Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FS_FRA]

I planned to round off this post with a rough summary translation of the German Wikipedia entry for Betriebsrat, but @FS_FRA bet me to it.

I think we did a good joint effort here. Your examples are very much in line with my experience in Gemany over the past 20 years.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Interesting tweet from Gary Black:

https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1326846192479776768

$TSLA ‘s actual FY’22 P/E of 48x is now 1.0x it’s 5-yr growth rate of 50%, making it the cheapest of all megacap growth stocks. $AAPL trades at 2.7x PEG. The analysts keep saying TSLA is overvalued because they 1/ don’t look forward and 2/ don’t compare P/E-to- growth. $tslaq

+ a table comparing to other tech companies.

 

[oldTAVguy]

That's not going to happen. Rob is the pro here - the brokerage analysts are just doing their master's bidding.

The pimps jobs are secure!

Analcysts are not the pimps, they are on the "other" side of the business, if you catch my drift. The companies they work for are the pimps.

 

[saniflash]

The companies they work for are the pimps.

which makes them, technically, the ...?

 

[OrthoSurg]

Feels like we never gonna get rid of the near $420 dollar range

Wondering if it will take FSD with robotaxis to get us out out of there and bring fresh new money from big financials

 

[kanweg]

So many talk about Tesla licensing technology to other automakers, However, the day any OEM announces that they are using Tesla Battery/Autonomous tech, that's the day they loose all their brand loyals to Tesla. People will instead simply just buy Tesla.

I don’t think so for several reasons. For a significant portion of the population, the car they own is more than a means to go from A to B. So, they like a particular brand, or the aura (or lack thereof) that comes with the brand. If there are lots of Tesla’s , many people want to have something different, even if it is not as good.
A second reason is that it creates diversity. A couple of buttons more could persuade people to buy something else. Or a luxury feature, such as a steering wheel? I bet a company that sells an EV with leather seats will have customers.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

In Texas Randy's latest video show that workers has started clearing a new area on the other side of the motorway - in the south west corner closest to the airport. What will they build there?

The new development is shown from around 19 mins:

You beat me to it! With up to 4 videos a day for Gigafactory Austin I don't post every one, just those showing major progress.

In the last few days there has been (as well as the new clearing):
1. continued leveling of the switchyard area
2. new leveling to the east, near the contractors cabins
3. demolition of the isolated house, continued pre-demolition work on the other houses
4. continued pre-demolition work on the old concrete plant.
5. extension/leveling of the road area to the south of the main build.
6. completion of the isolation foundation in the small pit, and filling in of the small pit is almost complete
7. lots more foundation work in the large bit for the presses.
8. continued geopier work for the west building and for the east-central of the east building.
9. lots more foundation pads for the steel pillars for the east building.
10. foundation pads for steel pillars for the west building
11. northern part of the east building is having concrete pilings poured, these seem about twice the depth of the geopiers.
12. four large cranes have been delivered and assembled.
13. deliveries of steel
14. one more section of steel erected
15. extension of the cleared area under the high voltage pylons

 

[dc_h]

Interesting tweet from Gary Black:

https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1326846192479776768



+ a table comparing to other tech companies.

Interesting that street 2022 earnings are at $5.75, which is within reach for 2021. A lot can impact growth in the next year, like 2020, there is no guarantee of a level playing field or clear paths forward. Tesla is kicking ass, but the future is arriving like a drunk driver and we're likely to hit some more traffic cones next year.

 

[Nakata]

I know this has already been posted before.
But it is so good that I wanted to let you guys know that you have to watch this if you want to know more about FSD.

I just finished it and it made me so much more bullish on FSD.
James does really know his stuff and Dave asks the right questions.

 

[Bobfitz1]

I think perhaps the bigger question will be what local, state and federal officials will do with the first death in a vehicle operating autonomously. The press will certainly have a field day when it happens. The uneducated in the public will undoubtedly be outraged. The question will be, can cooler heads prevail and see the bigger picture or will they immediately cower to public pressure and pull the plug.
Dan

Their far bigger field day will be with the first death outside a vehicle operating autonomously. Like a very old or young pedestrian.

 

[amolina]

I don’t think so for several reasons. For a significant portion of the population, the car they own is more than a means to go from A to B. So, they like a particular brand, or the aura (or lack thereof) that comes with the brand. If there are lots of Tesla’s , many people want to have something different, even if it is not as good.
A second reason is that it creates diversity. A couple of buttons more could persuade people to buy something else. Or a luxury feature, such as a steering wheel? I bet a company that sells an EV with leather seats will have customers.

There might be a few who would still want to buy cars from the OEM that partners with Tesla, but I think the number would be very low. The OEM's would be tarnishing their brand and loyalty by licensing battery/autonomous tech from Tesla.
Imagine, Daimler comes out with a partnership deal that they are going to be putting BMW's engine in their cars. Would you really buy them or the makers of the real technology themselves?

However, I do see a scenario where fleets could buy Legacy OEM cars with Tesla tech, because it might be operationally profitable. Although, I would give this scenario a smaller likelihood

 

[Krugerrand]

So many talk about Tesla licensing technology to other automakers, However, the day any OEM announces that they are using Tesla Battery/Autonomous tech, that's the day they loose all their brand loyals to Tesla. People will instead simply just buy Tesla.

For that reason, I see it hard for traditional OEM's to partner with Tesla. Maybe unless the OEM is partnering for a segment that Tesla doesn't produce yet for eg. Vans. But then again, Daimler would find it hard to sell anything if they needed Tesla's help to manufacture their vans.

The only way I see OEM's collaborating with Tesla is after they have gone bankrupt and discarded major parts of their value chain.

