Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dakh]

Fair point, and I chewed on this for some time in recent past. So I really don't try to boast and, in fact, worked to take down 2 of my posts here that you can no longer find - even though it scored about 75 funnies bc of how that day played with my head. However, on flip side, this is energy building talk that amplifies my dreams and causes me to lean in harder, read more, and hold longer - as it might also with others reading it.
It's not like I inherited money or played the lottery here. This was calculated risk, that could have gone really wrong (did at one point a few years back), but paid off finally. And I believe when the stories here sound legit, other's are encouraged to take notice of TSLA. Not of "me" but of the number of people here getting wealthy because they stuck to their guns and pushed back on everyone who called them the fool in the neighborhood, and now somehow congratulating us. And the crazy thing is that it's all about to happen again IMO. You do not want to here what me ego really wants to say; the feeling is of multiple battles won, the war looking over soon, high freakin 5 TMC friends and Tesla!

Amen. The energy rubs off. Back when I started looking into this in 2014, I thought I'll just invest maybe low double digit percentage of my measly savings and hope for some big return. Then I ended up looking at what happened in this very thread in 2013 and seeing that some people both learned how to play this game and ended up with life changing amounts of wealth.. that got the wheels spinning. I came here with a pretty strong (and non-emotional) conviction that TSLA is going to be a killer investment, but I didn't have the confidence to go all in and make it work. And here I am 5 years later, basically with the same exact experience as some of the folks here had back in 2013. Without this board and people being fairly candid about what they're doing, how and why, I would not be where I am today. I don't care of course for the exact numbers, but enough clues to get the right idea is good enough. Super grateful to all the folks who shared their experiences, it is very helpful indeed.

 

[MC3OZ]

I still think it'll be a new vehicle as Elon (I think) has mentioned that even the Model 3 is bigger than the average sedan in Europe? That plus the range advantage of a smaller vehicle (drag is quadratic, yes?). So even a slightly thinner/shorter vehicle could get by on a lot less battery. PLUS the battery day slide showing the new vehicle labeled it as 'compact/robotaxi' which makes me think they might make some adjustments that make it even better as a robotaxi.

Edit: Could see Model 3 dropping below $35k though, to bridge the gap!

The first step may be to get the $35k Model 3 on menu possibly using CATL LFP packs.

 

[DragonWatch]

Suck it up. I've had to live with "average Joe" all my life!

Try living with "Brucei Goosey" in early childhood.

While enlisted, the NCOs claimed they were a PVT back when JC was a corporal.

I liked Bruce's Bastar. . .'s when referring to my second field artillery battery.

Later in my career, we did refer to enlisted soldiers as PVT "Joe" Jeep back in the day. There's that name again.

I might have preferred my parents call me Sue, from Jonny Cash's song. My life has been like a constant bar fight without having gone into the bar for a drink first. When I won, I won big though

No, just looking for a male term without getting into another bar fight

Speaking of good bar fights, TSLA did well today How about Joe Tesla? Someone suggested "Danny Downer," I kind of like that one. Danny ran against me, or I ran against him in high school for senior class president ~ I lost, just not popular enough FYI ~ my mom demanded a recount, but the ballots were already destroyed ~ Fall 1967 ~ omen of things to come I suspect.

Thanks, Bruce

 

[aronth5]

I've shared this 16 minute Battery Day video with my financial advisor and selected others who want to better understand Tesla and realize the vast majority of media coverage has their own agenda.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla claims world needs 20 TWh annual capacity, 135 Reno GFs.

Under current tech, this would cost $2T. Thus, $100M per GWh annual capacity.

Let's define "current tech" as the new Panasonic bty line going in at Giga Nevada right now.

Pansonic says it's a $100M investment and will add 3.5 GWh/yr capacity. That's roughly $28M per GWh annual capacity.

Is your estimate might be based on 2016 costs for GF1? But clearly there's some extrapolation errors when estimating $2T for 20 TWh.

Using that level of precision, you can only estimate to within roughly +/- $25B per GWh so it's insufficient precision for estimates at this scale.

Notheless, there's other infrastructure costs for new construction which Panasonic's $100M estimate does not include, but I'm not including them based on willingness of local Government's to fund basic infrastructure (this is the exact deal Tesla got in Shanghai: they get the building basically free, and they pay for all the factory tooling and equipment).

Additional economies of scale and impact of technology on the construction industry will make the 180th Bty Line much cheaper to build in 2042 than the 1st production line in 2021.

