Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

Especially because the competition has to go through a painful rollout process in each area they cover--city by city. And it's not just "I can do Dallas" or "I can do Houston" because most urban areas are made up of multiple cities with their own city counsels.

The last time I went camping was in August when the stock popped 13% on the Monday.

I’m going camping next Monday.

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Mondays have new value! I look forward to them... and that's a first!

 

[Nocturnal]

Well, I'm ashamed to admit that I sold some TSLA today.



I needed the money to buy some TSLA LEAPs. I mean come on. We just came off a near perfect quarter during a global pandemic, battery day shows the growth to complete dominance, and FSD looks as good as promised. On top of all that a blue wave that might really boost solar, EVs, and home efficiency looks likely.

 

[Singuy]

To be fair Q3 #s were also incredible and the stock is down $11/share from close right before announcement of them.

I have heard from a couple of the folks I mentioned I dunno maybe a week ago in here- the folks who say the huge run earlier this year was anticipatory of Tesla executing excellently going forward- basically with a "told ya so" that an ER showing them doing that didn't start another huge run, because it's essentially all priced in now and the company needs to catch up some to its current valuation before it can run some more.

It does make a certain amount of sense- though I think depending on the speed of the new FSD improvement it may or may not hold up long as that at least was certainly not priced in.

The huge run up was due to the stock split because we were bleeding after a positive q2 report as well and that was on the backs of people anticipating s&p, and once that failed we went down to the 310s.

Those are the large stock moving events after q1. Battery day didn't do much, fsd and q3 didn't do much. Basically the largest move up and down were not based on fundamentals at all so who is pricing what in? If anything people are justifying current sp with all the news..so all the pricing in action is probably happening right now.

 

[Krugerrand]

Right, have put money to work as well. But recalls based on cruddy manufacturing...well that makes Tesla like every other OEM. Not a good look. I call it predictable because Tesla was doing this from scratch...and as such to be expected.

And don’t get too hooked on these ideas of prices ‘never to be seen again’. I have been around long enough to discount stuff like that.

Stay flexible and keep your eyes open.

I’m calling bs on this. You’re trying way too hard to be neutral/pick a word. That you would even say it makes Tesla like every other OEM is vomit worthy and clearly a determined position to ignore absolutely every way in which Tesla is different in context.

The damaged battery casing from highway debris ‘recall’.
The ‘you might have a loose seat/seat belt bolts’ so we’ll catch you at your next Supercharger stop or stop by a SC when you get a chance so we can check.
The lost recent roof flying incident, so let’s contact X number of vehicles made prior to and after that one to make sure it was just a one off.

I can go on.

You want to keep yourself at a more level keel in enthusiasm, knock yourself out. But do not purposefully try to negatively suggest this current issue somehow is worse than it is or makes Tesla like VW, GM et al...

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Well, I'm ashamed to admit that I sold some TSLA today.



I needed the money to buy some TSLA LEAPs. I mean come on. We just came off a near perfect quarter during a global pandemic, battery day shows the growth to complete dominance, and FSD looks as good as promised. On top of all that a blue wave that might really boost solar, EVs, and home efficiency looks likely.

I just got done paying off the leverage I used(2 Heloc's well into the 6 digits) to buy more Tesla at 360 back in March, as well as buying more and more in the 500's, 600's, 800's, and 900's(all pre split).

I'm now considering leveraging up again with low interest debt to buy more now. I shouldn't be surprised that the stock is trading like it has for the past month. After all, we went through years of Wall St snubbing it's thumb at Tesla. But dear lord Wall st......Tesla just released a software build of something that is more impressive than companies that have spent 20 yrs in software "Tech". The notion that Tesla is just a car company completely died when the FSD build went out. Tesla out tech'd tech.....in one the most complex software/technology areas ever.

 

[UncaNed]

When Standard 2D holds, why use 3?
It's like using 50MA, 100 MA, 200 MA in sequence as each breaks/supports ...

Where exactly is somebody applying 50, 100, and 200 milliamps, and how and where exactly does that somehow access 2 and 3 dimensions??

 

[BornToFly]

Surprising number of recalls surfaced since ER. People are digging for dirt, huh?

On a sidenote, I’m trying the trick to sell cheap puts to expand my margin and avoid my usual margin call but no matter what price I select, ETrade tells me I have insufficient funds. Any thoughts...?

Call them. I used to have to call Fidelity to push through the purchase of the cheap Puts that would make my margin call go away.

Edit: You need to buy Puts, not sell them. Doing the latter will make your margin call worse.

 

[Tslynk67]

Off topic (way off), why do people use periods instead of a comma in numbers like this. A period for me is reserved for decimals. How would you write 30M with a decimal 125? Would look like 30B, no?
Who knows, maybe someone of importance was low on ink and their typewriter turned commas into periods back in the day...

What makes more sense is the price action today.

