Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Sudre]

If Fremont was so bad they would have put the Roadrunner line in TX.

I am not going to say CA is all bad but you put your high research line where you currently have your engineers. Then the full production line where you actually make the stuff.... Texas. I am curious to see if Texas cars get more paint color options in the future.

Fremont will continue to make cars. As the casting three piece method comes to fruition the space needed to make cars becomes less but I bet we do not see the production at Fremont go up. I can see that turning into the skunk works place in the US while still producing Model S, 3, X, Y. It in my opinion that PAINT is what will hold back Fremont production increases from now on.

 

[JRP3]

Then why say anything for Berlin? This essentially cut off any possibility of importing inferior Ys to Europe.

Some people may not think the tried and true technology is inferior.

"Lot of new technology will happen in Berlin, which means significant production risk. "
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1313854912212750346?s=20

 

[Robocop]

Fremont will continue to make cars. As the casting three piece method comes to fruition the space needed to make cars becomes less but I bet we do not see the production at Fremont go up. I can see that turning into the skunk works place in the US while still producing Model S, 3, X, 3, Y. It in my opinion that PAINT is what will hold back Fremont production increases from now on.

Not far in the future, the majority of Tesla's models will be outside Fremont. Obviously in # of vehicles, Fremont will be behind, but just in models alone. Fremont can't make S, X, 3, Y, Cybertruck, Semi, Roadster, 2, in-house all in reasonable volume. So you may be right, maybe it becomes more of an experimental area, prior to expanding the lines to Texas, Berlin, etc. If it's only some small % of their production, they can afford to shut lines down to make changes. Right now each line pretty much needs 100% uptime.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Interesting that the email talks of making and not delivering. Sounds like they might straddle the line, slightly more production, slightly fewer deliveries. At least, that seems to be what they're setting expectations for.

Gotta make the cars before you can deliver

Serious though, Q3 deliveries tracked very closely to production so Tesla's logistics are running quite well. Also if I remember right, Tesla has about 20k vehicles in inventory such as loaners, showroom models, etc.....They can easily make a year end push to get deliveries past 500k.....but the key is they need the production to increase enough.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Um sorry if this is off topic..but the SP seems to be making a move

Almost forgot what that looks like these days ... hopefully it is the start of the buying before earnings... sure could use some excitement around here

 

[woodisgood]

My timing is impeccable. Sold to roll DITM Oct 16s and of course the SP shoots up moments after my sell executes.

 

[kanweg]

I absolutely will. Used to do that at the Fremont Delivery Center on Fremont Blvd. and 12/31/2019 at Fremont Factory.

Apr 14, 2018: Tesla's "Secret" Off-Site Model 3 Parking Lot Porn Video

Tesla Fremont Delivery Center 12/30/2018

Tesla Fremont Factory New Car Parking Lot ALL Cameras: 1/1/2020 @ 12:40 AM - Count the leftovers! ;-)

Last time I was in Taipei, the Tesla showroom was just down the street from my sister-in-law Yuan-Mei's apartment downtown - no idea where they are now. Too bad my reaction time isn't fast enough to play bumper cars trying to drive in Taipei.

I thought that the first movie was from the future, 2030 or something. Bit of a bummer it was 2018, but hey it can still become true.

 

[bkp_duke]

Um sorry if this is off topic..but the SP seems to be making a move

Perhaps someone at a bank actually read Elon's tweets today?

 

[Unpilot]

Perhaps someone at a bank actually read Elon's tweets today?

Hard to figure ain't it?
I mean if the collective here knows the truth...

 

[arthayana]

The anti-Tesla articles seem like such weak tea anymore. This one at Market Watch: it got me to click.

The "real cost" of doing a stock split is that -- sure, its been well demonstrated that the market cap increases -- but the cost of doing that is that you lose the "high quality" investors.

So $TSLA is bad because of splitting that encourages retail investors to buy in. A good company only wants large, institutional shareholders.

