Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MountainRatMat]

Source?

The slide from Battery Day that has the two cast front fenders, rear single piece casting, and structural battery in between.

Also, I'll have to look for where it was said (maybe at Elon's trip to Germany) but he said that the Model Y built in Germany will be very different from the Model Y built in Fremont.

Edit to add source:

The Tesla Model Y Made In Germany Will Be Quite Different

 

[mongo]

The slide from Battery Day that has the two cast front fenders, rear single piece casting, and structural battery in between.

Also, I'll have to look for where it was said (maybe at Elon's trip to Germany) but he said that the Model Y built in Germany will be very different from the Model Y built in Fremont.

Here you go:
"Berlin Model Y is the one to watch. That is a revolution in automotive body engineering (finally)."
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1281631025366355969

 

[Krugerrand]

First of all, it does not upset me. I don't care. I was curious as of the nature of this behavior.

Me thinks - In rare occasions this might bite your back somehow. If this is even a remote possibility, why expose yourself???

Yes, my mistake. You were amazed and then wondered why this public forum had to be exposed to it.

Meh, still to the amazement part. People like to talk about themselves and that sometimes includes money success.

This public forum is exposed because it’s public and people are social creatures and like to shoot the poo about everything.

 

[MountainRatMat]

Here you go:
"Berlin Model Y is the one to watch. That is a revolution in automotive body engineering (finally)."
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1281631025366355969

Thank you, that is a much better source than what I found.

 

[joh01652]

Wow, exactly the move I've been debating. And not like a used Y would be hard to sell when CyberTruck arrives on its own (but still well before all the other vehicles get the big batteries). My poor Murano, we bought it new in 2005. It's like putting a puppy down - sad. Then there's maintenance cost on an older vehicle which makes it a liability and risk should the Engine go.

SP matters too. See, I hit a magic number at least 3 or 4 times in a month, it's a joke around our house now. Today I'm in "the club", this morning I was not, but yesterday I was, lol. Maybe $500 and I'll get the Y to cleanse my soul, (like next week). It's a big part of it too, like having 1 foot in BEV with the other still in ICE.

Don't stress, just buy it. I did the same thing myself to my 2003 Volvo V70, you'll get over the loss quickly. The only regret you'll have is not doing it sooner. I'm very happy.

 

[Lessmog]

So, according to some EVTV documentation, a Model S battery module is 3.5 inches (89mm) tall after it is removed from the case, but I can't find any info on the inside height of the case. But that means it is at least possible to fit an 80mm battery inside the existing space, although that doesn't leave much room for the connections and other stuff.

Being far behind as always, pardon me if this has been addressed before:
ISTR from the days of a few high speed highway debris incidents that the bottom of Model S battery is protected by about 6 mm / 1/4 inch hardened Al. Together with other internal module structures, now unneeded, that may yield enough additional space for the new, taller battery cell? Especially if the connections are also simplified. But what do I know, eh.

 

[mongo]

Thank you, that is a much better source than what I found.

Perusing that thread, Elon gives the side eyes emoji to:
"Full body casting?"
and
"Are you sticking to modules or going straight from cell to pack?"

He responds to : "Single or two piece frame cast?"
with: "Even more"

 

[MountainRatMat]

Perusing that thread, Elon gives the side eyes emoji to:
"Full body casting?"
and
"Are you sticking to modules or going straight from cell to pack?"

He responds to : "Single or two piece frame cast?"
with: "Even more"

That German made Model Y will be amazing once they get the kinks worked out, lighter and possibly longer range.

Makes me even more excited for the Cybertruck. The 500 mile range was baffling because Tesla is good about hitting their specs (not good at timelines, but good at specs) and now we have the clarity on how they will accomplish the 500 mile range.

I have to say though, since the China Factory and Model Y Tesla has been much better at hitting timelines as well in the recent past.

 

[computerchuck]

The slide from Battery Day that has the two cast front fenders, rear single piece casting, and structural battery in between.

Also, I'll have to look for where it was said (maybe at Elon's trip to Germany) but he said that the Model Y built in Germany will be very different from the Model Y built in Fremont.

Edit to add source:

The Tesla Model Y Made In Germany Will Be Quite Different

Would love to see Model Y be the first candidate and I hope you are right.

But the only single form casting machine right now is the rear third section. It seems feasible that they would duplicate this first in Berlin and Austin. At that point, they could create a second mold machine. Since manufacturing the pack may take a lot of time, and the front section is a known and tested part, it seems reasonable for the second molding machine made be for the purposes of creating the single front section piece, before tackling the battery pack/middle section. Just my opinion.

FYI - I have almost no automotive industry experience. I'm coming at it from a standpoint as a business owner, project manager, and technician in a completely different industry.

PS. I played a small part if the team that created the first automated battery inspection machine and pack loader for Tesla's Model S & X.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

But seriously all the talk about personal finance is refreshing and motivating. It's healthy and may prevent people from making some dumb mistakes.

Like selling $TSLA stock before 2030? J/k...everyone's situation is different...nothing wrong with taking some profits.

 

[bkp_duke]

Being far behind as always, pardon me if this has been addressed before:
ISTR from the days of a few high speed highway debris incidents that the bottom of Model S battery is protected by about 6 mm / 1/4 inch hardened Al. Together with other internal module structures, now unneeded, that may yield enough additional space for the new, taller battery cell? Especially if the connections are also simplified. But what do I know, eh.

It's titanium, actually, and it's just at the front of the pack on the S because of space between the pack and the frame (I've installed one of these before, it's pretty cool).