So initially, I think $240 annual Tesla's $240M CapEx will build:

• 1 pilot line @ 10GWh/ur in 2020/21 (12 mths ending 2021Q3)
  
• 1st Production line buildout starts 2021Q3; modular design completed
  
• 1st Production Facility adds ~1 module/mth; 9 lines complete by 2022Q4

That's about as far as $240 / yr Capex takes you. But once the production techniques are proven, it's time to ramp up CapEx as Tesla Grohmann begins building MTBTMs (machine that builds the machine) in 2023.

Cheers!

 

[Lessmog]

It's titanium, actually, and it's just at the front of the pack on the S because of space between the pack and the frame (I've installed one of these before, it's pretty cool).

That piece would not affect what was presented at Battery Day, but there was enough other changes and enough other superfluous connection items on the packs that in theory you could fit the new 4680 cells inside of an existing S. At the VERY worst the pack would be 1cm taller (or protrude lower), but there is plenty of room around the frame that surrounds the pack to allow for that.

No, the titanium shield was a later addition, put in front of the whole battery pack, meant to disassemble or push into the ground any foreign object. It was accompanied by a steel bar to first deflect stuff into less vulnerable zones. What I refer to is the bottom plate of the whole pack. Elon joked that the battery was covered by warranty "as long as it wasn't used for target practice".

But we agree there could be enough room for bigger cells.

 

[SOULPEDL]

New bull target $830 Gift Tesla Inc Stock | Real Ownership + Stock Certificate in our Paper Frame

Is that site for real? I wanted to gift shares and couldn't find how.

 

[Robocop]

Somebody posted a mention of two videos earlier today, that reaffirmed their bullishness following the battery day SP slump. I didn't watch the videos at the time, and now cannot find the post/recommendation. Can anybody find that / remember, or have any other post-battery summaries on YouTube you enjoyed?

 

[Robocop]

Is that site for real? I wanted to gift shares and couldn't find how.

It is real, but supposedly you can get paper certificates from your broker (for a fee), so I'm not sure paying 2x to those folks works for TSLA. I suspect it's more for like giving your kid a share of Disney, etc.

 

[jerry33]

Though, to what extent is that really true? When VW had unwanted ICE vehicle factories, they didn't "strand" them or write them off, but instead converted them to EV factories. )

I strongly doubt this will be economically viable--especially for those manufacturers who are going to see their sales plummet (in particular the ones that rely on pickups). 1) Look at the issues Tesla has had with Freemont because it wasn't designed for EVs. 2) There is almost nothing in common between EVs and ICE. Not the frame, not the drive train. I guess tires, wheels, and window glass, steering wheel, and a few buttons are about it.

 

[EVMeister]

Somebody posted a mention of two videos earlier today, that reaffirmed their bullishness following the battery day SP slump. I didn't watch the videos at the time, and now cannot find the post/recommendation. Can anybody find that / remember, or have any other post-battery summaries on YouTube you enjoyed?

I'm not sure if it was just 2 videos, but if my relatively young memory serves correctly it was a suggestion to watch recent content on YouTube by:

1) "Solving The Money Problem" (Steven Mark Ryan)
2) Dave Lee on Investing

Edit: Bingo - Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable.

 

[MC3OZ]

Let's define "current tech" as the new Panasonic bty line going in at Giga Nevada right now.

Pansonic says it's a $100M investment and will add 3.5 GWh/yr capacity. That's roughly $28M per GWh annual capacity.

Is your estimate might be based on 2016 costs for GF1? But clearly there's some extrapolation errors when estimating $2T for 20 TWh.

Using that level of precision, you can only estimate to within roughly +/- $25B per GWh so it's insufficient precision for estimates at this scale.

Notheless, there's other infrastructure costs for new construction which Panasonic's $100M estimate does not include, but I'm not including them based on willingness of local Government's to fund basic infrastructure (this is the exact deal Tesla got in Shanghai: they get the building basically free, and they pay for all the factory tooling and equipment).

Additional economies of scale and impact of technology on the construction industry will make the 180th Bty Line much cheaper to build in 2042 than the 1st production line in 2021.

So initially, I think $240 annual Tesla's $240M CapEx will build:

• 1 pilot line @ 10GWh/ur in 2020/21 (12 mths ending 2021Q3)
  
• 1st Production line buildout starts 2021Q3; modular design completed
  
• 1st Production Facility adds ~1 module/mth; 9 lines complete by 2022Q4

That's about as far as $240 / yr Capex takes you. But once the production techniques are proven, it's time to ramp up CapEx as Tesla Grohmann begins building MTBTMs (machine that builds the machine) in 2023.

Cheers!

Additional considerations..

• Scaling incrementally as needed in 10 GWh increments.
• Quick ROI with savings on cells, packs and cars..

