Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[traxila]

Well, it was pretty common knowledge back then, after all...

View attachment 602648

This never happened.

Love the internet.

 

[Knightshade]

Now back to stonk or chairs or whatever non-amusing misword that is en vogue in the minds of a couple of posers....
BATTERIES.
Ya know.... Elon spent a lot of time telling all of us about batteries a few days back. And at the time I like so many others kept waiting for the little neat bow to be tied to the top of it. And it never was.
His whole talk was, We are going to make batteries, cheaper, and better, AND faster. AND a lot more of them.
And then he never connected the dots. In his mind he did. He had this big huge elephant right there, and he talked about it in terms of making batteries. It isn't storage. He's got that solved except for the weakest link. He didn't talk about cars. He has that pretty much where it should be except for THE BATTERIES.
He saw there was one problem. Only one problem. And Tesla has it solved..

...this seems like another bad usage of "solved"

Elon has said they're spending $ as fast as they possibly can and have it make any sense, and they're still not going to remotely be producing enough batteries to "solve" EVs for the world 10 years from now (let alone EVs plus storage plus all the other uses for batteries)


He gave the specific #s on BD for the vehicle part-

He said that roughly 10 TWh of battery production could transition the global fleet of cars to electric power, while 150 TWh would be required to shift global vehicles of all types to electric power.

Teslas 2030 goal for their own production is 3 TWh.

With plans to continue sourcing cells from other suppliers for years to come.

Tesla is clearly way ahead of everyone else at this point- and still won't be able to produce nearly enough batteries for the world 10 years from now even if they execute all their plans perfectly.

That's not really "solved"


Some other folks are gonna need to get with the program to get there.

 

[jerry33]

Well, it was pretty common knowledge back then, after all...

View attachment 602648

It turns out this was Exxon supported research to discredit the human caused global warming science they knew was coming. However, it was never on the cover of Time.

 

[ggr]

This is the late John...
(you know what they say about laughter...)

Thanks for the warmth and care. Turns out, if I del the acct I will del all my posts as I couldn't find Karen's writings either.
This is part of my digital footprint after I do pass. We all hope someday we saw part of the future, just like Elon, and maybe this is the only place we wrote it down.

Don't anyone else leave on my account. This is my issue and I happened to get in the crossfire I think.

Cheers!

First, apologies for any harshly worded messages you might have received from me as a moderator. As @Right_Said_Fred said, many of them we don't have any control over, but some we do, and it's possible I got you mixed up with someone else and assumed you should have known better.

Second, one of the big complaints we (as moderators) get is that people discover that they can't actually delete their accounts. (We can't delete them either. The forum admins are the only ones that can, and almost always won't.) Your posts are here to stay, as are Karen's.

 

[StealthP3D]

This never happened.

Love the internet.

To be clear, in the 1970's there were articles in the MSM quoting scientists who claimed the world was cooling and the biggest threat was an impending ice age. It turns out this was just a big oil funded ruse to confuse the public and reduce their trust in climate scientists so no action would be taken.

Turns out it worked (and is still working to a certain degree).

 

[ggr]

Semi-Mod: There's a perfectly good thread (indeed sub-forum) for environmental stuff, Energy, Environment, and Policy, which is definitely off-topic in this thread. Especially disinformation and followups would normally be deleted. But just for today, I think we mods are feeling gun-shy, and leaving in a lot of stuff that might normally get cleaned up. But that won't stop me asking that there be no more posts about the environment unless they're relevant to Tesla's place in the hearts and minds of investors. --ggr

 

[lafrisbee]

I can sorta remember the youtube video, and I thought I might have seen it on a less reputable site so I didn't dwell on it. But now it is posted on....Tesla 3.25 Million-Mile Battery Could Already Be Here & Would Reach Far Beyond Cars. And it seems like the 3,000,000 mile battery is really a thing.
FSD Beta, and now THIS?
Seems like you could make a one time purchase of a battery and then just drop it into your "new" car? ..for the rest of your life. And also be able to go completely off grid just based on having ONE battery for both car and home if you work out the logistics. Back when the Cybertrck was revealed I quickly thought that it could be a big part of my life of living in the woods. No need to buy an expensive battery array for the small efficient cabin just make sure I have some solar panels and "half a tank" when I go home at night. If I stay in the woods just charge the battery in the Cyber for the night's needs. And now this? That would eliminate any concern about degrading the battery for like forever.
This makes TSLA just a little more attractive.

 

[SOULPEDL]

First, apologies for any harshly worded messages you might have received from me as a moderator. As @Right_Said_Fred said, many of them we don't have any control over, but some we do, and it's possible I got you mixed up with someone else and assumed you should have known better.

Second, one of the big complaints we (as moderators) get is that people discover that they can't actually delete their accounts. (We can't delete them either. The forum admins are the only ones that can, and almost always won't.) Your posts are here to stay, as are Karen's.

Thanks for clarifying. Not a divorce (we have kids), so just backing way off.
I was getting the impression that my post were the last straw, for a while now. OK for others until I chimed in.
Other times, yup, I couldn't believe what I started. Sorry to all Mods, my bad.

