Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bkp_duke]

Except the day after battery day it drop down to $360ish or something at the opening. That is when I got in on Tesla stock for the first time. Wish I got in much earlier like most people here.

When I first popped into this thread around that time looking to buy some TSLA stock...the first response I got was good luck and expect to become addicted to this thread. Lol, so true...I spend way too much time here now.

True, it is an addiction, but this thread I would put up against any group of research analysts in the world that cover TSLA. It's a rare opportunity to have access to information and analysis this good as a retail investor.

 

[Thumper]

Indicative of the quality of analysis provided by bots, IBM news feed on Microsoft Money site has two articles about Deshaun Watson a football player which the bot thinks has something to do with IBM's Watson AI engine. LOL

 

[Cosmacelf]

Not a week goes by that I don't wonder how in the hell Musk is doing this with almost no competition anywhere in sight?

Don’t be surprised at the cluelessness of your competition. Bezos figured he had a 2 year head start when Amazon rolled out the Internet’s first cloud service. There were plenty of large tech companies who saw what Amazon was doing and who had the capabilities to replicate it and probably even improve upon it. It was SEVEN years before Amazon AWS had competition from now Microsoft and Google (and assorted smaller players). I have no clue why, but this kind of stuff happens a lot.

 

[Tslynk67]

$420 is dead, long live $435!

 

[dww12]

What is your timeline for Austin GF if you believe the new 4680 Model Y we now know will be delivered when Berlin GF starts production in June/July of 2021, if you think those new MYs won't start production from Austin GF until 2 years from now?

Correct me if I'm mistaken but didn't Austin GF break ground in mid July only 2 or 3 months after Berlin broke ground?
Some weeks back Tesla said 1st completion at Austin would be May next year. They didn't say what that was going to be but it suggests it's time line to start operations won't be far behind Berlin.
It's clear that they will get the various new MY lines debugged and ramped at Berlin and equipment in place at Austin ready to go once they are confident they've figured out start up problems in Berlin.

In considering when 4680 Model Ys for U.S. may become available we shouldn't forget that the biggest innovation after the battery itself is how much simpler the cars will be to build with the front and rear single piece castings joined by a simplified structural battery segment.

This is what Elon said. I am only commenting on Osborning. If TeraTexas is going to make MY with 4680 in less than a year I may put off buying a Y. If it is 2 years I’ll get the current US one or move to Germany. Maybe all US 4680s will be spoken for with CT and Semi and keeping MY with 2170s is the only way for 2yrs.

 

[Ipe]

This is what Elon said. I am only commenting on Osborning. If TeraTexas is going to make MY with 4680 in less than a year I may put off buying a Y. If it is 2 years I’ll get the current US one or move to Germany. Maybe all US 4680s will be spoken for with CT and Semi and keeping MY with 2170s is the only way for 2yrs.
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Why would you put it off? There’ll always be a new improvement to keep waiting for for the next ten years.

 

[Tslynk67]

This is what Elon said. I am only commenting on Osborning. If TeraTexas is going to make MY with 4680 in less than a year I may put off buying a Y. If it is 2 years I’ll get the current US one or move to Germany. Maybe all US 4680s will be spoken for with CT and Semi and keeping MY with 2170s is the only way for 2yrs.
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And then when you've waited for that there'll be something else coming to wait for. It's like a PC, iPhone, you can always wait for the next-best, and by the time you've waited it will already be "old".

Edit:

 

[Chunky Jr.]

wow, since it worked so well in Fremont, they must be anticipating so much demand at Giga Berlin that they're already building a tent for the overflow GA.

https://twitter.com/RalfThomas/status/1313958705021489152

 

[Singuy]

This is what Elon said. I am only commenting on Osborning. If TeraTexas is going to make MY with 4680 in less than a year I may put off buying a Y. If it is 2 years I’ll get the current US one or move to Germany. Maybe all US 4680s will be spoken for with CT and Semi and keeping MY with 2170s is the only way for 2yrs.
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Those who are willing to wait probably doesn't need a car. I get waiting a few months for the next version but waiting a year +? That just means you either don't really need a new car or you are fine walking to work.

 

[cusetownusa]

I probably fall into that catergory...I don't really need a new car seeing how my car (9 years old) is serving its purpose perfectly fine. Nor am I in a rush to spend $50,000. I am going to be following the Texas factory closely and hoping that the new technology being rolled out at Berlin will be applied to the Texas factory. To me, the new 4680 battery cells, paint shop, etc. are worth waiting a year or 2 if needed.

