $25,000 vehicle surely impact the sales of the 3 (for those that simply want the current most affordable Tesla). Perhaps they can make it different enough that the 3 appears to be a great value by comparison, who knows. I also get the vibe they may introduce the Model '2' in China or Europe (or both), long before US gets that model.

 

[JRP3]

New I think this video makes a very compelling case for a completely re-designed modern S and possibly X.

I disagree with his line of reasoning. A more energy dense, power dense and efficient cell would not require a compete vehicle redesign to be implemented. I also think he's wrong about the casting machines, which he calls a "press".

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Sorry for linking electrek, but record deliveries “possible”? I thought this was in the bag, unless Elon is underselling.

Tesla (TSLA): Elon Musk says 'record deliveries possible' in leaked employee email - Electrek

 

[JRP3]

Id be far more excited for a "Model 2"/compact reveal

Won't be happening at Battery Day.

 

[Green Pete]

And THAT, gentlemen (and ladies of course) is why we support this company.

View attachment 590361

Who else does this...? This is a very welcome service even though they indicated earlier that I would have to collect in Fremont. My only concern is it's a little harder emotionally to refuse delivery, but I'm hoping for a neat car.

And with that, I've got a VIN, so time to see what Tesla can offer insurance-wise:

Liability - bodily $100/300k
Liability - property damage: $100k
Uninsured bodily injury: decline
Uninsured property: decline (max is $3500 anyways)
Medical payment: decline
Collision deductible: $5000
Comprehensive deductible: $1000
Rental reimbursement: in-network (whatever it means, cannot decline coverage)
Roadside assistance: basic (cannot opt-out).

I'm 37, wife is 27, car parked on street in san jose. 15k miles indicated. $60k insured value.

$94.20 per month.

Paid and signed. I'm a happy camper.

And a little extra info:

View attachment 590367

I forgot to mention this before. My insurance rate dropped ~30% this renewal period as well, unsolicited. Tesla insurance must be doing well

 

[DrL90]

1. I am sure they have thought about security
2. Is the concern the driver seeing something? I think if they need to keep something under wraps they know how. But considering autopilot should be pretty darn good by the time that factory opens, my guess is if it was really a concern then the trucks would enter the facility autonomously.

i dont think he meant the trucks would be driving around in the factory. Rather the pathways between the buildings will be covered as if they were part of the factory.

 

[powertoold]

Sorry for linking electrek, but record deliveries “possible”? I thought this was in the bag, unless Elon is underselling.

Tesla (TSLA): Elon Musk says 'record deliveries possible' in leaked employee email - Electrek

Maybe he means for Fremont only

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Sorry for linking electrek, but record deliveries “possible”? I thought this was in the bag, unless Elon is underselling.

Tesla (TSLA): Elon Musk says 'record deliveries possible' in leaked employee email - Electrek

This makes no sense. If they barely beat the record there is no chance of 500k for the year which it wasn't long since they said they thought they would achive.

 

[phantasms]

Fake “leak” to attempt to bring the stock down tomorrow? lol

 

[Prunesquallor]

I forgot to mention this before. My insurance rate dropped ~30% this renewal period as well, unsolicited. Tesla insurance must be doing well

A lot of insurance companies (including mine) dropped rates last period because of less driving due to COVID.

 

[wipster]

Sorry for linking electrek, but record deliveries “possible”? I thought this was in the bag, unless Elon is underselling.

Tesla (TSLA): Elon Musk says 'record deliveries possible' in leaked employee email - Electrek

I'm wondering if the record deliveries to which Elon is referring is only vehicles built at Fremont and doesn't include China. Also, will the Chinese holiday interface with their ability of deliver vehicles? That would suck...

 

[Robocop]

That will be a tricky one. Not sure how they avoid the Osborne effect there. Announcing a possible $25,000 vehicle surely impact the sales of the 3 (for those that simply want the current most affordable Tesla). Perhaps they can make it different enough that the 3 appears to be a great value by comparison, who knows. I also get the vibe they may introduce the Model '2' in China or Europe (or both), long before US gets that model.