Here’s the real cost of stock splits that Buffett knows and Apple and Tesla ignored

I think the article makes a perfectly fair point, though high quality shareholders are largely thoughtful retail investors and funds who have a sophisticated understanding of a company's worth. The article didn't come across as particularly anti-Tesla either.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Well that spurt of buying volume ended quickly........no one should be surprised to see the stock walked back down slowly throughout the afternoon.

We need serious volume to come in to signal to MM's that the gig is up

 

[phantasms]

Anyone notice the Apple event details released use the slogan "Hi, Speed" ?

I presume the speed is clearly pointing towards the use of 5G. People seem to care about that for reasons I still don't understand or care about.

Now it's safe to say the majority of us think Apple won't come out with a car AND if they did it wouldn't be a serious threat to Tesla. But also, it's not a non zero that Apple comes out with an EV and the market thinks Tesla will be toast. We know it'll just be a buying opportunity. If anything it would probably end up with Tesla selling Apple batteries. Apple may not be quite the innovators anymore but they're not fools. Personally I'll be dropping my very short position for the day and picking up a short position in Apple just in case.

Again, probably a nothing burger but it's something to keep an eye on for the next week.

 

[vikings123]

Well that spurt of buying volume ended quickly........no one should be surprised to see the stock walked back down slowly throughout the afternoon.

We need serious volume to come in to signal to MM's that the gig is up

I guess they have to spike up the IV at some point in preparation for the Q3 runup. Amazing what an Elon email leak does to the stock though. Volume definitely picked up.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I guess they have to spike up the IV at some point in preparation for the Q3 runup. Amazing what an Elon email leak does to the stock though. Volume definitely picked up.

Amazing what just a small bit of volume can do to Tesla's stock due to the low float and MM's falling asleep at the wheel(compared to other large cap stocks)

They quickly got into action to get in those continuous small sell orders haha

 

[Singuy]

Semi Conductor Analyst Chris Rolland's thought on Tesla's valuation. His company doesn't analysis Tesla therefore he is a shareholder.

Starts at 1:13:00

 

[vikings123]

Amazing what just a small bit of volume can do to Tesla's stock due to the low float and MM's falling asleep at the wheel(compared to other large cap stocks)

They quickly got into action to get in those continuous small sell orders haha

True. Also from a technical perspective it seems like most traders think TSLA is well positioned for another breakout so a decent spike like this one will bring along the day traders and swing traders. I would love to see more volume but maybe that will be the new normal with TSLA and we will see a drop in average volume since the initial split and S&P excitement are fading away.

 

[Tim S]

I am not going to say CA is all bad but you put your high research line where you currently have your engineers. Then the full production line where you actually make the stuff.... Texas. I am curious to see if Texas cars get more paint color options in the future.

Fremont will continue to make cars. As the casting three piece method comes to fruition the space needed to make cars becomes less but I bet we do not see the production at Fremont go up. I can see that turning into the skunk works place in the US while still producing Model S, 3, X, Y. It in my opinion that PAINT is what will hold back Fremont production increases from now on.

According to Elon's tweet today, Fremont will get a new paint system in about 2 years.

"Berlin will use 4680 cell... Also, a new paint system.

Lot of new technology will happen in Berlin... Fremont & Shanghai will transition in ~2 years when new tech is proven."

 

[Singuy]

True. Also from a technical perspective it seems like most traders think TSLA is well positioned for another breakout so a decent spike like this one will bring along the day traders and swing traders. I would love to see more volume but maybe that will be the new normal with TSLA and we will see a drop in average volume since the initial split and S&P excitement are fading away.

I don't know why people think technicals are hot garbage. It's like a freaken clairvoyant for what happens in the 24hrs the past two weeks straight from these youtubers I am following.

 

[Dancing Lemur]

Elon’s tweet helped my reversal prediction from this morning come true. Luckily I traded on that.

Now we’re in no man’s land between the price-that-shall-not-be-named and $450, with some resistance at $442. Nothing but headroom if the rest of the market keeps melting up.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Can we try to stop the leaking of Elon internal emails about stretch goals? I don’t like it, it just raises the bar for Wall Street, who now will expect a beat of 500K.

One can't rule out the possibility that this leak was intentional to reframe 500K as a production target rather than deliveries.