We had this discussion a few years back. Suffice to say that there's no international standard on this, here in Belgium, for instance, the comma is used as the decimal separator the the period for the thousands.

And yes, it took me several years to get used to that after I first arrived here

But at least we do have the metric system, which is far superior to the antiquated and ridiculous imperial.

 

[TespaceX]

I am not lucky and have had no repair issues on my 2018 S.

It doesn’t happen to everyone, but it does happen to many. If not now, eventually, it can. Just go over on the S and X forums, even Raven models are affected. If yours becomes affected, just hope that it happens while you are still under warranty or there is a recall. Otherwise, the fix is in the thousands of dollars. (Contrary to what a previous poster said about the Chinese recall only costing about $30M).

ETA: not trying to make the situation worse than it reads. Just want to point out that many owners in the US have been experiencing problems.

 

[Krugerrand]

Ya weird, on the map, it looks like the car plotted the right path and detected everything correctly. For some reason it's turning and using the shortest sharpest path instead of using a, smooth rounded corner path.

I see people drive like that all the time, so I’m not sure why anyone would be concerned or otherwise that a not yet mature FSD entity would do it.

I’m waiting for people to complain that it signals for every lane change and turn - because humans sure don’t, that it comes to a full stop for every red light and stop sign - because humans don’t do that, and so on.

FSD being held to a standard (higher) different than humans in the same way EVs and everything Tesla does is held to a standard (higher) than any other EV or OEM is just a single example of the absurdity of humans. We’re idiots.

 

[ThisStockGood]

Off topic (way off), why do people use periods instead of a comma in numbers like this. A period for me is reserved for decimals. How would you write 30M with a decimal 125? Would look like 30B, no?
Who knows, maybe someone of importance was low on ink and their typewriter turned commas into periods back in the day...

What makes more sense is the price action today.

haha - true, I’m Dane as Dane can be! Sorry for the misunderstanding. I do my best!

 

[Tslynk67]

We're those major recalls? I've been driving Model S since 2013 and never had to come back, but during regular services they fixed some minor issues that were on the bulletin and could be classified as minor recalls (not major enough to ask owners to come in for).

Same here, in the early days whenever you took the car near a Service Centre, they applied all sorts of service bulletins.

Now with my MX I don't think I saw one. Although I did have acceleration judder (mostly in Ludicrous Mode), which was resolved by wapping to new drive-shafts.

What I did see, on Twitter, was that Gary Black mentioned that this same case was looked at by the US authorities and not deemed to be an problem. So almost certainly not a safety issue and likely not manifesting on many cars.

 

[SOULPEDL]

We had this discussion a few years back. Suffice to say that there's no international standard on this, here in Belgium, for instance, the comma is used as the decimal separator the the period for the thousands.

And yes, it took me several years to get used to that after I first arrived here

But at least we do have the metric system, which is far superior to the antiquated and ridiculous imperial.

Now you made me miss Canada! I was there when it changed to metric. It was no big deal (for a kid anyway).
I first saw the difference when looking at machine drawings from the EU at Intel. But still, Canadians use the comma separator like US. So Canada either broke rank or this change was within the past 150 years.

I hope I'm not rehashing old stuff here. Sorry in advance.

 

[phantasms]

I'm calling ARK purchases today.

 

[Tslynk67]

One really should not follow what is in print about max pain. It moves around everyday all day. I don't know how many times that has to be explained before it is figured out. Also 430 is an average of many groups. We have no clue who has the power. For the entire week THEY were not concerned about 430 altho THEY would have made extra profits if it closed there.

I would expect this to push up to >$420 but THEY are not really bothering to push the stock around this week because as many have tried to explain before THEY are only interested in the money they make off premiums. They already have the stock to hand out at a average price significantly UNDER whatever people can push it up or down to.

Note I think 420 PUTS went up slightly and CALL under that went down.

Now if we had dropped into the $3xx price range I think THEY would have felt some pain.

What I do find interesting is the complete lack of interest in the stock. Analysts are not panning this ER. They are saying it was a great quarter. The only ones saying anything negative are the people that even the idiots know are idiots and that's why the price is following macros with the typical TSLA multiple. I really thought the price had not factored in some of the things that were accomplished this past quarter. Next week will indicate that for sure. If everything was priced in then these low $400s is where we hang around until positive news on the macro side or from TSLA..... or negative.


Does anyone think that maybe people are holding off waiting for the first FSD beta accident? I know to you and me that is a trivial thing but maybe since FSD beta is out there is a general fear that there will be some major accident in the news and that will tank the price. Your thought?


FRI graph from this morning....
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Thursday....
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Still surprised in THEY allow so many puts to exercise, because that means forking out cash, not the same as allowing calls when you already bought the stock at a lower price.

However, I don't think this has anything to do with FSD, $420 has been a magnet to the price for several weeks now already.

