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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Karen I get that. We don’t want to make a short sited decision. But that’s just the thing. There is no way Tesla is going to cover all these areas in the next 5 years let alone decade with the Supercharger network.

Half the Superchargers stations that have ever been built were built in the past two years alone. And this was including the fact that Tesla backed off a bit on the exponential growth curve in order to shore up the Model 3 ramp and because of the upcoming, more economically efficient V3 Superchargers.

Everyone in an area that doesn't have a Supercharger near there home pulls this "Oh, they're never going to build near me!" stuff, even if Tesla explicitly points out that they're going to. I remember people in west Texas going on and on about how Tesla will never build Superchargers for them, even while Tesla was actively building them. Funny that you never hear from those people anymore.
 
Agreed.

I think with the release of $35k model 3, its really sending a message to all legacy auto manufacturer:

1) We will show that a compelling EV can be profitably made at $35k price point.
2) Your massmarket EV offering will need to be a) cheaper with same appeal or b) better at the same price point. This will basically kill your ICE business, but we don't care.
3) Either you adapt, join us in pushing EV, or we will consume and kill your business.

Tesla is forcing legacy auto's hands.

A lot of the analysis are done on the assumption that Tesla wants to maximize profit.
With such assumption one would conclude that the only reason Tesla does a price cut is due to demand issue.

What if the decision of price cut was made to reflect the company's mission statement?
"accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy." i.e. priority #1 is to maximize rate of transition to sustainable energy, with the necessary condition that it doesn't kill the company in the process.
If they could still sell all they could produce at the old price point they would be advancing the mission faster than lowering prices now as they would have more funds to put back into R&D and CapEx.

Unless the osbourning effect of the lower price point vehicle is expected to be incredibly strong i can't think of a good reason to lower prices before they need to match demand to supply.
 
I think this approach makes a lot of sense. Owners know more than the salespeople anyways.

I don't think owner compensation is particularly important beyond some token recognition of the effort.

You could offer special badges to put on your Tesla.

Kind of like how Mercedes does for 100k miles, 250k, 500k and 1M miles reached on your odometer.

Badges signifying how many sales you have made and how much you personally have advanced the human transition to sustainable energy.

To paraphrase Napoleon again, a soldier will not risk his life for money but he will charge up a hill for a medal/ribbon. In other words Honor and respect of your fellows is more important than money.
 
I totally believe you, but in my experience, aside from the people that approach me when I park at a restaurant/mall, people are extremely misinformed. People still think Tesla’s can only go 100 miles, cost $100k, and they’ve never heard of autopilot.
Absolutely agree that there is a lot of education to be done, lots of misconceptions and misinformation--almost 100% of non-Tesla owners. (The few that have it mostly right usually have some other EV.) I was only referring to "not having heard of Tesla". There are vanishingly few of those.
 
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In the conference call he said a person ordering today should expect it by, not in, June. The website is the most accurate gauge we have right now. Hopefully they sold out Q1 and it gets updated tomorrow morning
Website wasn't very good in Q2/Q3 last year on estimating delivery timeframe. We don't even know if it is programmatic or a hard coded estimate.
 
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In the conference call he said a person ordering today should expect it by, not in, June. The website is the most accurate gauge we have right now. Hopefully they sold out Q1 and it gets updated tomorrow morning

Ehhh no. You're playing semantics on his wording but even with your interpretation of his wording......it still doesn't make sense unless they already had orders for March and April. Let's say 3 weeks to build and deliver(which is too long but just for the sake of your argument). If there wasn't enough orders for March in the US, Elon would have said "Order today and get you should expect your car by April" which is estimating 2 weeks worth of orders already on the books plus 3 weeks to make the car and deliver.
 
Half the Superchargers stations that have ever been built were built in the past two years alone. And this was including the fact that Tesla backed off a bit on the exponential growth curve in order to shore up the Model 3 ramp and because of the upcoming, more economically efficient V3 Superchargers.

Everyone in an area that doesn't have a Supercharger near there home pulls this "Oh, they're never going to build near me!" stuff, even if Tesla explicitly points out that they're going to. I remember people in west Texas going on and on about how Tesla will never build Superchargers for them, even while Tesla was actively building them. Funny that you never hear from those people anymore.

I just liked your post...just because I have hope. :)

Gitterdunelon
 
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I think there is potentially a growing mythology here that closing the stores equates to a cost savings of 6% of the price of these vehicles. That's not the direct trade-off. The quote is:

Shifting all sales online, combined with other ongoing cost efficiencies, will enable us to lower all vehicle prices by about 6% on average

The majority of the price cut is going to come straight out of unit profitability as Tesla makes a play for demand elasticity.
 