See ya around...

 

[mickificki]

https://twitter.com/freshjiva/status/1320831305614041091?s=20

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

https://twitter.com/freshjiva/status/1320831305614041091?s=20
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Nice to see the reason for the margin decline in Energy.

 

[Knightshade]

I can sorta remember the youtube video, and I thought I might have seen it on a less reputable site so I didn't dwell on it. But now it is posted on....Tesla 3.25 Million-Mile Battery Could Already Be Here & Would Reach Far Beyond Cars. And it seems like the 3,000,000 mile battery is really a thing.
FSD Beta, and now THIS?

The originals were already good for 300k, which is longer than most cars remain in service.

This whole topic was exhaustively hashed in here in the weeks up to battery day.... ONE MILLION MILE BATTERY is a great marketing gimmick but nobody really cares. Nobody keeps cars that long- even a 300k car is usually on its third owner.

Evidence includes the fact CATL has had ONE MILLION MILE batteries and 0 customers for them. That alone doesn't matter much.

The BD breakthroughs matter because of cost, density, and scalability.

Seems like you could make a one time purchase of a battery and then just drop it into your "new" car? ..for the rest of your life.

Not really.

Especially when Teslas next-gen battery packs will be structurally integral to the car itself and not intended to be swappable.

And also be able to go completely off grid just based on having ONE battery for both car and home if you work out the logistics.

...so the home would be powerless when you go somewhere? Also where are you charging the car if you don't have power at home from any other source?

Even Elon dismissed V2G as having significant value on battery day when specifically asked- just buy a powerwall- vastly cheaper and your fridge doesn't die when you need to leave home- and charge it with solar if you want to be off-grid.

Not only that- stationary batteries will use different chemistries and can be a lot cheaper because they don't need to be nearly as light or compact or hit the same charge/discharge rate targets as the car.



Overall I'd encourage you to watch a replay of Battery day as you appear to have drawn a number of conclusions in this post and the last one directly counter to what Elon actually told us.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Paging @Artful Dodger

From Tesla's 10-Q:

Such sales were completed by September 4, 2020 and settled by September 9, 2020, with the sale of 11,141,562 shares of common stock resulting in gross proceeds of $5.00 billion

That would be an average share price of $448.77 on the cap raise. I believe you had called a mid-400s average?

Indeed, I predicted on Aug 12 that Tesla would issue 2.23M x 5 shares, or 11.15M (dividend adjusted). That's within the rounding error for 3 digit precision of the actual amount issued eff. Sep 9th (11.142M shares).

Working back from $5.00B, that's also a prediction of $448.43 ASP for the entire Cap raise, or within 26 cents per share.

Fun Fact*: 3-digit precision turns out to have been a better predictor of the event than full precision, which would have predicted 11,945,253 shares would be purchased in this event.

Point is, this ENTIRE excercise was based on one simple underlying principle: an amount equal to the ENTIRETY of all outstanding short short shares (as of Jul 31, 2020) would have to be repurchased by Market Makers and Hedge Funds due to the nature of a Share Dividend, a fraud which COULD NOT be hidden from beneficial shareholders (customers of the Brokers).

Looks like this little excercise provided evidence which tends to support that theory.

Cheers!

*Know your man. Prediction is all about getting inside the head of the players in this game... The GOAL all along was $5.00B for the Cap Raise. Now we find out in the Q3 10-Q that Tesla plans to increase Capital spending by about $5B (go figure).

 

[EVortex]

First, apologies for any harshly worded messages you might have received from me as a moderator. As @Right_Said_Fred said, many of them we don't have any control over, but some we do, and it's possible I got you mixed up with someone else and assumed you should have known better.

Second, one of the big complaints we (as moderators) get is that people discover that they can't actually delete their accounts. (We can't delete them either. The forum admins are the only ones that can, and almost always won't.) Your posts are here to stay, as are Karen's.

My wife has been a Mod and Admin on a forum she has been on for years. It’s a tough and thankless job and should be respected and appreciated. In her experience, the least painful approach for all has been to make sure policies are published, reiterated, and enforced consistently and fairly so that no one feels singled-out when actions are taken.

Sometimes, even with that, misunderstandings and abuses occur. This is stressful and troubling for her when it happens and she always strives to find fair resolutions for all. I feel for the Mods!

I watched this forum for a while, even before I joined TMC in early 2018 and finally participated to some extent last summer. As a former senior exec in insurance and other public companies, board member, serial entrepreneur, MBA instructor, investor, Tesla enthusiast and owner, I thought I might have at least a few things to contribute from time to time. And, of course, the best source for keeping up with and learning more about TSLA.

I felt like I struggled to fit in and tried to make jokes and have fun while attempting to connect. At the time, there was little or no moderation so it appeared to be ok and I enjoyed reading and commenting from time to time. Moderation seemed to change at some point - perhaps an attempt to have more enforcement, but it was confusing to me so I went back to lurking mode so as not to cause problems or get in trouble. I recently started posting a few things again, but I have still felt somewhat apprehensive.

