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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I don’t expect it to sell out so quickly, people who are waiting for this trim are likely to need a loan to pull the trigger. They need some time to shop around since Tesla’ loan rate tends to not be the best.
People with enough cash Laying around should have got the MR last year.
Also deciding which color and which trim(how much of Tesla stetch they’ll do) will take a few dinner time to discuss. In 1-2 weeks we will see how it goes.
I also attribute the current TSLA dip to some small longs selling to fund the purchase. If they put some money in the stock around the same time they put M3 reservation, it’s still a sizable return even in today’s price, good for chuck of the down payment at least.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
New large batch of 13k Model 3 VINs registered today:
Q1 VINs are now up to 123.0k, which with the "85% estimate" is projecting a Q1 production target of 104.5k Model 3's - insane if true. (Estimate sounds too good to be true, 8k/week production sustained in Q1.)
23% were international, which suggests these were SR batches mostly already.
Q1 VINs are now up to 123.0k, which with the "85% estimate" is projecting a Q1 production target of 104.5k Model 3's - insane if true. (Estimate sounds too good to be true, 8k/week production sustained in Q1.)
23% were international, which suggests these were SR batches mostly already.
Whatever happens, it will be fascinating as hell to look back after a couple of years and analyze what I got right and where I potentially fooled myself in this investment case.
Rewarding, perhaps. Painful, potentially. Interesting, guaranteed.
Rewarding, perhaps. Painful, potentially. Interesting, guaranteed.
Isn't this the same guy that said there was not a lot of shorting on Friday but then the numbers came out later that showed something like 60% of the volume Friday was shorting?
I dont really take what he's saying at face value
Not quite. In Michigan, Tesla cannot have stores and employees cannot talk prices or help you order. However, you can get test rides at the Gallery.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Funny, we all knew the shorts we're aiming for March trying to lever off the bond payment due date. Here it is March and we're shocked to see these media/SEC attacks.
What's changed? Nothing that I can see other than:
1) Elon moving to plan B on the balance sheet. Certainly would have preferred to pay half this bond expense with stock rather than abruptly close most stores.
2) Moving up Model Y announcement by a bunch of months. Certainly would have preferred to squeeze out more Model 3 sales before pulling out the model most likely to crush it with US buyers.
Those are minor tweaks to the plan for executing the mission, so who cares? Sad for those abruptly laid off, but this is simply another option buying opportunity to try and ride the inevitable run to $1T+.
What's changed? Nothing that I can see other than:
1) Elon moving to plan B on the balance sheet. Certainly would have preferred to pay half this bond expense with stock rather than abruptly close most stores.
2) Moving up Model Y announcement by a bunch of months. Certainly would have preferred to squeeze out more Model 3 sales before pulling out the model most likely to crush it with US buyers.
Those are minor tweaks to the plan for executing the mission, so who cares? Sad for those abruptly laid off, but this is simply another option buying opportunity to try and ride the inevitable run to $1T+.
When I bought my S90D in early 2016 the associate at the store said that they were on salary and no one got commissions.No commissions, otherwise nothing?
dc_h
Active Member
I think there are two primary issues dragging down the stock, not counting the ongoing short wars\TSLAQult thing. Hyperchange and dual mandate: The pace of change the the dual mission of driving the transition to renewable energy fast as possible, and staying marginally profitable to avoid a return to markets for funding and hyperchange, like the store closing and move to online sales, the daily continual improvement in the manufacturing process and car design, changes to supply chain and logistics. Tesla is doing all of these things on an agile basis, while the rest of the industry is using legacy change processes that may take a year or two of planning to make minor logistics or supply changes, or update vehicle components mid-year, or making constant production line changes for processes that would be static for Ford and GM. Change is perceived as risk, until the opportunity is captured in results. Constant change is constant risk and
Regarding the store closures, Elon says Model 3 rollout was the last bet the company move, but it is not the last bet the quarter move he'll make. If it doesn't work out, they will adjust strategy and continue forward. This pace of change is just more than the market can comprehend and so it identifies the change as risk. This is very much like Netflix' move to streaming and I recall Netflix falling about 50% after the change.
Net present value is the risk adjusted value of future earnings, so adding risk subtracts from present value. This is true even if the change will create more future value until the future value add can be understood. This is not the way our mind works perhaps, because we are confident that there is demand for the cars and we believe Elon's stats that 80% of cars are already bought online. I think there will be tweaking of this strategy, but confident they'll have time to adjust before any hit to sales that would result in having to slow production or add significantly to inventory.
Today's tizzy about the Model Y comes on the heels of the 3 rollout just hitting stride and is part of Tesla's long term strategy, but is part of the plan to continue to grow 50-75%, which is not possible by industry standards. We've known and Elon has targeted March reveal since they went pencils down on the design. The fact that the street thinks this is a sign of weakness, when it was announced last year that the announcement would be mid-March is another sign of willful ignorance, or Tesla PR not doing a good enough job of signaling change. I'm not sure if they should do more public relations on the work they are doing to drive efficiencies? The new Grohmann production systems at GF1 were required to do the SR, both technically to build the new pack and financially to build the pack efficiently enough for the 35,000 price. Wall Street may choose ignorance, which seems to be thematic of most Tesla coverage, but Tesla could do 8-K's providing forward guidance to highlight target dates. Phil Lebeau and Tom Randall try to be objective on the media side, the rest of the industry seems to parrot a lot of TSLAQult inspired concerns.
The important question is if there is something Tesla can do to reduce perceived risk by the investment community. Long term this may not matter, but I think the doubt spreading may affect short term sales to some degree and certainly is a significant source of negative press.
