Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Robocop]

New bull target $830 Gift Tesla Inc Stock | Real Ownership + Stock Certificate in our Paper Frame

 

[humbaba]

A marketwatch article that isn't just FUD? Oh, well, that's because its an opinion piece by someone who holds stock in $TSLA and feels it is (and should be) valued as a tech company.

Disappointed by Tesla’s Battery Day? The electric-car maker has been winning by playing the long game

 

[Intl Professor]

The Yoga Teacher Training Certificate hanging on my wall says we should all Breathe! and not worry so much about what degrees we have hanging on the wall. Namaste, y'all.

I used to hang my MIT and Ph.D diplomas opposite toilet and proper height until my Mom visited.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Here's how I'm thinking about it.

Tesla claims world needs 20 TWh annual capacity, 135 Reno GFs.

Under current tech, this would cost $2T. Thus, $100M per GWh annual capacity.

At 69% reduction from Tesla's announced improvements, this becomes $31M/GWh/yr.

So Tesla wants to build out 100GWh gmfor 2022. This could be just a $3.1B investment.

Terafactory Texas should be around $31B, so the first 100GWh is just 10% of nameplate. $5B cash should get this started.

Here's my simple model for Tesla's Battery Master Plan v.3

• The pilot plant is a proof-of-function prototype with a single line @ 10GWh/yr
  
• Tesla needs to build 9 additional Bty lines per year, each with 10GWh/yr capacity
• This gets us to 100GWh capacity in 2022, and ~3,000 by about 2029
• Note: if 3rd parties are unwilling/unable Tesla can build out 20 TWh/yr in 12 yrs

Now we get to the unstated consequence of Battery Day: Tesla MUST build a tertiary layer of production to build the machines that equip the Bty Cell factories.

Tesla MUST add 9 new such Bty lines (per chart above) to achieve the arithmetic growth required by their stated goals.

It might be practical to build a single such Meta-Factory, but given the scale required (potentially ~180 lines over 12 years), I think its more practical to build THREE such Meta-Factories (one each in China, Germany, and USA).

Each of these MTBTMs (Machines-that-build-the-Machine) would each have to be sized to produce 60 bty lines over 12 years, or about 5 each per year.

Think of these MTBTMs as Grohmann clones, but specialized for battery cells.

Does anybody know where (and from whom) Coca-cola Bottlers buy there production equipment? That's the scale of manufacturing we are discussing right now.

Cheers!

 

[Lycanthrope]

I tell you what, gang, that felt like a 10% up day to me. We we at $351, FFS, soon after open, I feared another shitshow.

OK, macro was OK, but not fantastic, and $TSLA was top of my watchlist most of that time and at the close.

Here's hoping the momentum has shifted once again.

 

[henchman24]

Generally Elon speaks about run rate for ramp ups. So my take is that around the end of next year Kato production will reach a 10 GWh/yr run rate. They wouldn't have produced a total of 10 GWh by then.

I worded poorly and that's what I meant. It would seem to me that the Kato Rd line is designed to build all the S/X needs with room to spare. Even as a pilot line, that is the first switch over of existing vehicles. Berlin/Austin for new.

 

[ninpb]

When's the P&D FOMO action happening? Got my stock price watching face ready.

 

[Curt Renz]

TSLA's 50-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) has been supportive for quite some time. Intra-day today TSLA slipped under. but closed nicely above. That's encouraging. The close is what's important in technical analysis; intraday and outside regular hours can be seen as just noise.

 

[BlackS]

Probably killing some time before his yacht gets cleaned up and only half of the girls showed up.

We all know who he really is....some guy that goes by the initials T.M.

 

[computerchuck]

I worded poorly and that's what I meant. It would seem to me that the Kato Rd line is designed to build all the S/X needs with room to spare. Even as a pilot line, that is the first switch over of existing vehicles. Berlin/Austin for new.

Highly unlikely for SEXY cars. It would most probably entail re-engineering of the middle chassis sections of these vehicles. Which would also mean weeks of re-tooling and no cars coming off the line.

