Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[smorgasbord]

Anyone notice the Apple event details released use the slogan "Hi, Speed" ?

I presume the speed is clearly pointing towards the use of 5G. People seem to care about that for reasons I still don't understand or care about.

Now it's safe to say the majority of us think Apple won't come out with a car AND if they did it wouldn't be a serious threat to Tesla. But also, it's not a non zero that Apple comes out with an EV and the market thinks Tesla will be toast. We know it'll just be a buying opportunity. If anything it would probably end up with Tesla selling Apple batteries. Apple may not be quite the innovators anymore but they're not fools. Personally I'll be dropping my very short position for the day and picking up a short position in Apple just in case.

Again, probably a nothing burger but it's something to keep an eye on for the next week.

+1 on the 5G thing. I think people don't realize that the reason their videos take too long to load and stutter is at the source. Maybe they're using a bad CDN, maybe the video they want to watch wasn't cached, etc. The pipe's not usually the problem.

And then there's the hype about 5G somehow making autonomous driving possible. As if everything a car could hit will have its own 5G location transmitter (pedestrians, bicyclists, dogs, etc.).

As for what Apple's doing with Project Titan - those like me who are talking don't know anything. Those who know something aren't talking. But, I don't expect a whole car to come out of there anymore. Apple probably needs to respond to Google's pushing of Android as the OS for automotive infotainment systems (this isn't Android Auto, which was Google's response to Apple CarPlay). I don't know if Apple can push their software down into automotive ECUs, but they would probably need to do something better than what Aptiv's "Smart Vehicle Architecture" is currently pushing (which isn't bad). Smart Vehicle Architecture: Making the Future of Mobility Work

 

[bkp_duke]

Elon’s tweet helped my reversal prediction from this morning come true. Luckily I traded on that.

Now we’re in no man’s land between the price-that-shall-not-be-named and $450, with some resistance at $442. Nothing but headroom if the rest of the market keeps melting up.

Volume is still kind of . . . meh. Not sure there are enough buyers for this really to be a break out, not without some additional catalyst.

 

[Singuy]

One can't rule out the possibility that this leak was intentional to reframe 500K as a production target rather than deliveries.

Pretty sure q2 earnings said 500k can be produced but deliveries of 500k is hard. But Tesla delivery more than they make q4 so we shall see. At the end of the day, if they miss their guide pre coronavirus by 5% no one is going to cry about it.

 

[Mo City]

Apple will never be a volume producer of autos. That ship has sailed. Maybe they buy an EV startup and become a niche player, maybe not.

Regardless, they are no threat to Tesla or TSLA.

 

[woodisgood]

Pretty sure q2 earnings said 500k can be produced but deliveries of 500k is hard. But Tesla delivery more than they make q4 so we shall see. At the end of the day, if they miss their guide pre coronavirus by 5% no one is going to cry about it.

We certainly won’t, but the SP will probably reflect some crying. Just more buying opportunities if so.

 

[Discoducky]

+1 on the 5G thing. I think people don't realize that the reason their videos take too long to load and stutter is at the source. Maybe they're using a bad CDN, maybe the video they want to watch wasn't cached, etc. The pipe's not usually the problem.

And then there's the hype about 5G somehow making autonomous driving possible. As if everything a car could hit will have its own 5G location transmitter (pedestrians, bicyclists, dogs, etc.).

As for what Apple's doing with Project Titan - those like me who are talking don't know anything. Those who know something aren't talking. But, I don't expect a whole car to come out of there anymore. Apple probably needs to respond to Google's pushing of Android as the OS for automotive infotainment systems (this isn't Android Auto, which was Google's response to Apple CarPlay). I don't know if Apple can push their software down into automotive ECUs, but they would probably need to do something better than what Aptiv's "Smart Vehicle Architecture" is currently pushing (which isn't bad). Smart Vehicle Architecture: Making the Future of Mobility Work

View attachment 596172

Many folks who were hired to work on the car have either left or been put on 'another' project so I'm not holding any powder for this announcement to occur.

 

[dl003]

This looks like a joke, but not. I feel like a fool for acting responsibly. Apparently when IBKR screamed "margin rates are too low, IMO", they meant index futures and derivatives only

 

[CanadaEV]

One can't rule out the possibility that this leak was intentional to reframe 500K as a production target rather than deliveries.

Yes, it is a bit of a fine point, but Musk does not usually fudge prior statements that way.
In fact, it would be a bit counterproductive for him to try. Deliveries are a very important metric for good reasons. Aiming for the very best deliveries as opposed to production is overall the best strategy for Tesla’s financial strength. It keeps their positive cash flow strong.

 

[mongo]

Pretty sure q2 earnings said 500k can be produced but deliveries of 500k is hard. But Tesla delivery more than they make q4 so we shall see. At the end of the day, if they miss their guide pre coronavirus by 5% no one is going to cry about it.

It was 500k deliveries per this question (can't easily find the basis for it though)
Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2020 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool

Emmanuel Rosner -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

OK. So when you're saying achieving 500,000 deliveries has become more difficult, was it really just a function of the recent shutdowns and some of these supply dynamics?

