Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Q3 2029 10-Q pg.26 | 2018 CEO Performance Award | Implications for a future fifth (5th) tranche unlocked in 2020 Q4:

"In October 2020, the market capitalization milestone of $250.0 billion was achieved, and the operational milestone of annualized Adjusted EBITDA of $4.5 billion will be achieved as of the date of issuance of this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q.

"Accordingly, the fourth tranche of the 2018 CEO Performance Award will vest upon certification by the Board of Directors that such milestones have been achieved.

"Therefore, we expect that the remaining unamortized expense of $122 million associated with the fourth market capitalization milestone period, which was previously expected to be recognized ratably in future quarters through the third quarter of 2023 as determined on the grant date, will be accelerated into the fourth quarter of 2020."​

Heads up: the Market Cap requirement for the Fifth Tranche ($300B Mkt Cap) currently is tracking to be achieved on, or about, Nov 17, 2020 (given SP during the intervening days averages today's Close of $420.28).

Note: This date is necessarily approximate since it depends upon the exact number of shares used to calculate Mkt Cap, and the effective date for those shares.

Note2: the estimated date above includes 11.142M shares issued effective Sep 9, 2020 for the $5B Cap Raise announced on Sep 1, 2020.

Cheers!

 

[Boomer19]

I have been annoyed with the mods a couple times. But, I’m grateful they are here. This is one of the very FEW locations on the Internet that talks overall quite objectively about Tesla without being swarmed by trolls. It’s also one of the few locations that seems to attract successful and “impressive” people.

For people that are turned off by the mods, just spend some time in other comment areas on articles, Twitter or even Reddit. Rarely can I go 3 posts without some hater just crapping on Tesla for no good reason or some moronic rant.

So if someone gets annoyed by a mod, just take a deep breath and realize they are just trying to keep this board as one of the better boards on the Internet. Try not to take it personal. I have a couple times but in the end, the mods were right.

yep, as far as trolls.

many of the tmc trolls (the birds) must have taken the great migration to other, more easily infiltrated forums...or had been immobilized via atomic wedgie of two size too small short shorts by ‘big bully’ elon
(or de-beaked / de-billed, are they words?)

either way, probably not gone forever. but one battle at a time.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I think there are two different uses here.

If you have solar, you probably want a powerwall, as it will let you timeshift solar-generated energy and operate your fridge when your car isn't there and all that. So V2G seems a bit redundant.

If you don't have solar, V2G would be great in place of a powerwall or gas generator. Around here, we'd use it at most once a year, and when the weather is that bad the car is home, so it would work. I can't be bothered to pay for and maintain a generator or buy a standalone powerwall just for the few hours to a day, once a year or two, but since I have a Tesla I would love to be able to bridge that occasional gap by plugging in my car. (I recognize that other geographies have more serious concerns about power outages, of course.)

In practice, I'm on the waiting list for a solar roof with powerwalls, so hopefully this won't be a lasting concern. But I still wouldn't completely dismiss V2G for those without solar.

Anybody know what kind of gas generator you can get for the price of a powerwall? Wondering how competitive they are if you don't care about the noise, fuel, maintenance, environmental issues, and etc. LOL, that doesn't make gas sound very attractive, but I know there are a number of them on houses nearby.

I have a “whole house” (2500 ft2) Generac 20 kW NG generator for emergency use only (thus environmental impact is minuscule ). As I recall, full installation including all licensing was around $12K. Even with several nasty tropical storms, we have depended on it very infrequently over the last eight years. However, it HAS allowed us to rethink our evacuation strategy for all but the worst hurricanes with the associated peace of mind.

As I recall, I recently did the calculations for equivalent PowerWall for ~3 days of whole house power (AC is not optional), and the $$ amount was not pretty. In our situation, we need to be prepared for a week or longer with no power after a hurricane, and solar was not an option back then. The calculus may be different now, but the Generac is a sunk cost.

From the environmental impact, our home power is 100% renewable straight from the grid with free power at night (guess when I charge the M3?) So I feel OK with our solution.

 

[BornToFly]

I think there are two different uses here.

If you have solar, you probably want a powerwall, as it will let you timeshift solar-generated energy and operate your fridge when your car isn't there and all that. So V2G seems a bit redundant.