Regarding the store closures, Elon says Model 3 rollout was the last bet the company move, but it is not the last bet the quarter move he'll make. If it doesn't work out, they will adjust strategy and continue forward. This pace of change is just more than the market can comprehend and so it identifies the change as risk. This is very much like Netflix' move to streaming and I recall Netflix falling about 50% after the change.
Net present value is the risk adjusted value of future earnings, so adding risk subtracts from present value. This is true even if the change will create more future value until the future value add can be understood. This is not the way our mind works perhaps, because we are confident that there is demand for the cars and we believe Elon's stats that 80% of cars are already bought online. I think there will be tweaking of this strategy, but confident they'll have time to adjust before any hit to sales that would result in having to slow production or add significantly to inventory.
Today's tizzy about the Model Y comes on the heels of the 3 rollout just hitting stride and is part of Tesla's long term strategy, but is part of the plan to continue to grow 50-75%, which is not possible by industry standards. We've known and Elon has targeted March reveal since they went pencils down on the design. The fact that the street thinks this is a sign of weakness, when it was announced last year that the announcement would be mid-March is another sign of willful ignorance, or Tesla PR not doing a good enough job of signaling change. I'm not sure if they should do more public relations on the work they are doing to drive efficiencies? The new Grohmann production systems at GF1 were required to do the SR, both technically to build the new pack and financially to build the pack efficiently enough for the 35,000 price. Wall Street may choose ignorance, which seems to be thematic of most Tesla coverage, but Tesla could do 8-K's providing forward guidance to highlight target dates. Phil Lebeau and Tom Randall try to be objective on the media side, the rest of the industry seems to parrot a lot of TSLAQult inspired concerns.
The important question is if there is something Tesla can do to reduce perceived risk by the investment community. Long term this may not matter, but I think the doubt spreading may affect short term sales to some degree and certainly is a significant source of negative press.
- Shorts have made 8-K's a big deal. Does Tesla legal need to be more aggressive and use the 8-k to signal upcoming plans? This would give Elon more twitter freedom as well. It could be seen as a negative, giving the competition more insight into future plans, but they have had 8 years advance warning and done very little in response.
- More press tours of the GF1, Fremont and Shanghai. Maybe the Willy Wonka thing is better, maintaining mystery about production and Tesla-Magic, but shining light on this new machine that is changing the world is needed? This is a big short theme, that they doubt Tesla has any secret sauce, they don't out innovate, they just cheat somehow. I have not seen any press articles on the new Grohmann line behind the new SR pack.
- A more activist legal stand against libel? I'm not sure this is practical and you would not want to do anything that would take Elon's time. Can they hire a social media and legal team to go after scurrilous and false claims on the Internet. Should they dox people working for other companies, if they exist, or lobbyists using twitter to spread false narratives? Regardless of whether shorts are colluding, they are working together to create a negative echo chamber. These channels become insulated over time as groups mute each other out and can become powerful. Twitter and facebook may not be able to solve this themselves, public people like Elon and Tesla will need to learn how to fight these fires. They won't just go away.
- Public service advertising. Not products, but marketing the Tesla mission. They don't have to swoon over environmentalism, but can target ads on channels like Pubic Television, sponsoring News Hour. I'd start there and maybe work outwards. Never touting products, but touting Tesla's mission to drive the transition to renewable energy. Make America Green Again. A lot of well informed people don't know how much cleaner an EV is versus ICE.
Elon operating out side of Elon time is considered moving up the date.
And in fact, he did move it up by a whole 24hours!!!
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Wasn't there something about needing new VINs for this year and couldn't use last year's VINs ?
Also, wondering if some of the VINs were for different trims - that are not used as the ratio of what is getting built is changing.
Yeah the vin registration numbers at this point are really puzzling and makes everything going on around the price drop and price strategies even more confusing.
The only thing that makes sense is Tesla knew their weekly production rates were going to increase to 7k/week(or maybe even higher) this quarter and is proactively trying to get ahead of any blimps in demand in the next couple of quarters and thus, proactively being aggressive about costs. There's really no other logical reason to register this many Vin's in the 1st quarter. Their production rate has to be at least 6.5/week if not 7k/week for most of the quarter.
Depending on loan term I was quoted 2-3% a few days ago. Lenders could care less which manufacturer you’re buying from.
But we know that isn't true as they change the formulation from the 60/70/85 kWh packs to make the and the 75/90 kWh packs. And then changed it again to alleviate some of the excessive degradation that was being reported.
So you think Tesla is paying for a battery chemistry specialist to come up with a new formulation and they aren't keeping the IP for themselves?
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
I read the fascinating story about Piggly Wiggly recently. Let's just say that they do not want ppl from the sector they regulate to go out of business. Otherwise there'd be no point of the enforcement agency.
I mean the loan rate Tesla offers on their ordering page is not always the best, so people (like me) will shop around and likely take loan from their credit union instead, the whole process take a few days extra, at least.
I will be extremely happy (and paper richer) if this starts a long expected/talked about short squeeze/capitulation but I have been around Tesla/TSLA too long to believe that Monday will definitely be a 'green' day.
Don't count your TSLA pops before they happen
Youre smart not to.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
That Model 3 production is probably above 6.5k/week for the quarter so far is something we know from Carsonight with a pretty high certainty.
What I'm surprised about is the implied 8k/week Q1 production target from the 123k VIN registrations in 2019 so far. If they are not reusing 2018 VINs that might explain some but not all of the discrepancy.
(Wondering how @tsunamiofhurt is interpreting these latest VIN registrations.)
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