If they could still sell all they could produce at the old price point they would be advancing the mission faster than lowering prices now as they would have more funds to put back into R&D and CapEx.

Unless the osbourning effect of the lower price point vehicle is expected to be incredibly strong i can't think of a good reason to lower prices before they need to match demand to supply.
I think it's possible if Tesla/EM thinks that they cannot do this alone. The $35k model 3 would force the legacy auto to respond, which likely will have a bigger impact to rate of transition than for Tesla to maximize and reinvest profit in making more gigafactories.
 
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Think it’s time to start advertising the car. Average Joe has never even heard about Tesla. They don’t know about autopilot, or that Tesla has 300+ range. My brother and I are very into tech and never thought or knew much about Tesla. I even bought an i3 way before I sat inside of a Tesla... I was given the i3 as a loaner to my 4 series and bought it a week later. Before you all start bashing or taking offense, most of you have been following the company since 2013 and/or live in California where Tesla probably doesn’t need any advertising. The public needs to be educated. Only so many people follow Elon Musk on Twitter

Could not disagree with this more. I live in the PNW and there already Tesla's everywhere from Vancouver to Portland. I also have family in rural Arizona and South Caroline and there's at least 2 family members that know about Tesla's and actually want one. But in those regions of the country, a 50k Model 3 is not an option, not even a 40k Model 3. Literally they're all waiting on the 35k version.

Also just at my place of work, I know many that were specifically waiting for the 35k version

Elon has 25 million twitter followers....they've delivered way less than a million overall Tesla's and probably under 500k tesla owners(families that have more than 1 Tesla). Only a very very small fraction of his followers have bought an Tesla or EV yet. Advertising will be necessary......when Tesla is making 1.5-2 million vehicles a year.
 
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Interesting and encouraging. Why are German centers able to deliver that many cars while Tilburg, by all means the largest and best equipped one isn't able to sustain more than 40 on average?

Maybe because that's the average number of cars that gets assigned to The Netherlands? There are more orders from Norway and Germany, so a lot of cars get sent over there. And a lot of other European countries are waiting for their share too. By the way, I heard Tilburg delivered 120 Model 3 on Thursday.
 
I think there is potentially a growing mythology here that closing the stores equates to a cost savings of 6% of the price of these vehicles. That's not the direct trade-off. The quote is:

The majority of the price cut is going to come straight out of unit profitability as Tesla makes a play for demand elasticity.
LOL. You want to start your mythology - that 6% price cut is coming from reduced profitability.

ps : disagree by "mythology expert" AcesDealt.
 
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I'd prefer discussion of the numbers itself to continue in the appropriate thread. You'll see my answer there.Implications of what different cash balances would mean for the company go here.

Factchecking told you a few weeks ago that you are out of your depth in financial discussions. Reflexfunds now also made clear that you are making mistakes in your financial calculations. Why do you keep going down that path?
 
What did you expect an employee with a good chance of being laid off to say, ‘He loves me with all is heart and soul!’???

Context please when reporting what employees and ex-employees say. Because according to Elon’s many reported emails to employees, his actions over the years and several ex-employees who’ve had glowing things to say about Tesla and Elon, Elon cares about people, including the ones who work for him or have worked for him - everyone’s experience is very likely to differ based on a million different things.

Morale is not a static state, so don’t present it it that way or suggest it’s that way.

Morale certainly is not a static state, I do not believe I presented it as such. Tesla laid off a large number of people with a letter saying they were doing it so they would never have to do it again. Then much to the surprise of all of us here at TMC they did it again and again in fairly rapid succession. Yes clearly galleria staff are presently the most anxious for good reason.

When I was in freemont a month or so ago I had a great convo with a gentleman that works on the model 3 line. He said he felt badly for his friends that were laid off because they were all rockstars. But when he looked around he felt his entire team were rockstars, so it’s a tough call. He also admitted that he felt there were many redundant positions and a lot of bloat. He was very understanding, but still expresses reasonable concern about his job moving forward.

Telling your people you are laying some of them off isn’t a morale booster. Telling them you are doing so to ensure you will never have to do it again and then laying them off several more times is naturally going to make people uneasy. I’ve always respected your posts krugerrand, however, I don’t believe it’s a sin to say that today is a bit overcast when there are clouds in the sky.
 
