Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

Rough math...

Current Model 3 price 38K

Margin 20%

Cost to produce 30,400

Battery Pack 55 kWh - $100 per KWh = 5,500

Cost of rest of car = 25k

Savings from casting etc 3K -22K..

Battery $50 per kWh. = 2,750

Cost to produce = approx. 25k

Add 20% margin $31,250

My maths might be wrong, but 25K seems a long way away...

 

[MC3OZ]

Hypothetical 25K car..

Margin 20%...

Cost to produce 20K...

Battery 40 kWh at $50 per kWh - 2,000

Rest of car 18K....

Say 25% smaller than a Model 3 22K - $17,600

25% smaller and lighter seems to be in the right ballpark... things like seats, motors etc will not be much smaller
So cheaper parts need to be sourced and/or made.

Things that can be omitted:-

• Frameless glass on doors.
• Dimming Mirrors
• Folding mirrors - or perhaps mirrors all together,.
• Powered liftgate
• Support for towing.
• 12V battery?
• Electronically adjustable seats
• Heated seats
• Some speakers - lower quality HiFi

Glass roof on Model 3 was so robots could install seats.. a cheaper alternative might not be easy.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I don’t think there were any confusion, but I too have a wild guess that they would be able to reduce the cost of Model 3 to hit 25k with casting and new battery, may need a cheaper interior though.

I think Kathy was trying to bait Elon to spill the beans, but Elon was still in Anti-Osborne mode, and immediately shot it down.

I floated this after battery day, but most shot it down from a cost perspective. I'm holding on though. Anything is possible if you haven't caught on.

Could make it a discount for robotaxi inclusion, to get funding on the "ink cartridges" like 2 cents/mi fee on robotaxi income. "Sign up for roboservice, and use the car <25% for free anytime just for parking and charging it." Many things possible.

It's SO much cheaper to just build more of the same, especially body panels and their huge molds. But as far as we know today, this same Model 3 can't be done for $25K... until they show us how. I also think this will occur when Model 3 sales taper off. There are only so many people that can afford a $40K vehicle, so in about 2 yrs we'll know. Demand taper and Robotaxi growth could make this a preferred path and a very different world.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I figure the $25k car is going to more of the size of a Civic or smaller

Smaller is not necessarily cheaper. Same # of parts. Less steel and glass maybe is all.

Off to bed... need rest to get through this wild week ahead!
$495 before it drops on Thurs on demand FUD.

 

[Krugerrand]

If Model 3 becomes the 25k Tesla, I’ll make @Unpilot eat my hat.

Because it’s that time of year for more than one reason.

 

[heltok]

Hypothetical 25K car..

Margin 20%...

Cost to produce 20K...

Battery 40 kWh at $50 per kWh - 2,000

Rest of car 18K....

Say 25% smaller than a Model 3 22K - $17,600

25% smaller and lighter seems to be in the right ballpark... things like seats, motors etc will not be much smaller
So cheaper parts need to be sourced and/or made.

Things that can be omitted:-

• Frameless glass on doors.
• Dimming Mirrors
• Folding mirrors - or perhaps mirrors all together,.
• Powered liftgate
• Support for towing.
• 12V battery?
• Electronically adjustable seats
• Heated seats
• Some speakers - lower quality HiFi

Glass roof on Model 3 was so robots could install seats.. a cheaper alternative might not be easy.

Start with the 40k cybertruck. Make it 30% shorter, 25% narrower, 25% lower and a hatchback. Use thinner and cheaper stainless steel. No air suspension. Share costs with more vehicles. 4680 LFP batteries.

 

[gluu]

Hypothetical 25K car..

Margin 20%...

Cost to produce 20K...

Battery 40 kWh at $50 per kWh - 2,000

Rest of car 18K....

Say 25% smaller than a Model 3 22K - $17,600

25% smaller and lighter seems to be in the right ballpark... things like seats, motors etc will not be much smaller
So cheaper parts need to be sourced and/or made.

Things that can be omitted:-

• Frameless glass on doors.
• Dimming Mirrors
• Folding mirrors - or perhaps mirrors all together,.
• Powered liftgate
• Support for towing.
• 12V battery?
• Electronically adjustable seats
• Heated seats
• Some speakers - lower quality HiFi

Glass roof on Model 3 was so robots could install seats.. a cheaper alternative might not be easy.

