Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AZRI11]

@Artful Dodger I love the way BB midpoint is laser-focused on 420 this morning! I get a kick out of the way TSLA follows the "macros" like a sheep due to AI algos that read press releases IMHO. Like when DPOTUS (D=drugged lol) announces he won't negotiate to help people until after 11/3. Yes, that's bad for struggling folks, but unfortunately, as Elon said they cannot afford to buy a Tesla (yet) so he and team are working to fix that. In other words, that "macro" event did not affect Tesla sales in the next 12-14 months one iota because the people burned cannot afford the product anyway.

OT Alert:

On a personal note, my Taiwanese-American wife and I have had enough of California (AQI in Bay Area red again today), not to mention our 7-month self-imposed COVID-19/20/21/22(?) house confinement due to age and some health risks.

We are preparing our "Escape to Taiwan". Their 24M population has only had 7(!) COVID-19 fatalities from day 1. In Sept. they had ~25 infections. It is the ONLY country in the world without a travel advisory due to COVID-19!! The only downside is China's Xi is saber rattling because Taiwan's current leader is rumbling about a desire to proclaim independence or something like that? The USD is still strong - go figure? 首頁 - Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in San Francisco 駐舊金山台北經濟文化辦事處

You can actually *live* there safely, eat in restaurants, etc. My wife has dual citizenship reads/writes/speaks Mandarin fluently, but the Taiwanese all had to learn English in school. We just need a negative COVID-19 test within 3 days of boarding EVA AIR. I'm cashing in 225K AMEX points for 3 free outbound "Royal Laurel" (business they have no first) class seats, transferring them into Air Canada's new Aeroplan program to book an SFO->TPE Star Alliance flight that is "operated by EVA AIR". We all have P100 masks to wear during the flight. I'll have to self-quarantine 14 days upon arrival at home since I'm a non-citizen and non-student. Visitors like me can stay for 6 months at a time. We plan to stay in a modern AirBnB downtown near one of my wife's 5 older sisters. (I married the youngest one ha ha).

We're not returning until either:

1. UZLA (University of Zoom Los Angeles) becomes UCLA again and our son has to take "live" MSCS classes.
2. USA Covid-19 crisis is over and the country is stable.

We're lucky that we can operate our business electronically, or not and live off of our dividends, etc. As soon as we finish tying up some loose ends we're getting the hell out of this country for awhile.

If any of you decide to do the same, DM me for my email address and I shall answer questions/provide advice/my experience after we get there. I've learned quite a bit from some of you when I used to actively post in Model X then Model 3 forums and just lurk on here. I'm grateful for that so I'd like to pay it forward.

Don't forget to help the local Taiwanese Tesla service center with those end of quarter deliveries

 

[Beltsbear]

So "retooling" Fremont...why?
The disadvantage of Fremont outweigh the advantages.
Fremont once gave TSLA a "great" global position to be a worldwide distribution point for Tesla products. Shipping vehicles by boat to Asia and Europe. Very soon China and Germany will be the source for almost all the vehicle to Asia and Europe.
California is expensive for businesses/industries. California is toxic in terms of manufacturing.
A strategic retreat is already underway, as little as possible should be done in California.

So many people seem to over-estimate the cost of 'business' in California, and most of the objections seem to be political. The reality is the cost of business is not that much higher in California. You can look at labor, and find it to be 10% more, but labor is really not a big percentage of the cost to building a car. That coupled California being a very high demand state for Tesla and the good will (advertising) making in California brings. If Tesla loses just 5% of the California electric car market from leaving (especially if politicized), it will more cost more then it brings in.

Best strategy? Expand production in different parts of the USA. Re-tool Fremont two years from now, with a process that uses EVEN LESS labor per car. Tesla will need ALL production they can get to 2030 anyhow. If Tesla drops Fremont in 2030, no harm no foul.

 

[engle]

1. UZLA (University of Zoom Los Angeles) becomes UCLA again and our son has to take "live" MSCS classes.
2. USA Covid-19 crisis is over and the country is stable.

So pretty much, you'll never be coming back to the US again

LMFAO you may be right! If so, the long-term plan is to spend winters in Taiwan and summers stalking Bjørn in Norway . You see, my 87 y/o mother is first-generation Norwegian! Her parents were both born in Norway (Folvik became Folvig at Ellis Island). Grandfather Johannes was a Captain in the Merchant Marines in WW2 before and after. He collected stamps in each port (and probably other things, too, that he never told my grandma about). His parents had 16 children of which 12 survived so I have a copious (pun intended) number of relatives over there.