The purpose of this post is to acknowledge and appreciate the Mods, but also to present a perspective from a lowly participant. I hope this helps, but if not then please allow me to apologize now because this is the best forum on TMC and I have learned so much here.

 

[SO16]

I have been annoyed with the mods a couple times. But, I’m grateful they are here. This is one of the very FEW locations on the Internet that talks overall quite objectively about Tesla without being swarmed by trolls. It’s also one of the few locations that seems to attract successful and “impressive” people.

For people that are turned off by the mods, just spend some time in other comment areas on articles, Twitter or even Reddit. Rarely can I go 3 posts without some hater just crapping on Tesla for no good reason or some moronic rant.

So if someone gets annoyed by a mod, just take a deep breath and realize they are just trying to keep this board as one of the better boards on the Internet. Try not to take it personal. I have a couple times but in the end, the mods were right.

 

[Silentk]

Very positive take on FSD:

https://www.thestreet.com/.amp-tech/tech/news/teslajdm102620?

“Tesla is rolling out a full self-driving mode this week, and although software bugs are to be expected, the feature should be the most important automotive development in a generation”

 

[ammulder]

Even Elon dismissed V2G as having significant value on battery day when specifically asked- just buy a powerwall- vastly cheaper and your fridge doesn't die when you need to leave home- and charge it with solar if you want to be off-grid.

I think there are two different uses here.

If you have solar, you probably want a powerwall, as it will let you timeshift solar-generated energy and operate your fridge when your car isn't there and all that. So V2G seems a bit redundant.

If you don't have solar, V2G would be great in place of a powerwall or gas generator. Around here, we'd use it at most once a year, and when the weather is that bad the car is home, so it would work. I can't be bothered to pay for and maintain a generator or buy a standalone powerwall just for the few hours to a day, once a year or two, but since I have a Tesla I would love to be able to bridge that occasional gap by plugging in my car. (I recognize that other geographies have more serious concerns about power outages, of course.)

In practice, I'm on the waiting list for a solar roof with powerwalls, so hopefully this won't be a lasting concern. But I still wouldn't completely dismiss V2G for those without solar.

Anybody know what kind of gas generator you can get for the price of a powerwall? Wondering how competitive they are if you don't care about the noise, fuel, maintenance, environmental issues, and etc. LOL, that doesn't make gas sound very attractive, but I know there are a number of them on houses nearby.

 

[Curt Renz]

The Street - today: Tesla Breakthrough: Going Full Auto | Markman on Tech

 

[Singuy]

The originals were already good for 300k, which is longer than most cars remain in service.

This whole topic was exhaustively hashed in here in the weeks up to battery day.... ONE MILLION MILE BATTERY is a great marketing gimmick but nobody really cares. Nobody keeps cars that long- even a 300k car is usually on its third owner.

Evidence includes the fact CATL has had ONE MILLION MILE batteries and 0 customers for them. That alone doesn't matter much.

The BD breakthroughs matter because of cost, density, and scalability.





Not really.

Especially when Teslas next-gen battery packs will be structurally integral to the car itself and not intended to be swappable.





...so the home would be powerless when you go somewhere? Also where are you charging the car if you don't have power at home from any other source?

Even Elon dismissed V2G as having significant value on battery day when specifically asked- just buy a powerwall- vastly cheaper and your fridge doesn't die when you need to leave home- and charge it with solar if you want to be off-grid.

Not only that- stationary batteries will use different chemistries and can be a lot cheaper because they don't need to be nearly as light or compact or hit the same charge/discharge rate targets as the car.



Overall I'd encourage you to watch a replay of Battery day as you appear to have drawn a number of conclusions in this post and the last one directly counter to what Elon actually told us.

Elon dismissed V2G not because it's useless, but it's because there's a product that V2G osboune/replace which is their powerwall. He is always mindful about sales, and he will not announce anything that will destroy his current products. Also I see a powerwall to be more predictable for the autobidder than a car.

They didn't dismiss V2G completely, and said all future cars will have V2G. It may be tied to the robotaxi fleet as they go onto the autobidder software during down time via snake charger. Everything will be controlled autonomously and be completely integrated into Tesla network.

 

[Prunesquallor]

...
For people that are turned off by the mods, just spend some time in other comment areas on articles, Twitter or even Reddit. Rarely can I go 3 posts without some hater just crapping on Tesla for no good reason or some moronic rant.
...

No kidding. I have a *very* limited footprint on Twitter and it still makes my skin crawl. There are folks there that have more tolerance than I do that are a good source for breaking news, and of course Elon’s tweets.

I look on this thread as a safe haven that can have access to that info without being immersed in the cesspool. Thanks to the mods.

 

[EVortex]

The Street - today: Tesla Breakthrough: Going Full Auto | Markman on Tech

Positive/fair article on the understated value of the FSD beta and future updates. I liked everything except the last line where it said to buy TSLA at pullback to $350. Why wait - buy now, we may not see $350 again until some future split.