Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Dwdnjck]

I visited La Jolla store today,early. Saw a test drive leave and also an order being placed. Business as usual so far.

 

[jhm]

There are different vectors all contributing to one result- total domination in the EV and transportation. To list a few:
- quality/desirability of product
- demand
- cost

First, TSLA developed highly desirable products. Being priced as they were (and the niche therefore), it was important to maintain healthy demand. Incentives as free supercharging, referral programs, fancy (Apple store like) stores all played an important role maintaining the demand. However, they were not "for free"- they were adding cost to the product.

With TSLA going mainstream, lowering the cost, becomes an incentive (by itself) for higher demand. Therefore, the other "more costly" drivers for that, were naturally removed.

Elon is very open about his plans and it all make sense, when you look long term. Cost will be the defining metric, when the EV king gets crowned.

All TSLA does is working towards that goal (without compromising on the product itself). Battery cost, vertical integration, design for manufacturing, 'Alien dreadnought', etc. all lead to this desired result. Constant progress, constant innovation, constant improvement, all with cost in mind.

After all, Ferrari is superb car, but the most profitable companies from the ICE era were the cost driven, mass producer specialists- Toyota & VW.

Bottom line / TLDR: It's all about focus.

So you're saying, Tesla will compete on value of product for the price while traditional automakers compete on customer experience at the dealership.

 

[Zaxxon]

There will be a lot fewer deposits soon as cars get delivered.

Pi day would beg to differ.

 

[neroden]

I admit that I am not a corporate finance person and did not stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night but don't they package these leases up and sell them OR get a bank to underwrite them (if possible).

Brian is the expert on the lease accounting, but I have come to the conclusion that Tesla is not getting 100% third-party financing on the "resold" leases, only 80-95% financing. They *really* want you to just get a bank loan, or go to a third party lessor directly.

Admit leasing is bad for the consumer in most instances but it would (might) be good for Tesla in that it opens up the market to people shopping for monthly payment amount and not total dollar cost for their >35K model 3s that carry a higher GM.

Yeah, and Tesla will have to address that market eventually, but it's a cash drain as well as looking bad for GAAP.

 

[neroden]

I agree with everything you said, but you said it, I didn't. I.e. I'm not sure if LR/MR/SR+ are all the same. They may be. But I continue believing strongly that SR+/MR are the same.
LR is around 80KWh, MR is around 65KWh, SR around 54KWh. It may be worth to Tesla to build MR as LR, sync $1500-$1800 of extra battery cells, in order to simplify production process and allow later software unlock, as you elaborated. But price difference btw. SR+ and LR makes me uncertain this is the case.

My unproven speculation is that the new Grohmann battery pack machine allows for the use of the same pack design with different numbers of cells... easily.

We won't get confirmation until the first teardowns of SR, SR+, and late-production MR/LR. But I think Tesla can now actually make packs which only differ by having fewer cells, and do so with no added production process costs. I think that's a breakthrough. Also a triumph for the "small cell" decision.

I am merely speculating, but I'm quite sure it's right.

 

[kbM3]

Anecdote:

My current Model 3 has 3-4 squeaks and rattles, which I’m guessing will be difficult for service to fix, plus it needs the glass roof replaced from a rock.

Because I thought that I would like white interior and Aeros, I decided to treat myself and trade-in for a new one.

I went online and it immediately was asking for credit card info before I identified my trade-in, which I’m obviously not willing to do.

Since I recently moved to Orlando, I thought I would just go to the dealer. They immediately told me I would not get a good trade-in valuation from Tesla (even though I’m trading in a Tesla) and suggested CarMax.

Now I’m faced with going first to CarMax to get a quote which will expire in 7 days, which I’m assuming would be well before my new Model 3 would be ready.

Too much friction. This has to be solved. Were I not a die-hard Tesla fan, I would be very tempted to go somewhere else.

As it is, I will probably just keep my car.

 

[voip-ninja]

Nafnlaus on Twitter

View attachment 382878

That's a pretty lopsided look at things.

Alternatively;

1. We just slashed prices of our cars, everything must go.
2. Slashed prices on options and in some cases left heartburn with customers who paid much more for options we are now giving away for very little.
3. We had said that we planned on being profitable every quarter after our blockbuster Q3 earnings, but we left some wiggle room about special circumstances, and, uh., we have some of those so Q1 is not going to be profitable. Sorry.
4. We're closing many or most of our retail stores... btw, we also shafted a bunch of employees on their bonuses and we're hoping they will just leave.
5. I hate the SEC and my name is Elon.

As always, reality is somewhere in the middle of the naysayers and the bulls that run this place.

 

[KarenRei]

CNBC:

Phil LeBeau:

• Recapping the tweets about Model Y. Bearish about timeline: "Remember guys, we're not going to see that for at least 18, maybe 20-24 months"
• Re: the crashes: Taking a responsible attitude toward them. Pointing out about how everyone jumps to blame Autopilot. Got the other host to agree, "Everyone remembers when people blame autopilot, not everyone remembers the outcomes."

Love Phil. One of the only people on CNBC who's ever fair and responsible about Tesla.

I hope the broader markets are as bearish as he is about the MY timeline. The 14th will be a nice surprise.

 

[voip-ninja]

Anecdote:

My current Model 3 has 3-4 squeaks and rattles, which I’m guessing will be difficult for service to fix, plus it needs the glass roof replaced from a rock.

Because I thought that I would like white interior and Aeros, I decided to treat myself and trade-in for a new one.

I went online and it immediately was asking for credit card info before I identified my trade-in, which I’m obviously not willing to do.