Think it’s time to start advertising the car. Average Joe has never even heard about Tesla. They don’t know about autopilot, or that Tesla has 300+ range. My brother and I are very into tech and never thought or knew much about Tesla. I even bought an i3 way before I sat inside of a Tesla... I was given the i3 as a loaner to my 4 series and bought it a week later. Before you all start bashing or taking offense, most of you have been following the company since 2013 and/or live in California where Tesla probably doesn’t need any advertising. The public needs to be educated. Only so many people follow Elon Musk on Twitter

Given Elon's dislike of traditional advertising, I think it's unlikely Tesla will start conventional advertising while he is CEO.

I strongly agree with Elon's vision that the quality and price of a product should be able to sell itself without spending a fortune brainwashing people into buying it.

However unfortunately, public understanding of the tech, cost and safety advantages of EVs and Tesla vehicles is currently very poor and full of false misconceptions spread by fossil fuel/auto ICE/Tesla short propagandists. Public understanding of the 1 million people killed needlessly by ICE pollution every year is also very low, as well as knowledge of the $trns of annual damage they inflict from global warming.

I would like Tesla to spend on a marketing campaign to educate the public about EVs, their advantages and the urgency of the EV transition. It doesn't necessarily have to pitch Tesla vehicles in particular, it could simply show the top EVs currently available to buy. From there i'm pretty sure the Tesla's will sell themselves. If any other company is genuinely serious about the EV transition, then they could fund a joint campaign.
 
I think there is potentially a growing mythology here that closing the stores equates to a cost savings of 6% of the price of these vehicles. That's not the direct trade-off. The quote is:

The majority of the price cut is going to come straight out of unit profitability as Tesla makes a play for demand elasticity.

He stated in the reporter call:

"We're also also reducing the Model S and Model X prices and transitioning to online only. It effectively reduces our costs by about 5% maybe 6% and so we've applied that to S&X as well as to Model 3. So the S&X is also more affordable."

What, you think they just suddenly found a new 5-6% unit cost savings in the S and X lines after all this time?
 
Weekend contemplations -

Remembering that not only do I read every last post in this thread, and almost every one within the entire Investor Sector, I do try to limit my own contributions - other than the jocular ones - to original insights. Here are two: one of some significance; the second a bit more trivial.

The persistent upcropping of reports that some population of Tesla owners air grievances over price reductions or to a lesser extent feature additions - these understandably emanate from prior purchasers, with the temperature of such grievance a direct function of the recentness of that person's acquisition -
brings to me a realization of a moderate disadvantage that Tesla possesses with respect to traditional vehicle sales outlets. Here is why:

  • You give me date of your Tesla's purchase, what options you included, and your location and I can tell to the penny exactly what you paid. Full disclosure full stop.
  • NO OTHER VEHICLE shares this attribute. For the majority of the US (world....I do not know) car-buying public, the only way a customer thinks he or she has gotten a good deal is the extent to which the salesman has been convincing in saying so. Full non-disclosure full stop.
If I need to elaborate on this any, consider what would be the environment were Tesla to be as opaque in its pricing as every other automaker. You and I would know (1) the MSRP; (2) perhaps if you're savvy "Dealer's Invoice"; and (3) if you really know how to navigate the weeds and have done your homework, "Dealer's Holdback". With such knowledge, you would be demonstrating to yourself and the salesperson your ability to negotiate by comparing the above numbers with whatever it was you forked over at closing.

And that number is what you would use to compare whenever Tesla changed its so-called "price". Exactly the situation as with every other auto. What would not occur is that you and every other Tesla purchaser in month X would be saying {choose your invective} when in month X+1 Tesla announces a pricing change.

So. By being completely transparent, Tesla is uniquely compromised in a way all traditional dealers (and by reference, the auto manufacturer behind them) are not.

Show of hands for all who are happy Tesla does not use such a system. If I count those hands, I will know exactly how many have read this post.

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#2

There has been a small amount of consternation in posts within the past several days concerning upcoming layoffs amongst those employed in Tesla's salesforce. I do understand and have complete sympathy for each who receives a pink slip. HOWEVER, when I write "If not now, when?", I am 100% not referring to Tesla and its bottom line; rather, I am referring to the ex-employee **Again, this is for the North American market only**. The United States's and to a similar approximation Canada's economy has been at full employment levels for so long that it boggles this observer's mind. Anyone with a "Prior Employment: Tesla sales" line on his or her CV is so readily employable that another job is almost certain before a week is out. So: from an individual's viewpoint, it is unsettling but from a macroeconomic position, this is a great time to lose one's job!
 
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