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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

lafrisbee

Active Member
Dec 13, 2019
1,688
5,452
Indialantic FL
How is it suppose to be proven if all the other companies are not using the same metrics? Tesla will be like "here is 100 billion miles across the world". The other company is like "here is 100 million miles across 10 square miles".

It's like comparing saturn to porn stars.
comparisons will be to humans...but the second to market will have to surpass the metric (of comparison to humans) of the first to market. BUT it will have to match or beat where the first is at the time of approval.
 
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Mo City

Active Member
Jul 17, 2016
1,910
11,670
near Houston
here is some hard core insight....
The first company that gets approval for real level 5 autonomy will have to be "X" times better than the average human driver by statistically proving they are.
The next Company to get approval by a government will have to be "Just as good as" the current version of the FIRST company is at the time they want approval.
Logic won't be "We are better than a human by this much." It will be "we are as good as the other guy." If it isn't then it is an inferior product.
Now how on Earth is anyone going to be able to keep pace with the first guy, especially if it is Elon?
It makes an even stronger case for, "Whoever gets to level 5 first wins."
IMO, the much bigger point is FSD capability is built in every single Tesla while the distribution for others will be very limited for several years. That's why I've said many times being first to autonomy represents one bullet for competitors but is a nuclear bomb for Tesla.

If the FSD beta (1) continues improving enough for a general release in a few months, (2) the sky doesn't fall when that happens and (3) Dojo starts the march of 9s in 12-18 months, may as well turn out the lights.
 

Prunesquallor

His cardinal virtue? An undamaged brain.
Dec 19, 2018
3,064
31,778
Houston/Galveston
IMO, the much bigger point is FSD capability is built in every single Tesla while the distribution for others will be very limited for several years.
...

What's he problem? Not enough Proton Packs?

5DC1F2BF-14F7-4562-90E0-101215BFAE29.jpeg
 

Knightshade

Well-Known Member
Jul 31, 2017
11,654
15,742
NC
here is some hard core insight....
The first company that gets approval for real level 5 autonomy will have to be "X" times better than the average human driver by statistically proving they are.
The next Company to get approval by a government will have to be "Just as good as" the current version of the FIRST company is at the time they want approval.
Logic won't be "We are better than a human by this much." It will be "we are as good as the other guy." If it isn't then it is an inferior product.
Now how on Earth is anyone going to be able to keep pace with the first guy, especially if it is Elon?
It makes an even stronger case for, "Whoever gets to level 5 first wins."



Again- L5 is legal right now in many US states.

Today.

With no extra "approval" of any kind needed.

It's legal right now In your own (listed) state of Florida in fact.

The only reason it's not deployed is nobody actually has a working L5 car yet.


The idea that the only reason we don't have self-driving cars on the road today is someone is "waiting for the regulators to allow it" is simply fiction.
 

Hock1

Member
Jan 21, 2017
679
6,362
Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida
That's the biggest puzzle to me.... I can theorize they made more money than god playing the covid virus downturn, but just how greedy can they be to keep working the maxpain game. And they've done it for a number of times for billions of dollars at a time.
Greed is a state of being. It is not an investment strategy that is tossed aside once one makes "enough" money.
 

joh01652

Supporting Member
Jun 29, 2019
396
5,642
Teslaland
Yes, top-notch manipulation today, the one there 15 minutes before close, so firkin' obvious...

The pattern seems to be, a run of gentle accumulation, then the moment it gets too hot, dump a "big" sell order.

Indeed, how can money be made like that, surely the shares are slowly being transferred to willing buyers at stable prices?

View attachment 607495

And the larger pattern that is now occurring is that THEY have finally managed to bend the BBs and 50-day-moving-average down. I wonder if THEY are engineering something? I wonder for how long and for how low THEY can bend the SP down? Can S&P demand a trend down so that they can get a more agreeable price?
 

TheTalkingMule

Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Oct 20, 2012
6,817
24,611
Philadelphia, PA
And the larger pattern that is now occurring is that THEY have finally managed to bend the BBs and 50-day-moving-average down. I wonder if THEY are engineering something? I wonder for how long and for how low THEY can bend the SP down? Can S&P demand a trend down so that they can get a more agreeable price?
S&P doesn't care much about the price, though they may act in the interest of their largest customers just by habit.