Since I recently moved to Orlando, I thought I would just go to the dealer. They immediately told me I would not get a good trade-in valuation from Tesla (even though I’m trading in a Tesla) and suggested CarMax.

Now I’m faced with going first to CarMax to get a quote which will expire in 7 days, which I’m assuming would be well before my new Model 3 would be ready.

Too much friction. This has to be solved. Were I not a die-hard Tesla fan, I would be very tempted to go somewhere else.

As it is, I will probably just keep my car.

I am taking mine to service on Thursday as I have several rattles that are intermittent and are driving me crazy.

However, trading a perfectly drivable one year old car on a new one because you want a different color and are hoping that this dice roll leaves you with a car with fewer rattles is pure insanity. With the recent price cut you are going to get completely annihilated on your trade.

Continue working with Tesla and try to get them to address your concerns.

 

[shlokavica22]

So you're saying, Tesla will compete on value of product for the price while traditional automakers compete on customer experience at the dealership.

Tesla doesn't compete. They are setting the benchmark. Any EV coming to market have to match this benchmark, or simply won't succeed (purely on cost basis).
We already see that happening with the new Polestar. They are forced to match TSLA's model. Dealers add cost. They have to be removed from the equation (easier said than done).

 

[Johnny Ma]

Shorts are swarming on Twitter. Filing SEC complaints for anything and everything. Some are seriously convinced bankruptcy is imminent, some are taking advantage of this fear to spread more FUD. Haven't seen it like this since the 420 tweet/SEC suit agains Elon and Tesla. Simply search for $TSLAQ on twitter to see the whole mess.

 

[Buckminster]

283.19 USD −11.60 (3.94%)

I'm calling this the bottom - never ever ever to go lower. Need to buy an edible hat.

 

[bramsvs]

Except that current is not speed. Electrons travel at the same rate through annealed copper regardless of current level (ignoring zero). They could make the electrons faster by using hard drawn copper or silver though...

Speed of electricity - Wikipedia

Ehm current is speed of the electrons, see: Drift velocity - Wikipedia

You're mixing up the speed of the electromagnetic waves vs the speed of electrons
More here: https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-s...much-time-it-would-take-for-the-light-to-glow

 

[neroden]

I wouldn’t be driving a Tesla if there were no test drives. I hope they don’t get rid of test drives, maybe the service centers will offer them? Test drive sells the car. No test drive would work in Cali since everyone and their mom has a Tesla, but elsewhere that is a bad move.

You can get a test drive in Ithaca, NY. Just wait for Drive Electric Week.

 

[neroden]

The other benefits of stimulating US demand are the pull-forward before the next phase-down of the FIT credits and earning ZEV, CAFE, & GHG credits.

OK, I give up, what the heck are FIT credits?

 

[Tenable]

Anecdote:

My current Model 3 has 3-4 squeaks and rattles, which I’m guessing will be difficult for service to fix, plus it needs the glass roof replaced from a rock.

Because I thought that I would like white interior and Aeros, I decided to treat myself and trade-in for a new one.

I went online and it immediately was asking for credit card info before I identified my trade-in, which I’m obviously not willing to do.

Since I recently moved to Orlando, I thought I would just go to the dealer. They immediately told me I would not get a good trade-in valuation from Tesla (even though I’m trading in a Tesla) and suggested CarMax.

Now I’m faced with going first to CarMax to get a quote which will expire in 7 days, which I’m assuming would be well before my new Model 3 would be ready.

Too much friction. This has to be solved. Were I not a die-hard Tesla fan, I would be very tempted to go somewhere else.

As it is, I will probably just keep my car.

If it makes you feel better I went to CarMax a week ago. They offered me 10k less than Tesla on my Model S.

 

[Buckminster]

Poll update:
Majority not expecting Model Y or V3 to affect SP greatly.

What do you expect the Share Price to be in March (post V3 & post MY)

1. 
   <310 at close on 7th March plus <320 on 15th March close
   8 vote(s)
   57.1%
2. 
   <310 at close on 7th March plus 320-350 on 15th March close
   2 vote(s)
   14.3%
3. 
   >310 at close on 7th March plus <320 on 15th March close
   0 vote(s)
   0.0%
4. 
   >310 at close on 7th March plus 320-350 on 15th March close
   1 vote(s)
   7.1%
5. 
   >350 on 15th March close
   3 vote(s)
   21.4%
   

New threads:

Supercharger V3
Supercharger V3 (Investors thread)

Model Y
Model Y (Investors thread)

 

[EVNow]

As always, reality is somewhere in the middle of the naysayers and the bulls that run this place.

That's actually not true.

For eg. if Trump says AGW is a Chinese created hoax and scientists say AGW is real - is the "reality" somewhere in between ? In many cases chances of one of them being correct is higher than anything in between.

 

[TheMrX]

That's not accurate at all. Elon has stated there are no plans to switch the S/X to 2170 batteries. Even when asked about S/X refresh on latest earnings, he said "we won't comment on future products"

Plus you're forgetting about the renders/concepts of the S/X that leaked a while back which looked very legit. There is at the very least a interior refresh coming, we just don't know when.

Thanks for your input, I stand corrected.

 

[voip-ninja]

That's actually not true.

For eg. if Trump says AGW is a Chinese created hoax and scientists say AGW is real - is the "reality" somewhere in between ? In many cases chances of one of them being correct is higher than anything in between.

No, your terrible political analogy would be more accurate if you said the two extremes were that someone said AGW is a hoax and someone else said that if we don't wage a WW2 scale effort against AGW that involves things like banning air travel and hamburgers that we're all screwed in a few years.