Semi and CT are first candidates IMO.

 

[Singuy]

TSLA's 50-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) has been supportive for quite some time. Intra-day today TSLA slipped under. but closed nicely above. That's encouraging. The close is what's important in technical analysis; intraday and outside regular hours can be seen as just noise.

Yeah if macros hold I see Tesla going past 500 in the next few weeks. That battery day presentation was absolutely fire! I have never seen a road map that not only cement any kind of lead but presented the most cost effective and fastest money printer ever created. I used to put 1.5 Trillion dollar valuation at some what 30-50%, now it's like 99%.

 

[MountainRatMat]

Highly unlikely for SEXY cars. It would most probably entail re-engineering of the middle chassis sections of these vehicles. Which would also mean weeks of re-tooling and no cars coming off the line.

Semi and CT are first candidates IMO.

My understanding was that the German made Model Y was getting the improvements.

 

[computerchuck]

Tesla Stock Will Surge 27% to $500, According to This Analyst
Tesla Stock Will Surge 27% to $500, According to This Analyst | The Motley Fool

Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) new battery technology promises to accelerate the growth of the electric-vehicle market and widen its lead over its rivals.

So says Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner. On Wednesday, Rosner raised his rating from Tesla's shares from hold to buy and boosted his price forecast from $400 to $500. His new target represents potential gains for shareholders of roughly 27% from the stock's current price near $395.

 

[computerchuck]

My understanding was that the German made Model Y was getting the improvements.

Source?

 

[Krugerrand]

lol, Yeah? I don't think Goodwill even sells filing cabinets anymore.

Yeah. Come pick it up. You were wanting a road trip, right?

 

[MountainRatMat]

Source?

The slide from Battery Day that has the two cast front fenders, rear single piece casting, and structural battery in between.

Also, I'll have to look for where it was said (maybe at Elon's trip to Germany) but he said that the Model Y built in Germany will be very different from the Model Y built in Fremont.

Edit to add source:

The Tesla Model Y Made In Germany Will Be Quite Different

 

[mongo]

The slide from Battery Day that has the two cast front fenders, rear single piece casting, and structural battery in between.

Also, I'll have to look for where it was said (maybe at Elon's trip to Germany) but he said that the Model Y built in Germany will be very different from the Model Y built in Fremont.

Here you go:
"Berlin Model Y is the one to watch. That is a revolution in automotive body engineering (finally)."
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1281631025366355969

 

[Krugerrand]

First of all, it does not upset me. I don't care. I was curious as of the nature of this behavior.

Me thinks - In rare occasions this might bite your back somehow. If this is even a remote possibility, why expose yourself???

Yes, my mistake. You were amazed and then wondered why this public forum had to be exposed to it.

Meh, still to the amazement part. People like to talk about themselves and that sometimes includes money success.

This public forum is exposed because it’s public and people are social creatures and like to shoot the poo about everything.

 

[MountainRatMat]

Here you go:
"Berlin Model Y is the one to watch. That is a revolution in automotive body engineering (finally)."
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1281631025366355969

Thank you, that is a much better source than what I found.

 

[joh01652]

Wow, exactly the move I've been debating. And not like a used Y would be hard to sell when CyberTruck arrives on its own (but still well before all the other vehicles get the big batteries). My poor Murano, we bought it new in 2005. It's like putting a puppy down - sad. Then there's maintenance cost on an older vehicle which makes it a liability and risk should the Engine go.

SP matters too. See, I hit a magic number at least 3 or 4 times in a month, it's a joke around our house now. Today I'm in "the club", this morning I was not, but yesterday I was, lol. Maybe $500 and I'll get the Y to cleanse my soul, (like next week). It's a big part of it too, like having 1 foot in BEV with the other still in ICE.

Don't stress, just buy it. I did the same thing myself to my 2003 Volvo V70, you'll get over the loss quickly. The only regret you'll have is not doing it sooner. I'm very happy.