Volatility certainly feels like it's being purposely squashed, but there's plenty of other logical factors capping things(like a $400B valuation). As always it's probably a combination of natural and manipulative causes.

Regardless, TSLA in the grand scheme will do what it wants. I know nothing about charts and technical analysis trading, but to me the TSLA chart now looks "coiled", either to pop or drop. Since it's unlikely to drop a lot, I think our next logical move is pop. Maybe on 4Q deliveries and 100% growth guidance.

Imagine what happens to our current chart if inclusion happens Friday at close. We'd literally almost double as everyone scrambles to buy, cover, and hedge all these calls. Stimulus followed by inclusion and I think you get that kind of squeeze.

A rational person would buy LEAPs and sell on the volatility when it comes I guess. Not advice.
 

Sudre

Active Member
May 30, 2012
1,044
6,667
How is it suppose to be proven if all the other companies are not using the same metrics? Tesla will be like "here is 100 billion miles across the world". The other company is like "here is 100 million miles across 10 square miles".

It's like comparing saturn to porn stars.
And don't forget that Consumer Regrets will then give GM 10 out of 10 because their Level 5 system keeps an eye on the driver making sure they are engaged. Tesla will get a 5 because they are not watching the drive... on the LEVEL 5 SYSTEM.... yes I know level 5 means no driver.

It's not only about equal comparison to quality miles. You will be able to drop a Tesla vehicle on any PLANET and it will drive itself safely to given coordinates but.... here on Earth, at least in the US, the approved company will be the one that bought the right politicians. Maybe I am just getting too jaded with our political system.
 

TheTalkingMule

Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Oct 20, 2012
6,817
24,611
Philadelphia, PA
It's not only about equal comparison to quality miles. You will be able to drop a Tesla vehicle on any PLANET and it will drive itself safely to given coordinates but.... here on Earth, at least in the US, the approved company will be the one that bought the right politicians. Maybe I am just getting too jaded with our political system.
We're moving past that phase thank god. Tesla will get halfway through beta and have something no competition will be able to touch for years. Plenty will have to give in and start licensing from Tesla. Hard to spin that when it's actually available and happening in the marketplace.
 
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Bet TSLA

Active Member
Dec 8, 2014
2,829
10,376
Cupertino, CA
And the larger pattern that is now occurring is that THEY have finally managed to bend the BBs and 50-day-moving-average down. I wonder if THEY are engineering something? I wonder for how long and for how low THEY can bend the SP down? Can S&P demand a trend down so that they can get a more agreeable price?
These constant conspiracy theories are truly tiresome.
 

Mo City

Active Member
Jul 17, 2016
1,910
11,670
near Houston

Monster Q4 incoming.
From 145K in Q3, he sees (1) a 33K increase of MIC Model 3 and (2) a 20K jump in Fremont Model Y.

(1) There was a huge weekly production increase of MIC M3 during September prior to a 10-day shutdown at the end of the month. The weekly rate increased again in October and no shutdown is anticipated in Q4.

(2) The Q4 increase of Fremont MY needs no explanation.

I'm curious to see Troy's revised predictions for Q4 which should be on Twitter within a week.

If Q4 2020 is 200K, it's pretty obvious 1M for 2021 is in reach as MIC MY begins ramping in January followed by MIG MY sometime in Q2. Austin should begin deliveries late in the year.
 

Artful Dodger

"Ducimus, lit"
Aug 9, 2018
8,737
108,828
Canada
After-action Report: Wed, Nov 11, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "Little Moves on Historic Low Volume Day"

Traded: $7,212,438,445.19 ($7.21B)
Volume: 17,359,360
VWAP: $415.48

Close: $417.13 / VWAP: 100.40%
TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP
Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM $395.398B / 196.738B = 200.98%

Note: Yahoo Finance updated TSLA Mkt Cap for shares issued Sep 9th (per 10-Q)
CEO Comp. Status:

TSLA 1-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $400.99B
TSLA 6-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $304.02B
Nota Bene: Mkt Cap for 5th tranche ($300B) likely achieved Nov 09, 2020

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 49.7% (49th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short / Total Volume = 55.8% (54th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 0.42% of Short Volume (44th Percentile Rank)​

TSLA - SUMMARY TABLE - 2020-11-11.png


Comment: "This is what 'capping' looks like as NDX rebounds"

QOTD: @vikings123 "Wall street doesn't care about batteries or FSD or P&D or Earnings"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!
 
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