As they get higher take rates on FSD, they can reduce the margin necessary on the hardware alone. The current 20% margin you're estimating includes ~25% FSD take rate. Wouldn't be surprised to see them try to sell 3 SR+ for under 30k once take rates are high enough on FSD. I also believe the 25k car is a sandbag number. I bet the starting price for that car will be under 20k.

 

[MC3OZ]

Start with the 40k cybertruck. Make it 30% shorter, 25% narrower, 25% lower and a hatchback. Use thinner and cheaper stainless steel. No air suspension. Share costs with more vehicles. 4680 LFP batteries.

The skin of the Cybertruck is structural so lighter cheaper stainless steel still needs to provide sufficient strength..
However the 25K car isn't hauling or towing, so less strength is needed.

Cyber definitely is a possible lower cost option, especially for lower volume production..

If the 25K car is really high volume, I'm not sure if that tips the balance in favor of more traditional casting, stamping and painting.

Sandy Munro did seem bullish on Cybertruck production costs... so maybe Cyber is cheaper, even for really high volume.

 

[JBRR]

Expect some FUD stories about fires again tomorrow.

There is a seven car (at least) fire inside Teslas service area in Malmo, Sweden. Started around 1.40 am local time this morning. According to local newspapers photographer it's inside Teslas fenced parking area. A couple of the cars totally burnt out. There is a picture that I'm sure the haters gonna find but not with my help so no link from me.

It's now also been picked up by Sweden's equivalent of APs new service.

I give it 50/50 between arsonists, not particular against Tesla, and a Tesla issue.

Several Teslas on fire at Tesla Malmö, Sweden. Police suspect arson. : teslamotors

Police suspects arson.

 

[heltok]

Several Teslas on fire at Tesla Malmö, Sweden. Police suspect arson. : teslamotors

Police suspects arson.

I pickup up my Tesla there, nice location and great staff. Very unfortunate. Malmö has had a lot of troubles with criminal gangs, petty crime, antisemitism, bombs and cars being put on fires over the last decade. Lots of white flight but also the proximity to Copenhagen and a decent cultural life has attracted some people to the city.

Another Tesla owner in Malmö was robbed and injured a year ago:
Google Translate

 

[samppa]

Several Teslas on fire at Tesla Malmö, Sweden. Police suspect arson. : teslamotors

Police suspects arson.

Well it's Malmö.. cars burning there doesn't usually even make the news. This time it's just a big thing because they were Teslas.. cars get torched there all the time.

 

[jerry33]

Btw. I heard someone say the big drop after battery day was because of the $25,000 car mention by Elon--initially, it was assumed that this $25K car was a Model 3 with lower range/lower margins. Has anyone else heard that as an explanation?

No. it was clear that it would be a different car.

 

[H Mak]

For what it's worth, Troy has just posted his 2021 delivery estimate - he's forecasting 60% growth in deliveries relative to his expectation for 2020 (500k). Glancing over his numbers, seems like there is still quite a bit of upside potential there, especially for Giga Berlin.
As a point of reference, Volvo delivered 705k in 2019.
https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/status/1318253550665949184
View attachment 600260

Interesting that Tesla will likely exceed Volvo next year because this year they will exceed Jaguar Landrover. Tesla started at the back of the race but one by one is overtaking the other competitors.

 

[Singuy]

I keep being surprised JLR is still in business. Not sure about the value of the bragging rights there.

Pretty sad that JLR is in so much trouble. Our jag 7 year old XF has been pretty reliable, more so than our mercedes and infiniti which both left us stranded with less miles. Land rovers however...yikes.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Here's today's Tech chart from 09:30 EDT:

Cheers!

 

[Unpilot]

Nice selling to start the day/S

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I guess there's nothing to do but lever up. Very surprising to not see a major build up before earnings. Up is down! Buy the news?

 

[Pezpunk]

I guess there's nothing to do but lever up. Very surprising to not see a major build up before earnings. Up is down! Buy the news?

you sell the news one too many times and inevitably it turns into sell the rumor.

whatever, i'm in no hurry. i can hold these shares as long as i want. only a fool tries to predict what TSLA will do in the short term. we all know where it's going in the long term.

 

[Unpilot]

Actually decent volume ...just in the wrong direction.

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

Anyone got a good guess for this morning's drop?? Even the news articles at the bottom are bullish.