The population is 5.433M. The infection curve has almost flat-lined. I have many Norwegian relatives Facebooked. One (2nd cousin Catinka) is an SAS pilot. I'll never forget (unless I get dementia) my first family trip to Norway in 1967 when I was 7. My dad had brought a silent color 8mm film camera. He posed me in the middle of a group of blue-eyed blond Norwegian school girls. Some things you don't forget at that age.

Diversity pays when the USA is/appears to be falling apart before our astonished eyes.

~~~Appealing, and won’t be deleted....but it is just one more example of how just ONE Off Topic post engenders a flood of more. So: this discussion ends here - thank you. Any further will be axed~~~~

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Thinking about the number of $4,599 20kWh Powerwalls we can sell to middle and upper class Indians is really blowing my mind. Millions.

 

[Tslynk67]

Elon very chatty right now!

We’re so blessed with our CEO...

https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1313745938385575936?s=21

 

[lafrisbee]

If Fremont was so bad they would have put the Roadrunner line in TX.

and had to wait over a year to do it? riiiiight!

 

[Curt Renz]

Benzinga - today: Tesla Remains 'Misvalued,' Says SPAC King Palihapitiya

 

[bkp_duke]

So many people seem to over-estimate the cost of 'business' in California, and most of the objections seem to be political. The reality is the cost of business is not that much higher in California. You can look at labor, and find it to be 10% more, but labor is really not a big percentage of the cost to building a car. That coupled California being a very high demand state for Tesla and the good will (advertising) making in California brings. If Tesla loses just 5% of the California electric car market from leaving (especially if politicized), it will more cost more then it brings in.

Best strategy? Expand production in different parts of the USA. Re-tool Fremont two years from now, with a process that uses EVEN LESS labor per car. Tesla will need ALL production they can get to 2030 anyhow. If Tesla drops Fremont in 2030, no harm no foul.

We are getting off the topic of the thread, but I run a business, and do business in CA. It's VERY expensive to do business in this state compared to most others. I spend a @#$% ton of time minimizing as much as I can in CA.

Labor, especially skilled, is about 30% more. Then there are taxes, which you get hit for at multiple levels (state income, unemployment, etc.) which are higher than other states.

Politics aside, it is comparatively expensive to run a business in CA. Anyone that has done so will tell you that.

 

[Buckminster]

Maybe they don't want to announce it for US because that would Osbourne. Once it's ready, we might hear that it is indeed going into US right away.

The benefits of the 4680 cell will not be that obvious to the consumer. The 4680 pack should be much cheaper to produce, but that doesnt mean Berlin Y will be priced lower. Elon did mention the 4680 pack has a lower polar moment of inertia so maybe Berlin Y will handle better for a given pack size? Other than that, why would customers care what cells they have?

Tesla still is moving every car they make. You are over thinking this. If they imported the Y, it would be a high cost vehicle due to tarifs and shipping cost. Early adopters would be pissed when the Berlin Y was better and cheaper. Why piss customers off when USA and Canada will buy every Y they can make?

Also, why call Fremont Y's inferior? They are superior to almost everything else being sold today under $100,000. Most future Tesla's are better then current ones. Improvements flow. The Berlin Y will be better, but 'inferior' is a pretty harsh word for one of the best cars on the road today (Fremont Y).

Grapes tasting pretty sour huh...

I shouldn't throw stones - good chance the UK won't get RHD vehicles from Berlin anyway.

 

[bkp_duke]

We are getting off the topic of the thread, but I run a business, and do business in CA. It's VERY expensive to do business in this state compared to most others. I spend a @#$% ton of time minimizing as much as I can in CA.

Labor, especially skilled, is about 30% more. Then there are taxes, which you get hit for at multiple levels (state income, unemployment, etc.) which are higher than other states.

Politics aside, it is comparatively expensive to run a business in CA. Anyone that has done so will tell you that.

This is a quick and dirty comparison:
State Corporate Income Tax Rates and Brackets for 2020

For now, Tesla has been non-profitable for a long time, so they have tax credits that can offset their 2020 taxes and probably 2021. So CA state taxes will be a moot point, short-term.

After that, I would be really surprised if the bulk of their manufacturing was not moved out of state (CA can only tax things produced and/or sold in CA, not to other states). It would make sense to keep Freemont, but use it for R&D and low-volume production (S/X/Roadster). Anything that contributes largely to the bottom line should be moved elsewhere.

This completely ignores taxes for non-US production, which I have zero qualifications to speak to.

 

[Todd Burch]

Interesting that the email talks of making and not delivering. Sounds like they might straddle the line, slightly more production, slightly fewer deliveries. At least, that seems to be what they're setting expectations for.