I think there are several factors at play:
- we're 12x up on the low of last June, and a lot of that rise is future value, not current
- That freaking stimulus, of course
- election uncertainty
- C19 fear

What's a bit weird is that we've had nothing but good news for a few months now, and none of that has really shifted us upwards.

I would say that now would actually be a good moment for the S&P folks to make a move. If they're paying attention, of course, because this malaise won't last forever.

On days like this, I do find it comforting to look at a longer time-perspective:

 

[GOVA]

I have watched several videos of the very beginning for FSD in beta. Not many realize that this is the most profound change in last 120+ years of human history with cars.

There are still issues of course. It really looks to me that once the system gets more data to learn it will be truly groundbreaking.

Frankly, this is getting unreal. Shorties and tools will want to keep FSD quiet. Can't wait to see all a year from now.

This is one video that I did like:

 

[BriansTesla]

I see people drive like that all the time, so I’m not sure why anyone would be concerned or otherwise that a not net mature FSD entity would do it.

I’m waiting to people to complain that it signals for every lane change and turn - because humans sure don’t, that it comes to a full stop for every red light and stop sign - because humans don’t do that, and so on.

FSD being held to a standard (higher) different than humans in the same way EVs and everything Tesla does is held to a standard (higher) than any other EV or OEM is just a single example of the absurdity of humans. We’re idiots.

When autopilot first came out, I kept thinking that it would never be as good a driver as I am.

Then I thought about myself in my worst moments; distracted, tired, reaching for the water bottle, looking at the woman in the Tesla next to me (I actually hit the car in front of me). My perspective is different now and I'm looking forward to the next evolution.

 

[traxila]

I’m calling bs on this. You’re trying way too hard to be neutral/pick a word. That you would even say it makes Tesla like every other OEM is vomit worthy and clearly a determined position to ignore absolutely every way in which Tesla is different in context.

The damaged battery casing from highway debris ‘recall’.
The ‘you might have a loose seat/seat belt bolts’ so we’ll catch you at your next Supercharger stop or stop by a SC when you get a chance so we can check.
The lost recent roof flying incident, so let’s contact X number of vehicles made prior to and after that one to make sure it was just a one off.

I can go on.

You want to keep yourself at a more level keel in enthusiasm, knock yourself out. But do not purposefully try to negatively suggest this current issue somehow is worse than it is or makes Tesla like VW, GM et al...

Disagree with recalls being spun as a nothing or slightly positive because it only costs 30 million. It is what it is - an error that needs correcting. Still an error.

Never said it was worse than an OEM recall. You did.

This is a minor thing. But it is humbling for Tesla just like it is and should be for any manufacturer. Their designs for these models proved to be flawed.

That said picked up three more Jan 23 300 calls on the weakness.

All the best.

 

[lafrisbee]

will someone PLEASE do the math?
Someone with some spreadsheet talent....
The world knows "tesla was shutdown due to Covid for part of 2020." I've read it so many times in both pro and anti Tesla articles. At best I've seen the fact related as "shut down for two weeks" or "Part of the second quarter." Each and every time the event was not properly described. Either they leave out one Factory, or leave off days from some period, or don't get the date right in relation to when the factory actually shut down or they were just told to shut down but kept on a full capacity.
And it is something that needs to be quantified. And doing so in three ways. The Pro Tesla Numbers, as in we ceased production for 19% of our capacity for all our facilities in total but still achieved XXXXX. And the best neutral understanding, as in the production of Gigashanghai was this the last full week of production before being shut down due to covid, we were closed for XX days so this much production was lost, and on ramping back up the first week back we were only at XX% for a total of XX amount of missed production fron GigaShanghai. Then apply the same math to the other factories.
I can not be the only one that consistently sees how there has not been a real concrete analysis of the amount of production that was lost due to Covid shutdowns. And yet all articles that talk about things like the upcoming yearly performance are not truly describing what was achieved by Tesla without such quantitative (and perhaps qualitative?) numbers.
And it will be MOST relevant when discussing yearly production.
So could someone with the talent and interest please dive in? This has to be of real interest to you guys that crunch the numbers so hardcore.

 

[avoigt]

As long as the video data is blurring the faces of the pedestrians and the license plate numbers, Tesla may use the data however they would like to. Also people should be able to look up the terms and conditions of data usage of the recordings. These are the 2 things required to be done to be able to use video data

I've seen the report this morning. It's 10 complains but I disagree with the most part.

They don't have to blur the faces and plates to comply with the law and I believe their justification is faulty.

As a fall-back position, Tesla could of course, and easily do that if needed.

To give an example. A driver was blocking me intentionally on an Autobahn and I gave the video to the police which was very happy to have them and even asked if I have a video with the face of the driver.

No doubt after the Autopilot naming issue and the NCAP rating that the German industry would happily support any case against AP and that in particular after the beta version is showing how superior AP is.