Elon Musk -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. It's not true at demand. It's really just a production issue. It's been pretty hard when you've got like a global supply chain, and it's kind of whatever the most effective part of supply chain is that sets your rate.

I mean, the number of rabbits do know how to pull out of a hat for supply chain is insane. Team has done an amazing job. So I think also some of our costs were related to having to use a lot of airplanes to get parts around because of part shortages, so we'll hopefully use fewer airplanes. That will improve our costs, but demand exceeds supply right now.

That's where we are now.

 

[Singuy]

We certainly won’t, but the SP will probably reflect some crying. Just more buying opportunities if so.

Nah, as long as they remain profitable with good yoy growth then it's fine. 2021 guide will probably affect sp more.

 

[Singuy]

Volume is still kind of . . . meh. Not sure there are enough buyers for this really to be a break out, not without some additional catalyst.

Technical traders put a brake on Tesla as it was giving out mix signals the past few days. I think today's signal is more clear so if it closes in a bullish fashion then we may see some volume tomorrow, unless there's another tweet that dumps the market.

 

[adiggs]

I am not going to say CA is all bad but you put your high research line where you currently have your engineers. Then the full production line where you actually make the stuff.... Texas. I am curious to see if Texas cars get more paint color options in the future.

Fremont will continue to make cars. As the casting three piece method comes to fruition the space needed to make cars becomes less but I bet we do not see the production at Fremont go up. I can see that turning into the skunk works place in the US while still producing Model S, 3, X, Y. It in my opinion that PAINT is what will hold back Fremont production increases from now on.

There is a simplicity and an allure to this idea (research and engineers in one place, manufacturing somewhere else). The beancounters in the US have certainly been a fan for decades, as have "investors" with a quarterly view of things.

I'm in agreement with the behavior I've been seeing from Elon; there are things you learn in engineering that improves your manufacturing, and there are things you learn in manufacturing that changes / improves your engineering. It happens that the company I work for also follows this pattern, with significant manufacturing and process engineering, as well as process research, all happening at 1 site, so I might be biased in this direction

You get this reinforcing dynamic with colocation of engineering and manufacturing.


That doesn't mean you need 100% colocation, but strong separation is a problem - especially if there are many time zones between the two activities. So California and Texas isn't nearly as bad as California and China, but you're still going to lose details and opportunities when separated.

I'm totally onboard with Tesla created an engineering team in Texas though! Heck - creating an engineering team everywhere they are also creating a manufacturing team -- if nothing else, it further expands Tesla's opportunity to acquire engineering talent.

H'mm... I wonder what it would take for Tesla to come to Oregon / Portland!

 

[mrjinglesusa]

Anyone notice the Apple event details released use the slogan "Hi, Speed" ?

I presume the speed is clearly pointing towards the use of 5G. People seem to care about that for reasons I still don't understand or care about.

Now it's safe to say the majority of us think Apple won't come out with a car AND if they did it wouldn't be a serious threat to Tesla. But also, it's not a non zero that Apple comes out with an EV and the market thinks Tesla will be toast. We know it'll just be a buying opportunity. If anything it would probably end up with Tesla selling Apple batteries. Apple may not be quite the innovators anymore but they're not fools. Personally I'll be dropping my very short position for the day and picking up a short position in Apple just in case.

Again, probably a nothing burger but it's something to keep an eye on for the next week.

100% this is announcement of iPhone 12 series w/ 5G.

There is 0% chance Apple announces anything related to a car next week. Zero.

 

[DurandalAI]

The benefits of the 4680 cell will not be that obvious to the consumer. The 4680 pack should be much cheaper to produce, but that doesnt mean Berlin Y will be priced lower. Elon did mention the 4680 pack has a lower polar moment of inertia so maybe Berlin Y will handle better for a given pack size? Other than that, why would customers care what cells they have?

Better track performance with CoM being further in the center of the vehicle. Stiffer midsection means better track performance. The 4860 cells can likely charge and discharge at higher kW, so faster than 250kW charging will be possible. Lighter pack will mean greater range and/or faster 0-60 unless nerfed. Less internal resistance from charging/discharging means less thermal caused battery degradation. There will be many benefits for the consumer.

 

[mickle]

From what I recall, Tesla Berlin currently doesn't have a battery manufacturing building being built. Seems like it is going to get pretty close timing wise to make 4680's in time for the rest of the factory being ready? Or maybe they will stick a small plant in one of the ones being built now?

 

[Singuy]

It was 500k deliveries per this question (can't easily find the basis for it though)
Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2020 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool

I remember in their press letter that said they have the capacity to produce 500k cars this year.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Quite a few macro up days where we barely track with QQQ, the spring is reloading. Good thing there aren't any big potentially positive events looming.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

One of these things is not like the other...

https://twitter.com/tesla_master/status/1313908031713808386

 

[Etna]

Apparently the above is for deliveries in the US.

 

[jerry33]

So "retooling" Fremont...why?
The disadvantage of Fremont outweigh the advantages.

Incorrect (in my opinion). The retooling can be done now. Waiting for a factory build (Texas) can't be done till later. Speed is important.