IMO that's just because it's a letter to employees. The Wall St. rats and bean counters are the ones who really care about the difference between production and delivery. For everyone else who doesn't live on a quarterly timeline, it's just about making cars (which will get sold whether it's on the last day of Q4 or the first day of Q1).

 

[mrdoubleb]

Elon has now essentially indicated that MY in Berlin will have 4680 cells. However, that doesn't mean it will have all of the new battery puzzle pieces yet.

I suspect initial MYs might "just" have the new form factor/pack and tabless. New anode/cathode etc. could be integrated later.

Will most likely depend on the yields they see at Kato. However, I think they need to make (have made...) the decision whether they will go dry electrode or not. If they do not, they need a significantly bigger building for battery production. Note, that the battery production building has been deleted from the public plans. Most likely this means cell and pack production will take place in another building being built, like e.g. the drivetrain factory. As the new dry tech requires significantly less space, this makes sense.

 

[Curt Renz]

Thinkorswim newsfeed - 12:20:32 pm EDT:

Elon Musk in email to employees says "would be exciting if we can exceed" 500K annual production in 2020.

 

[engle]

Don't forget to help the local Taiwanese Tesla service center with those end of quarter deliveries

I absolutely will. Used to do that at the Fremont Delivery Center on Fremont Blvd. and 12/31/2019 at Fremont Factory.

Apr 14, 2018: Tesla's "Secret" Off-Site Model 3 Parking Lot Porn Video

Tesla Fremont Delivery Center 12/30/2018

Tesla Fremont Factory New Car Parking Lot ALL Cameras: 1/1/2020 @ 12:40 AM - Count the leftovers! ;-)

Last time I was in Taipei, the Tesla showroom was just down the street from my sister-in-law Yuan-Mei's apartment downtown - no idea where they are now. Too bad my reaction time isn't fast enough to play bumper cars trying to drive in Taipei.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Then why say anything for Berlin? This essentially cut off any possibility of importing inferior Ys to Europe.

Because it's what they're going to do and they want to be transparent. This is a new manufacturing process requiring new lines. It only makes sense to put them in the new factory, run the lines a while, then "upgrade" the other lines.

Minimal Osborneing here, most consumers have absolutely no clue of the differences.

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

Elon is so freaken confusing. First he says these cells going into plaid, cybertrucks, semi and roadster. Then he says high nickel 4680 only basically cementing the fact that it's not coming to the 3 and Y because he literally have a slide that tells us this
Now he is saying it's going to the Y first in berlin? Da F is going on?

If Y is getting 4680 in Berlin then they have no plan on importing Fremont Ys with inferior cells to prevent osbourne.

But then wouldn't Y in the US get it as well? Seems like they have indeed figured out how to mass produce or else there's no way they are putting in a beta cell line in Berlin.

As far as I can tell there is no cell supplier in Europe that has the ability to supply the volume of cells that are required for Berlin. Elon was clear at Battery Day that without producing their own cells they will be 100GWh short in 2022. It just makes sense to put a significant part of that Tesla cell production capacity in Berlin to avoid shipping cells or packs half way around the world. What cost effective alternative do they have?

This doesn't contradict Elon's statements related to Model S, Semi, Roadster and Cybertruck. The 4680s currently being produced by the pilot line in Fremont will be used in some of those products. My guess is that Semi or Model S/X will be the initial target.

 

[Tigerkc]

My wife's company recently moved few of their operations from San Francisco to Denver to save cost. Her department was one of the operations affected and she was retained to hire and bring the people up to speed. Her experience was that the quality and productivity of the available work force in Denver is substantially lower. The number of employees needed to perform the same functions turned out to be higher than in San Francisco. So at the end, there was no real cost savings for highly skilled work force.

 

[humbaba]

The anti-Tesla articles seem like such weak tea anymore. This one at Market Watch: it got me to click.

The "real cost" of doing a stock split is that -- sure, its been well demonstrated that the market cap increases -- but the cost of doing that is that you lose the "high quality" investors.

So $TSLA is bad because of splitting that encourages retail investors to buy in. A good company only wants large, institutional shareholders.

Here’s the real cost of stock splits that Buffett knows and Apple and Tesla ignored

 

[Unpilot]

Um sorry if this is off topic..but the SP seems to be making a move

 

[Robocop]

So $TSLA is bad because of splitting that encourages retail investors to buy in. A good company only wants large, institutional shareholders.

Here’s the real cost of stock splits that Buffett knows and Apple and Tesla ignored

Yep, you can't have both! Once the retail investors have shares, there's none left! /s