That piece would not affect what was presented at Battery Day, but there was enough other changes and enough other superfluous connection items on the packs that in theory you could fit the new 4680 cells inside of an existing S. At the VERY worst the pack would be 1cm taller (or protrude lower), but there is plenty of room around the frame that surrounds the pack to allow for that.

 

[thx1139]

Have thought about this over the last couple of days.

What if the $25K Tesla is just a new version of the Model 3?

2022 Model 3 starts at $25K
Fabric seats
Smaller wheels
300M range
New battery cells
New construction using the castings like Model & is
Only emergency safety features. Autopilot and others can be purchased later.

then other versions fall in line with the pricing of the current version of the Model 3 has. May have upgrades like longer range, new battery tech, same new construction, etc.

 

[computerchuck]

Perusing that thread, Elon gives the side eyes emoji to:
"Full body casting?"
and
"Are you sticking to modules or going straight from cell to pack?"

He responds to : "Single or two piece frame cast?"
with: "Even more"

It would be "mars landing" phenomenal if they could achieve that by the time Berlin plant comes online.

Never bet against Elon!

 

[MountainRatMat]

Would love to see Model Y be the first candidate and I hope you are right.

But the only single form casting machine right now is the rear third section. It seems feasible that they would duplicate this first in Berlin and Austin. At that point, they could create a second mold machine. Since manufacturing the pack may take a lot of time, and the front section is a known and tested part, it seems reasonable for the second molding machine made be for the purposes of creating the single front section piece, before tackling the battery pack/middle section. Just my opinion.

FYI - I have almost no automotive industry experience. I'm coming at it from a standpoint as a business owner, project manager, and technician in a completely different industry.

PS. I played a small part if the team that created the first automated battery inspection machine and pack loader for Tesla's Model S & X.

3 castings, front left, front right, and single piece rear, that is what was shown on the Battery Day slide.

Knowing Elon he is going for it all at once in Germany, it is actually somewhat low risk because there will be 2 factories already producing Y's (Fremont and China) with Austin right behind so if it doesn't work in Germany they just make the fixes at the Austin factory.

 

[Singuy]

Have thought about this over the last couple of days.

What if the $25K Tesla is just a new version of the Model 3?

2022 Model 3 starts at $25K
Fabric seats
Smaller wheels
300M range
New battery cells
New construction using the castings like Model & is
Only emergency safety features. Autopilot and others can be purchased later.

then other versions fall in line with the pricing of the current version of the Model 3 has. May have upgrades like longer range, new battery tech, same new construction, etc.

Probably would be best to shrink the car as it's good for most European and Japanese markets. Improves on range, use less cells, and reduce cost. You'll be surprised how many cars are Toyota Yaris size in those countries.

 

[JBRR]

SEC.gov | SEC Charges BMW for Disclosing Inaccurate and Misleading Retail Sales Information to Bond Investors

SEC Charges BMW for Disclosing Inaccurate and Misleading Retail Sales Information to Bond Investors

BMW AG will pay $18 million to settle U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission claims that the Germany automaker and two of its U.S. subsidiaries disclosed inaccurate and misleading information about the company’s retail sales volume while raising approximately $18 billion in corporate bond offerings.The company inflated reported retail sales in the U.S. from 2015 to 2019, which helped close the gap between its actual retail sales volume and internal targets, the SEC said in a statement Thursday.

----

ssdd

 

[Lessmog]

Buyers are back?

Kall me Kilroy. Minor league, but I was there.
Actually in the process of shifting my TSLA from a template tax account into a zero-cost one because even the low 1 - 1.25% template tax starts to sting after 7 or 8 figures* and my formative trading days should be over by now.
*Local currency, but still.

 

[Robocop]

Have thought about this over the last couple of days.

What if the $25K Tesla is just a new version of the Model 3?

2022 Model 3 starts at $25K
Fabric seats
Smaller wheels
300M range
New battery cells
New construction using the castings like Model & is
Only emergency safety features. Autopilot and others can be purchased later.

then other versions fall in line with the pricing of the current version of the Model 3 has. May have upgrades like longer range, new battery tech, same new construction, etc.

I still think it'll be a new vehicle as Elon (I think) has mentioned that even the Model 3 is bigger than the average sedan in Europe? That plus the range advantage of a smaller vehicle (drag is quadratic, yes?). So even a slightly thinner/shorter vehicle could get by on a lot less battery. PLUS the battery day slide showing the new vehicle labeled it as 'compact/robotaxi' which makes me think they might make some adjustments that make it even better as a robotaxi.

Edit: Could see Model 3 dropping below $35k though, to bridge the gap!

 

[asburgers]

It is definitely different in Canada than in the US. In Canada you need to be a member of a professional order to be allowed to use the title “Engineer”. This is clearly not the case in the US as the term is used rather loosely. I’ve dealt with “Sales Engineers” . That being said, it doesn’t mean that someone without the formal education/title cannot be a good engineer. I have my degree and am part of the order of engineers, but Elon is a better engineer than I am by a few orders of magnitude

I don't know comrade. I see a lot of choo choo train engineers in Canada.

 

[MC3OZ]

Sorry I wasn't clear. I was comparing someone who is trying to eliminate their next ICE in their garage vs someone who needs a replacement car bc the "Engine" blew. Both can trigger the sale, but many are waiting for the right time to pull the trigger... like me I think. And if there are many like me, then Osborne effect can hurt Tesla albeit not as bad as a novel Portable Computer (to your point).

Anyone keeping their current ICE needs to pay fuel and maintenance costs as the car ages the risk of higher maintenance costs increases.

My impression is that Battery Day was very skillfully managed to avoid customers holding off on purchases as far as possible.

After Battery Day any expectations of cheaper / better Tesla cars in the next few months should have been eliminated, that is no accident.