So the initial funding is just needed to kick it off, afterwards it is largely self funding.

So the real question is, how quickly does a 10 GWh line recoup the initial investment?

After that phase it is helping to fund additional lines.

 

[ZeApelido]

Gavin Newsom is a joke.

https://twitter.com/TeslaChillMode/status/1309213695650668544

P.S. I have never trusted him.

 

[Robocop]

I guess tires, wheels, and window glass, steering wheel, and a few buttons are about it.

And ICE OEM's don't even make any of those because they're incompetent. All outsourced.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I think the CapEx needs to be higher than that because Tesla is vertically integrating much more of the process than Panasonic. Think mining and cathode/anode creation for starters. I'm pretty sure that Panasonic just buys the cathode/anode material already prepared.

Cost of Capital is <5%. Cost of Profits paid to 3rd Parties >10%.

Smart move is to integrate vertically.

Cheers!

 

[Robocop]

Gavin Newsom is a joke.

https://twitter.com/TeslaChillMode/status/1309213695650668544

P.S. I have never trusted him.

Wow that's not fair of you. He's right, Ford is absolutely leading the world. (In making EVs that nobody on earth wants)

 

[humbaba]

I've shared this 16 minute Battery Day video with my financial advisor and selected others who want to better understand Tesla and realize the vast majority of media coverage has their own agenda.

Watching the super cut I caught the $1.20/kWh anode cost they cite. When I watched it the first time I wasn't thinking, but that is a raw dollar figure whose improvement is given as 5% cost reduction at the pack level. They list some alternative methods, the cheapest of which costs $6.60/kWh, and say that their current batteries are better than that, but not as good as the $1.20/kWh.

So: $6.60/kWh > current cost > $1.20/kWh
And: current cost - $1.20/kWh = 5% of current battery pack cost

This implies that their current pack-level cost is less than $108/kWh. How much less? That really depends on what their current cost for anodes are. However, GM's bragging about achieving <$100/kWh pack-level cost doesn't seem competitive with Tesla's current production. (And that is assuming that GM will achieve those costs. As far as I know they don't have a production facility yet to measure how well the practice matches the theory.)

Since Tesla doesn't give dollar costs for the battery production any longer I thought this was an interesting nugget.

 

[jerry33]

Yes, legacy auto has the land and buildings.

That's only a maybe. Most likely they have sold the land and buildings and are leasing it back--at least that's what most companies do today. There may even be clauses in the lease indicating what they can do with it (not likely but possible).

 

[smorgasbord]

There’s no rule you have to withdraw 4% each year either.

Once again, the rule is NOT withdrawing 4% per year, it's withdrawing 4% the FIRST YEAR and then adjusting the DOLLAR AMOUNT each subsequent year by inflation.

 

[DragonWatch]

Observation ~ parallel story.

Like a SpaceX rocket. Old technology has booster and first stage get us off the ground, second stage the sustainer and then get on and off the moon. Cheesy, but good. New technology reuses booster. Now we can talk about going to Mars.

Batteries, especially back in the day did not last long, but made the flashlight and original cell phone; oops the original wooden wall phone work. Then there was a way to make batteries work with longer life, maybe a year.

Then the Leaf car came into being ~ squeezed the life out of the battery hoping to sustain 100 miles. When we took the quiz as a potential owner ~ it said the range began degrading within a short period of time. I do not remember from back to when they were first introduced. We opted out, got our deposit back and moved on. I commuted 65 miles one way and the campus did not have chargers.

Then Tesla came on the scene and become more than just a glorified gulf cart. Leaf was a real contender, just not battery technology.

EVs are making superior strides (just ask Lutz), but no one appears to be changing how technology can evolve to make things better, from the ground to the touch screen. Back in 1982, as i recall, the army contract for the new rocket launcher was between 100% fossil fuel and a hybrid fossil fuel & 24 car batteries to run the rocket system. 100% fossil fuel won for no other reason than charging was a major issue and battery ability to withstand rough treatment. NiCad tended to set new lower levels of charging and that was a NO-G0 but was the standard with the Lance missile program.

What we were permitted to see on the 22d was what a virtual book looked like for the very first time. Yes, I am sure more miles can be squeezed out of older technology, but this new Tesla technology has left the station. Go back and look at the chart where the white solid line stops and the future is a dotted white line ~ then look where the solid red line begins. That is where the bus left the terminal. If you look at the start of the red line ~ we are there and present. The full package package goal is 2023 (?), for full on production.

I must apologize, my poor mind wonders all over the place ~ as I was growing up there were no pastures with fences so I could wonder hither and yon. So, I hope this makes sense to someone.