Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

Elon is so freaken confusing. First he says these cells going into plaid, cybertrucks, semi and roadster. Then he says high nickel 4680 only basically cementing the fact that it's not coming to the 3 and Y because he literally have a slide that tells us this
Now he is saying it's going to the Y first in berlin? Da F is going on?

If Y is getting 4680 in Berlin then they have no plan on importing Fremont Ys with inferior cells to prevent osbourne.

But then wouldn't Y in the US get it as well? Seems like they have indeed figured out how to mass produce or else there's no way they are putting in a beta cell line in Berlin.

Maybe they don't want to announce it for US because that would Osbourne. Once it's ready, we might hear that it is indeed going into US right away.

 

[Intl Professor]

So... no driver's will be fired?

How about elevator operators? How about Teachers? How about Accountants, Lawyers, and Surgeons?

In the future, there will be only one career: Engineer.

Cheers!

O

The flip side of that is oil stocks, the market is forward looking, but I still think many are underestimating the likely pace of change.
The movement away from oil and coal into clean energy will be faster than many expect.

Overall there is a section of the market that "gets it" and a section of the market that "doesn't get it", both sides are invested accordingly.

I used to think "reality is a(n) hallucination which is socially acceptable" was an original insight until I came across The Social Construction of Reality - Wikipedia which makes the same point less histrionically and, of course, with more authority. I remain convinced shorting Tesla is delusional in the long term.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Someone mentioned that there would be civil war if east coast got better tech in their Teslas. Seems like we are looking at WW3, Europe versus the rest of the world. Glad I'm on the right side...
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1313854912212750346
Berlin will use 4680 cell with structural battery pack & front & rear single piece castings. Also, a new paint system. Lot of new technology will happen in Berlin, which means significant production risk. Fremont & Shanghai will transition in ~2 years when new tech is proven.

The benefits of the 4680 cell will not be that obvious to the consumer. The 4680 pack should be much cheaper to produce, but that doesnt mean Berlin Y will be priced lower. Elon did mention the 4680 pack has a lower polar moment of inertia so maybe Berlin Y will handle better for a given pack size? Other than that, why would customers care what cells they have?

 

[Singuy]

Maybe they don't want to announce it for US because that would Osbourne. Once it's ready, we might hear that it is indeed going into US right away.

Then why say anything for Berlin? This essentially cut off any possibility of importing inferior Ys to Europe.

 

[dww12]

Does this apply to the 3 (in addition to the Y)?

That’s some gymnastic Osborn reduction. No loss for selling Euro Y now because they get the new one and can’t get the current one. No loss for US Y because we can’t get the new one for 2 years. Now we get to dream about the Euro spec Y like we did for the E36 M3.

 

[bkp_duke]

Elon is so freaken confusing. First he says these cells going into plaid, cybertrucks, semi and roadster. Then he says high nickel 4680 only basically cementing the fact that it's not coming to the 3 and Y because he literally have a slide that tells us this
Now he is saying it's going to the Y first in berlin? Da F is going on?

If Y is getting 4680 in Berlin then they have no plan on importing Fremont Ys with inferior cells to prevent osbourne.

But then wouldn't Y in the US get it as well? Seems like they have indeed figured out how to mass produce or else there's no way they are putting in a beta cell line in Berlin.

Y in US will likely get it when Terafactory Texas goes online. I would not be surprised to see 100% of Y production shift there, so that they can retool Freemont.

Just my reading of the tea leaves.

 

[JusRelax]

The benefits of the 4680 cell will not be that obvious to the consumer. The 4680 pack should be much cheaper to produce, but that doesnt mean Berlin Y will be priced lower. Elon did mention the 4680 pack has a lower polar moment of inertia so maybe Berlin Y will handle better for a given pack size? Other than that, why would customers care what cells they have?

Also, don't forget that any noticeable imporvements (primarily extra range, faster charging, and/or extra performance) due to the new cells can also be software-locked until announced that the new cells are in all new production vehicles (or even pay-for-software-unlock).