Replying to myself, some ways Tesla could unveil a Model '2' (Compact hatchback) worldwide with minimal Osborne effect / cannibalization of other models:

1. Introduce premium versions first, so that a premium Model 2 surpasses the cost of a base Model 3.
2. Decrease cost of base Model 3 to more closely approach the Model 2 price range (possible as the cost-savings techniques used to develop the 2 can trickle into the 3).
3. Nerf the Model 2. Minimum necessary range, to be improved via OTA over the years (this is a little sketchy, but perhaps there's an ethical hardware way of doing this).
4. Introduce a few more premium features to base Model 3 (trim, audio, entertainment, etc.)

Just thinking out loud. I just know if a $25,000 Model 2 came out that was as good as a Model 3 (sans storage space) it would be very compelling for a large % of the population. Would put them in a position where they'd need to scale more rapidly than ever before. A 2-year announcement-to-production tease could be detrimental to the business, given that the Model 2 could be an order of magnitude more popular than the 3.

Agree with others, will not happen on Battery Day.

 

[Thekiwi]

IMO this is a misconception.

Average iPhone app revenue is about $10 a year per phone.
With 1 million Teslas, that's 10 million a year.
With 10 million Teslas, that's 100 million.

Obviously this is nothing. This is the reason Tesla is in no rush to make an app store.

For comparison there are something like 3-4 billion smartphones and only 1 million Teslas. Or 3500 times more phones than Tesla's.

The software profit is all about FSD and high value software like performance upgrades. Not selling apps/games.

Also, it is not easy to implement. Most likely requires a total rewrite of their OS and pushing complexity 3 orders of magnitude.

In summary... Tesla app store will not happen for quite some time, and revenue will be insignificant.

Apple currently generates $50 Billion annually in services revenue from ~1 Billion userbase, which is $50 per user per year, and this excludes the passthrough portion of app revenue (eg the 70% that goes to 3rd party developers for 3rd party apps is not included, only Apple's ~30% cut is) so the gross amount of revenue per user is actually much higher than $50.

So with a long term view a Tesla userbase of 50 million cars generating $50-$100 a year each on average in app revenue would be $2.5-$5 Billion revenue per year. If it is anywhere near Apples services gross margins (70%) that would translate to $1.75 - $3.5 Billion in Gross Profit for Tesla.

yes, a 50 million userbase of Teslas may take a while to build (we are talking ~10 years) so likely not a big earner in the short term, but something to think about long term even if it does pale in comparison to annual revenue/profits from upfront Auto & Energy sales.

 

[dl003]

Sandbagging?
Bear trapping?
Creating a sense of urgency to push everyone harder?
Any of these would be more likely than barely exceeding 112k.
Also, remember Elon said Q2 breakeven was super tight? Earning was over $100M. That was not super tight. I think this is all of the above all over again.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

I'm wondering if the record deliveries to which Elon is referring is only vehicles built at Fremont and doesn't include China. Also, will the Chinese holiday interface with their ability of deliver vehicles? That would suck...

China doesn't really seem to be up much so if Fremont isn't it seems like everyone is off on their estimates.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

China doesn't really seem to be up much so if Fremont isn't it seems like everyone is off on their estimates.

Huh? China already sold 22k units in Q3, they're likely to sell at least sell another 15k units in Sept, even if they're shut down for the last 10 days of the month. If Fremont achieves record deliveries of 115k, then that's over 150k units.

I don't know how any can be thinking that the email, if it's even real, is meant for anyone other than US employees. Maybe to Europe employees as well. We have enough data now to practically guarantee they will overall deliver over 120k which really makes it clear this email is talking about Fremont production vehicles

 

[Bet TSLA]

Meanwhile, futures are up modestly. So perhaps the TSLA run-up to battery day won't have to be fighting macros like it was on Friday.