If you don't have solar, V2G would be great in place of a powerwall or gas generator. Around here, we'd use it at most once a year, and when the weather is that bad the car is home, so it would work. I can't be bothered to pay for and maintain a generator or buy a standalone powerwall just for the few hours to a day, once a year or two, but since I have a Tesla I would love to be able to bridge that occasional gap by plugging in my car. (I recognize that other geographies have more serious concerns about power outages, of course.)

In practice, I'm on the waiting list for a solar roof with powerwalls, so hopefully this won't be a lasting concern. But I still wouldn't completely dismiss V2G for those without solar.

Anybody know what kind of gas generator you can get for the price of a powerwall? Wondering how competitive they are if you don't care about the noise, fuel, maintenance, environmental issues, and etc. LOL, that doesn't make gas sound very attractive, but I know there are a number of them on houses nearby.

Our generator runs on natural gas. It was $9000 for 20kw unit. The company comes once a year for oil change and maintenance. It turns itself on automatically once a week for ten minutes to maintain itself. I would love a power wall, but with snow on our solar panels two months of the year, the generator is better for us. A recent storm with hurricane winds took power out for some of my friends for 4-5 days. With good solar year round, I would get a power wall.

 

[MC3OZ]

Would be nice to move low volume cars to the original paint line and provide additional colors and possibly add additional coat for SX and Roadster.

I did read somewhere this reopened paint shop will be used for Model S/X & Roadster.

That allows the existing paint shop to paint more Model 3/Y.

The might squeeze the Roadster into Fremont, but otherwise it is close to maxed out, capex spend at Austin is probably more efficient.

Manufacturing is hard, there are complex dependencies and it always takes time to ramp.

The Semi is a case in point, I think they can make it with 2170s or 4680s, but in both cases they don't have the cells, probably because Model Y production is a higher priority.

I did think they might make the Semi with 4680s from Fremont, in fact I thought they might use a tent in Austin as a temporary Semi GA. In hindsight this temporary GA could be anywhere, Austin isn't a great location.

The east side building at Austin is probably Model Y the west side Cybertruck and possibly Semi.
If the Semi was definitely being built at Austin, that probably would have been listed.

I'm sure there is a plan for the Semi, we will find out when Tesla is ready to announce it..
I don't think it needs a new factory, but it does need cells and it will probably be located close to an existing factory..

 

[RCFLMA]

I think there are two different uses here.

...

Anybody know what kind of gas generator you can get for the price of a powerwall? Wondering how competitive they are if you don't care about the noise, fuel, maintenance, environmental issues, and etc. LOL, that doesn't make gas sound very attractive, but I know there are a number of them on houses nearby.

About 10 years ago, we installed a natural gas generator after a massive early-season New England snowstorm left us without power for 8 days. That was an unusual storm; we probably average less than 10 hours/yr of outage. The generator was around $5500 all in, ordered and installed through Home Depot. Our annual electricity consumption is around 20,000 kWh. The generator would handle almost all of the house power other than central air conditioning. Here in New England, you can die from lack of heat but not from lack of AC. We already had natural gas for heating. Cost for gas and maintenance is less than $500/yr. System automatically cuts over when there is 10 seconds or so of power loss. It is a bit noisy, but it hides nicely behind bushes.

We are putting in Tesla solar now (16.32 MW, 48 panels, $32k pre 26% tax credit). Tesla recommended 4 Powerwalls, which would add an additional $16k. I decided to skip the Powerwalls and keep the gas generator and the $16k. The gas generator was relatively inexpensive and could run for days if needed.

 

[Boomer19]

My wife has been a Mod and Admin on a forum she has been on for years. It’s a tough and thankless job and should be respected and appreciated. In her experience, the least painful approach for all has been to make sure policies are published, reiterated, and enforced consistently and fairly so that no one feels singled-out when actions are taken.

Sometimes, even with that, misunderstandings and abuses occur. This is stressful and troubling for her when it happens and she always strives to find fair resolutions for all. I feel for the Mods!

I watched this forum for a while, even before I joined TMC in early 2018 and finally participated to some extent last summer. As a former senior exec in insurance and other public companies, board member, serial entrepreneur, MBA instructor, investor, Tesla enthusiast and owner, I thought I might have at least a few things to contribute from time to time. And, of course, the best source for keeping up with and learning more about TSLA.