 

[lafrisbee]

NOTE: THIS IS NOT NUMEROLOGY.

I wonder why we're so intensely pinned to $420 (which was max pain earlier and might still be) this week? Usually, max pain primarily comes into play around options expiration on Friday...but this week we've been constantly dragged back to it throughout the week?!?

As someone who's been watching this stock's behavior almost daily for years, this seems really odd to me.

As to being "pinned to MaxPain this week". I've watched it for months, and sometimes it is pinned and sometimes it goes way up or way down for the week, and then tags the Maxpain price point at close on Friday.
My view is
The MM's don't want to be seen as controlling the market so they see what the road ahead is and let the stock meander but they damn well know all the influences that are going to happen that week and they have a game plan to use the least amount of resources to achieve the goal at close on Friday. ANd we don't have any of the variables to see how they do it.
All we can bank on is the end result. MaxPain will be achieved on Friday.
Before they even try to get to maxpain, They create the price point for maxpain based on what they see for the week. they will sell calls and puts based on whether they see the stock going up or down by Friday. If they are correct they have to influence the stock very little. If they are wrong they give it a whack.
Only rarely are they so wrong that they end up on the losing end. Often they can manipulate the price to end up on the exact dollar of MaxPain.
We do not get to see the MM's war room or chest. It is growing larger every Friday. (And leads me to wonder if s&P exclusion is desired by the MM activity.)
As an investor I am unhappy about the MM interference. BUT I do have an overview of the MM's just yanking the stock around on a micro/weekly level, but not stopping the stock from moving up or down over the long term. And yet they might be actively manipulating Volatility to their advantage as well.
-from inside the ant farm

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Then why say anything for Berlin? This essentially cut off any possibility of importing inferior Ys to Europe.

I would read that a bullishness on current Model Y demand in North America.

 

[Beltsbear]

Does this apply to the 3 (in addition to the Y)?

They will build Y production line first. After that, odds are they build a new model production line, the so called Model 2. Does Europe need an entire production line for the 3 at the same time there are production lines for the 3 in Fremont and Shanghai and a Y production line in Berlin? Or would that effort be better suited to a Model 2 line?

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Tesla Has Chance to Surpass 500K Annual Production in 2020, Says Elon Musk in Leaked Email

'It will be tough, but super exciting if we can exceed half a million cars made in a single year for the first time in Tesla history!"

"When we started Tesla just over 16 years ago, I never thought we would get this far, but, thanks to your hard work and ingenuity, we actually have a chance of making half a million cars in a single year. Wow, that is so incredible!!"

"This all comes down to Q4. Please take whatever steps you can think of to improve output (while increasing quality)."

 

[Beltsbear]

Then why say anything for Berlin? This essentially cut off any possibility of importing inferior Ys to Europe.

Tesla still is moving every car they make. You are over thinking this. If they imported the Y, it would be a high cost vehicle due to tarifs and shipping cost. Early adopters would be pissed when the Berlin Y was better and cheaper. Why piss customers off when USA and Canada will buy every Y they can make?

Also, why call Fremont Y's inferior? They are superior to almost everything else being sold today under $100,000. Most future Tesla's are better then current ones. Improvements flow. The Berlin Y will be better, but 'inferior' is a pretty harsh word for one of the best cars on the road today (Fremont Y).

 

[Singuy]

The benefits of the 4680 cell will not be that obvious to the consumer. The 4680 pack should be much cheaper to produce, but that doesnt mean Berlin Y will be priced lower. Elon did mention the 4680 pack has a lower polar moment of inertia so maybe Berlin Y will handle better for a given pack size? Other than that, why would customers care what cells they have?

Customers are expecting a 50%+ range increase even though that's not going to happen as Tesla will most likely reduce cell count per pack. Of course this is just speculation and people couldn't rule out the possibility that these cells will be some magically fairy dust.