Won’t be any OEM partnership, ever. That ship sailed a few years ago. There isn’t a single thing any OEM has that Tesla needs, and for a *partnership* you need an equal exchange.

Any current partnership would be Tesla technology, panache etc in exchange for ? at best money. Tesla doesn’t need money and soon OEMs aren’t going to have any of it.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Here's today's Tech chart from 09:30 EST:

Cheers!

 

[elasalle]

Wondering if it will take FSD with robotaxis to get us out out of there and bring fresh new money from big financials

500K deliveries for Q4 might do it.
MY China, GIGA Berlin could do it as well.

Folks are counting the Ships out of Pier 80, but China is now delivering to EU. Also, as in past quarter East Coast is likely being used.

Recent EM smears from VanityFair etc does remind one of the old times, when FUD was max to bring down the SP.

 

[FrankSG]

Elazar Advisors, article and video ($744 PT):

Tesla: Secret Sauce For Valuation, Strong Buy Rating (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

Model and Price Target

At the moment, our 2021 EPS estimates for Tesla are around $14.07 (full model: paywall). The Street’s at $4. If we’re right which way is the stock going?

Using a conservative PE of 55, that would give us a 12-month price target of around $744. I think if we're right on earnings the market could be ready to pay a higher PE. With current prices near $410 this gives us around 88% 12-month upside potential.

I couldn't find how they get to their 2021 EPS estimate of $14.07, which I assume to be non-GAAP, but I will gladly take the under on this.

Even with 1.25M deliveries, Sales Gross Margin excl. Credits growing to 25.1%, and Operating Margin growing to 18.2%, I only get a 2021 non-GAAP EPS of $9.55.

I really don't see how $14.07 could happen. What does @The Accountant think?

 

[Krugerrand]

Being a native German and having founded a number of companies in Germany and sold different software products into hundreds of German companies as my customers, I can confirm that unions and workers' councils can have a huge impact on the innovativeness and culture of German companies.

Because of their fear of having to approach the workers' council with a project - or a subsequent rejection of the project by the worker's council -, a non-trivial number of prospective customers of mine opted to not invest in software that would have made their operations substantially more efficient, even after proof of a positive ROI > 500%. There's a lot of irrational behavior going on due to these groups.

We would be doing ourselves as investors a huge disfavor if we were to exclude this topic of discussion from this thread, since these organizations and groups can have a very decisive impact on Tesla's operations in Germany, both directly as well as indirectly (e.g., due to the good connections of union leaders with local, state & federal politicians).

Thus, I kindly ask the mods to reconsider the position around these aspects, and potentially fence the discussion in a more differentiated way (e.g., discussions about unions and workers' councils are permissible as long as they are in direct connection with Tesla's operations in Germany).

How is this important? You think it might stop Tesla’s innovation? For real? Like how dealerships stopped Tesla from selling cars direct? Like how China prevented Tesla from owning its own factory? Like how Germany is currently stopping Tesla from building their factory faster than it’s ever been done before in the country? Like how the competition was going to destroy Tesla? Like how lawsuits were going to destroy Tesla? I can go on.

At this point, it’s like people can’t believe how things are going for Tesla and TSLA that they need to dig, scratch and claw for something that will make all the goodness that is Tesla disappear.

Here it is: It’s too late. There isn’t a government, a coalition, a union, a worker’s group, an analyst, a hedge fund, a bank, a country on this planet that can stop Tesla. Any roadblocks put in their way will simply be circumvented and/or destroyed. The shift of power is already transitioning. Stop looking for ways to worry and fret.

Incoming Zen: If you put enough energy into something; ie., a thought, you will manifest that reality, good or bad.

Let’s use our energy to discuss how Tesla culture overcomes stagnant, oppressive thought dynamics in unions/worker groups.

Such as; how many employees has Tesla significantly monetarily enriched via their stock plan program? What union/worker group can stand up against that? Even if an employee thinks they work too hard and too many hours, they’d trade that over security for their family and early retirement and the chance to be part of changing the world? Okay, then. Go work for someone else and let the rest get down to business saving this planet.

 

[bkp_duke]

Recent EM smears from VanityFair etc does remind one of the old times, when FUD was max to bring down the SP.

Saw that this morning. Just reeked of desperation.

 

[Nordicherring]

TSLA Institutional Owners and 13F Filers (Tesla)

Has this been discussed already? The chart in there shows that institutional investments in TSLA have grown to 15 billion in Q4 2020. Compared to previous highest quarter of around 3 billion in Q1 2020. Previous quarters have been mostly on the sell side too, compared to mere 12 million sold so far in Q4)

I find this quite interesting...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Wondering if it will take FSD with robotaxis to get us out out of there and bring fresh new money from big financials

Lol, Tesla is already a $1.5T company in 5 years on just CURRENT planned production. We know nothing yet about Model 2, which will be as big as S3XY combined (+5M units/yr).

FSD will be an order of magnitude more, but it will required the Model 1. Think 2025. Once the software is mature, the manufacturing (esp. the bty man tech), the Model 1 will double Telsa annual vehicle volume again (+10M units/yr).

Keep in mind, FSD will NOT be just a margin boost for its range of cars and trucks: FSD will be the key enablling technolgy for Tesla's own worldwide fleet of robotaxis. Best part? The bulk of all Models 1 purchased beginning in 2025(ish) will be owned by Tesla, and added directly to their robotaxi fleet, paid for by S3XY margins (and eliminating tax liabilities).

TL;dr HODL

 

[PaulusdB]

... Tesla doesn’t need money and soon OEMs aren’t going to have any of it.

This just about sums it all up.
Thank you, we can close this thread. Or even this forum..