I felt like I struggled to fit in and tried to make jokes and have fun while attempting to connect. At the time, there was little or no moderation so it appeared to be ok and I enjoyed reading and commenting from time to time. Moderation seemed to change at some point - perhaps an attempt to have more enforcement, but it was confusing to me so I went back to lurking mode so as not to cause problems or get in trouble. I recently started posting a few things again, but I have still felt somewhat apprehensive.

The purpose of this post is to acknowledge and appreciate the Mods, but also to present a perspective from a lowly participant. I hope this helps, but if not then please allow me to apologize now because this is the best forum on TMC and I have learned so much here.

similar. i lurked for a while as my friend, who was in tesla long before me, had pointed out facts learned here. i watched and learned, and eventually started an acct.
the user base has grown with the expansion of tesla over the years (or at least it seems so). also many have left for varying reasons.

i notice that some users that used to jam back and forth with me in posts no longer do, but that’s ok. it’s hard to determine why. the thread is massive compared to what it used to be, so it’s much harder to have that smaller community type engagement.
or, maybe that’s just what i’m telling myself ...maybe its really because they think i’m an idiot!

but who knows - who cares

of course we all want to be ‘liked’ and agreed with.
but it’s not a popularity contest.
i’ve nothing to prove
it’s not personal, it’s the inter-webs!
you’re allowed to be a bit off-kilter
just be nice (mostly) to everyone and it works

if you’re going to complain, no use in singling out any one node!

direct it at MSM...or the ‘black hand’ of the street
they are a nice scapegoat for any given bad day

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Mon, Oct 26, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "TSLA Mkt Cap Tops $400B on 10-Q Shares"

Traded: $11,797,942,433.47 ($11.80B)
Volume: 28,267,448
VWAP: $417.37

Close: $420.28 / VWAP: 100.70%
TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP
Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM $392.348B / $185.209B = 211.84%​

CEO Comp. Status:

TSLA 1-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $406.59 B
TSLA 6-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $281.44 B
Nota Bene: Mkt Cap for 5th tranche now tracking ~Nov 17, 2020​

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 54.2% (54th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short/Total Volume = 38.6% (45th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 1.31% of Short Volume (52th Percentile Rank)​

Comment: "You can't stop S3XY, don't you know that?!"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[Causalien]

The person you responded to expects a $20T valuation for TSLA if legit FSD is achieved.

20 Trillion valuation means.
This forum will have the highest concentration of billionaires per user in the world. We legit need a country and create a secret army then.

 

[wtlloyd]

Just a note to all - I was driving home today, passing through the Interlaken Park neighborhood of Seattle. I was startled by an oncoming Amazon Rivian truck. Unmistakable appearance. I was tempted to turn around and follow them to see if they stopped...but didn't.
So I have no idea if they were making trial delivery routes or just driving more or less randomly. But they are out there!

 

[Mokuzai]

20 Trillion valuation means.
This forum will have the highest concentration of billionaires per user in the world. We legit need a country and create a secret army then.

10 figures? I'd be less than 20% of that at that valuation...maybe I'm not as bullish as I thought!

 

[Causalien]

10 figures? I'd be less than 20% of that at that valuation...maybe I'm not as bullish as I thought!

TT007 will have bankrupted all his brokers if this happens.

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

20 Trillion valuation means.
This forum will have the highest concentration of billionaires per user in the world. We legit need a country and create a secret army then.

We're going to be the digital town of Quincy, Florida.

I'm in it for HODL, I gotta stop looking at the SP everyday.

 

[Artful Dodger]

On Aug 14, 2020:

I suspect over the next couple of weeks we are about to find out how big this pool of non-existent shares really was. If it was huge we could see some crazy prices in the short-term. Like approaching $3000 or more (depending upon how prevalent this problem was).

During the 'naked-short-squeeze' event, the 1-min avg SP reported by NASDAQ reached the equivalent of $2,567.95 (on a pre-split basis). This occurred at around 08:11 AM on Sep 1, 2020 just moments after Tesla announced the 5:1 Share Dividend.

No doubt that the SP was headed to $3K (pre-split) until Tesla stepped up and scooped up $5B of share offering. Those were the 'droids we're lookin' for...