But as you point out, if my car crapped the bed today then I would just pull the trigger now.

 

[ZachF]

This is what Elon said. I am only commenting on Osborning. If TeraTexas is going to make MY with 4680 in less than a year I may put off buying a Y. If it is 2 years I’ll get the current US one or move to Germany. Maybe all US 4680s will be spoken for with CT and Semi and keeping MY with 2170s is the only way for 2yrs.
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Texas will probably be the second place to make 4680s after Kato, because Cybertruck and Semi both need them from day one. I wouldn't be surprised if the first 4680-power Berlin Ys use Texas-made cells.

Kato at 10GWh has enough capacity for the S,X and Roadster lines.

I suspect that 4680 adoption will follow a pattern like this.

Plaid S → Roadster → S, X → Cyber, Semi → Performance Y, 3 → Y, 3 → Model 2, Z(?)

Shanghai will probably be the last to get a 4680 line for IP protection purposes.

 

[Unpilot]

Except the day after battery day it drop down to $360ish or something at the opening. That is when I got in on Tesla stock for the first time. Wish I got in much earlier like most people here.

When I first popped into this thread around that time looking to buy some TSLA stock...the first response I got was good luck and expect to become addicted to this thread. Lol, so true...I spend way too much time here now.

You will be assimilated.

 

[Singuy]

Why anyone would still buy TSLA at the opening bell is beyond me. There is allmost always a better moment to get in, usually within fifteen to thirty minutes. You would expect every trader to be familiar with the (early) MMD by now.

Self fulfilling prophecy there.

Actually if you think about it, people are NOT buying at the opening bell, hence the MMD.

 

[Unpilot]

Pretty narrow channel we have been trading in.
I'm thinking we need the 3rd quarter report to light her off.

 

[Tslynk67]

Big effort by the manipulators right now... Standard walk-down pattern...

 

[Todd Burch]

Another super-low volume today.

Feels like the whole market is just holding their breath waiting for the elections to be over.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Big effort by the manipulators right now... Standard walk-down pattern...

Super low volume once again. In such a slow market it's easy peasy for these guys to push down.

Can we get these Robinhood guys another stimulus check please!?!??!?? $600 goes into $1200 almost exactly 2x.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Texas will probably be the second place to make 4680s after Kato, because Cybertruck and Semi both need them from day one. I wouldn't be surprised if the first 4680-power Berlin Ys use Texas-made cells.

Kato at 10GWh has enough capacity for the S,X and Roadster lines.

I suspect that 4680 adoption will follow a pattern like this.

Plaid S → Roadster → S, X → Cyber, Semi → Performance Y, 3 → Y, 3 → Model 2, Z(?)

Shanghai will probably be the last to get a 4680 line for IP protection purposes.

Berlin will start production "next summer". My bet: end of Q1, early Q2 - even if customer deliveries take a month or two to begin like it happened in China. I don't think Texas will be ready to produce cells by then. If not locally made, these would be Fremont cells for Berlin not Austin imports.

 

[jbcarioca]

True, it is an addiction, but this thread I would put up against any group of research analysts in the world that cover TSLA. It's a rare opportunity to have access to information and analysis this good as a retail investor.

Yes! This is even more valuable because we are so adept at factchecking each other. It seems all of us make mistakes, but they become corrected quickly, and usually politely. Frankly I care less about others being polite when they correct me and more that they do so. This seems to be one of a very few public foraa in which I find such value.

 

[Paul_SF]

Texas will probably be the second place to make 4680s after Kato, because Cybertruck and Semi both need them from day one. I wouldn't be surprised if the first 4680-power Berlin Ys use Texas-made cells.

Kato at 10GWh has enough capacity for the S,X and Roadster lines.

I suspect that 4680 adoption will follow a pattern like this.

Plaid S → Roadster → S, X → Cyber, Semi → Performance Y, 3 → Y, 3 → Model 2, Z(?)

Shanghai will probably be the last to get a 4680 line for IP protection purposes.

Have you guys actually seen the buildings being built at Shanghai? You really think they are not planning to do the new batteries in the largest market AS FAST AS POSSIBLE?

I guess someone doesn’t really understand the sandbagging that Elon needs to do. It’s the biggest sandbagging in history!