It's not easy to figure it out since Tesla has added hardware and software locked everything in the past until announcement.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

MMD sale! Nov20 $500 calls on sale @ the low low price of $30! You heard that right friend, thirty dollars!

Now $20. Yeah, TWENTY DOLLARS!

$450's for that same expiration don't seem to have floated down at all since last week. Must be much more action at the $500 strike.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Tesla Has Chance to Surpass 500K Annual Production in 2020, Says Elon Musk in Leaked Email

'It will be tough, but super exciting if we can exceed half a million cars made in a single year for the first time in Tesla history!"

"When we started Tesla just over 16 years ago, I never thought we would get this far, but, thanks to your hard work and ingenuity, we actually have a chance of making half a million cars in a single year. Wow, that is so incredible!!"

"This all comes down to Q4. Please take whatever steps you can think of to improve output (while increasing quality)."

Can we try to stop the leaking of Elon internal emails about stretch goals? I don’t like it, it just raises the bar for Wall Street, who now will expect a beat of 500K.

 

[lafrisbee]

So "retooling" Fremont...why?
The disadvantage of Fremont outweigh the advantages.
Fremont once gave TSLA a "great" global position to be a worldwide distribution point for Tesla products. Shipping vehicles by boat to Asia and Europe. Very soon China and Germany will be the source for almost all the vehicle to Asia and Europe.
California is expensive for businesses/industries. California is toxic in terms of manufacturing.
A strategic retreat is already underway, as little as possible should be done in California.

 

[generalenthu]

Tesla Has Chance to Surpass 500K Annual Production in 2020, Says Elon Musk in Leaked Email

'It will be tough, but super exciting if we can exceed half a million cars made in a single year for the first time in Tesla history!"

"When we started Tesla just over 16 years ago, I never thought we would get this far, but, thanks to your hard work and ingenuity, we actually have a chance of making half a million cars in a single year. Wow, that is so incredible!!"

"This all comes down to Q4. Please take whatever steps you can think of to improve output (while increasing quality)."

Interesting that the email talks of making and not delivering. Sounds like they might straddle the line, slightly more production, slightly fewer deliveries. At least, that seems to be what they're setting expectations for.

 

[insaneoctane]

The benefits of the 4680 cell will not be that obvious to the consumer. The 4680 pack should be much cheaper to produce, but that doesnt mean Berlin Y will be priced lower. Elon did mention the 4680 pack has a lower polar moment of inertia so maybe Berlin Y will handle better for a given pack size? Other than that, why would customers care what cells they have?

Because some attributes are still undisclosed about the new cells. They might offer superior charge (and discharge) rates and they might offer longer life. Until we know these attributes, they might have offer some additional improvements.

 

[bkp_duke]

So "retooling" Fremont...why?
The disadvantage of Fremont outweigh the advantages.
Fremont once gave TSLA a "great" global position to be a worldwide distribution point for Tesla products. Shipping vehicles by boat to Asia and Europe. Very soon China and Germany will be the source for almost all the vehicle to Asia and Europe.
California is expensive for businesses/industries. California is toxic in terms of manufacturing.
A strategic retreat is already underway, as little as possible should be done in California.

Gotta continue to make Model 3s. If you dedicate Freemont to that (speculation on my part), and S/X/Roadster, then you can streamline production.

Multiple manufacturing sites give Tesla an efficiency option that they previously did not have, since everything had to be produced at Freemont just a few years ago.

 

[dww12]

So "retooling" Fremont...why?
The disadvantage of Fremont outweigh the advantages.
Fremont once gave TSLA a "great" global position to be a worldwide distribution point for Tesla products. Shipping vehicles by boat to Asia and Europe. Very soon China and Germany will be the source for almost all the vehicle to Asia and Europe.
California is expensive for businesses/industries. California is toxic in terms of manufacturing.
A strategic retreat is already underway, as little as possible should be done in California.

If Fremont was so bad they would have put the Roadrunner line in TX.