Those free billions are now being put to good use to build out Tesla's manufacturing capacity to roughly 4M units/year by the end of 2022.

Life is good.

Cheers!

 

[Knightshade]

Elon dismissed V2G not because it's useless, but it's because there's a product that V2G osboune/replace which is their powerwall. He is always mindful about sales, and he will not announce anything that will destroy his current products. Also I see a powerwall to be more predictable for the autobidder than a car.

They didn't dismiss V2G completely, and said all future cars will have V2G.

Where/when did he say that all future cars would have it? Because on BD he seemed to say exactly the opposite- reiterating that it sounds better than the reality and that it's better to keep the car and the grid-tied storage separate.

He noted they DID have it on the original roadster- and nobody used it. Then on BD mentioned:

Vehicle-to-grid sounds good, but I think actually has a much lower utility than people think. I think it’s actually going to be better for people’s freedom of action to have a Powerwall and a car.

It will be problematic if you get to the morning, and instead of being charged, (the car) has discharged. It will be better to have a Powerwall and a car operating separately. Then everything works.

 

[Singuy]

Where/when did he say that all future cars would have it? Because on BD he seemed to say exactly the opposite- reiterating that it sounds better than the reality and that it's better to keep the car and the grid-tied storage separate.

He noted they DID have it on the original roadster- and nobody used it. Then on BD mentioned:

Exactly 2:22:30 from battery day video.

"In the future, all version of our vehicles will at least do bi-directional power flow for the purpose of energy market participation."

 

[Knightshade]

Exactly 2:22:30 from battery day video.

"In the future, all version of our vehicles will at least do bi-directional power flow for the purpose of energy market participation."

Ah... not Elon... that's Drew Baglino who said it... and yes energy market participation- not for powering your own home.


Drew said it right AFTER saying this:


"future generations of power electronics will be able to do this more or less anywhere from an energy participation perspective- but from a backing up the house....it just so happens that he way the North American connectors are on all the cars in north america it doesn't...actually support powering your home so you'd need additional hardware to do that"

Then after your own quote he reiterates powerwalls make a ton more sense for that task- and Elon reiterates he doubts many people would actually use the feature, and retells the story about how nobody used it when the Roadster did it.

 

[Singuy]

Ah... not Elon... that's Drew Baglino who said it... and yes energy market participation- not for powering your own home.


Drew said it right AFTER saying this:


"future generations of power electronics will be able to do this more or less anywhere from an energy participation perspective- but from a backing up the house....it just so happens that he way the North American connectors are on all the cars in north america it doesn't...actually support powering your home so you'd need additional hardware to do that"

Then after your own quote he reiterates powerwalls make a ton more sense for that task- and Elon reiterates he doubts many people would actually use the feature, and retells the story about how nobody used it when the Roadster did it.

Uh yes, Drew looked at Elon when he said it and essentially "let the cat out of the bag" but put in so many caveats to not osbourne powerwall sales. Just need to read between the lines. The take away is..yes to V2G, but not really so keep buying our powerwalls.

Btw, every bi-directional power flow type of equipment requires extra hardware to power your own house for 220v+ applications like central heating. That's like saying "you need extra hardware like an inverter to collect solar energy". They just made it sound like it's such a hassle while a powerwall is so much easier.

 

[Prunesquallor]

On Aug 14, 2020:


During the 'naked-short-squeeze' event, the 1-min avg SP reported by NASDAQ reached the equivalent of $2,567.95 (on a pre-split basis). This occurred at around 08:11 AM on Sep 1, 2020 just moments after Tesla announced the 5:1 Share Dividend.

View attachment 602759

No doubt that the SP was headed to $3K (pre-split) until Tesla stepped up and scooped up $5B of MMs/Hedgies ill-gotten gains. Those were the 'droids we're lookin' for...

Those free billions are now being put to good use to build out Tesla's manufacturing capacity to roughly 4M units/year by the end of 2022.

Life is good.

Cheers!

I wonder what celebratory ritual Musk/BoD perform every time they make their competitors/enemies pay for a new factory.

edit: As I said earlier, I’m betting there's a similar strategy just waiting for the S&P infinity squeeze.

 

[LN1_Casey]

I wonder what celebratory ritual Musk/BoD perform every time they make their competitors/enemies pay for a new factory.

Maracas.