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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
lafrisbee
Active Member
Forgive me. But my viewpoint is that they are allowing testing of assisted driving upto and including L5. But that in order for FSD to be viable in the court system it will have to be approved by the government. I do not think it the Government has relinquished the control of FSD to the auto industry. And without the approval/endorsement lawsuits will be undefendable.
EDIT: No matter what the actual law/scenario is this seems like it would be a stellar topic for the Youtube creators to dive into..."What are the insurance/legal hurdles for L5 Autonomy."
Pezpunk
Active Member
Very interesting. As a relative layman, I have a few questions:
1) How have institutions already filed SEC paperwork for transactions in Q4 when we're only halfway through it?
2) If institutional investors have increased their stake by 800% in Q4 as that chart implies, how has the stock price been flat since late August? (AFAIK, "Q4" started in October). (and if it doesn't imply that, what am i misreading?)
3) What percentage of the overall market, and Tesla ownership, do these institutional investors represent?
This is simply due to the stock split. Every investor that did not change its position will be calculated as increasing its position by 400%, because its shares are 5x what they were 3 months ago.
That explains a lot, but it doesn't explain the miniscule sell side. Yes, I know Q4 isn't over yet.
1) This is likely based on the 13F filings coming out right now, which report holdings as of the end of Q3, so trades made between EoQ2 and EoQ3.
2) It's just saying 800% because of the stock split. See my posts above and below.
3) Top 69 investors (incl Elon & Larry) held 82.1% at EoQ2. See spreadsheet attached to this blog post:
TSLA Holders Q2'20 (Top 69)
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Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Literally nothing you wrote there is correct.
L5 already is approved by the government in FL and a number of other states
A car maker could sell an L5 car, legally, with no approval by anybody needed, in Florida today.
The court system doesn't make laws- state legislatures do.
In Florida the law is if your self driving car can obey all the same laws a human driven car can, it's legal to drive it right now.
Not "testing" but full on consumer or commercial use. Today. Right now.
The "WE ARE WAITING FOR APPROVAL" stuff is absolutely untrue in FL (and a number of other US states).
The reason nobody has deployed such a thing is nobody has one that actually works yet.
you can read the most relevant law (for FL) on this here-
Statutes & Constitution :View Statutes : Online Sunshine
It's likely based on 13Fs being released around this time, which show holdings as of the end of 3rd quarter.
Low selling is explained by the fact that an investor who sold half its stock during Q3, will still have 2.5x as many shares, so will likely show up as a buyer in this data, further adding to inflated buyers data.
Let me add a few examples:
Investor A held 1M shares at end of Q2, held onto the same position, and has 5M shares now.
This data will think he bought 4M shares, and say he bought 4M * ~$400 = $1.6B
Investor B held 1M shares at end of Q2, sold 60%, holds 2M shares now.
This data will think he bought 1M shares, and say he bought 1M * ~$400 = $400M
lafrisbee
Active Member
I get that. But medicine takes place inside the body. Accidents are visceral because they can be absorbed by the human eye. And lawsuits will be filed and won based on, "If the provider of this service had XXXXX which is in Tesla FSD then the claimant's family would not be here today."
The second video with James Douma is also very interesting. I feel like Tesla is build industrial scale tech that can bring AI into the physical world like in robots, drones etc. This division of Tesla in a few years can possibly give Nvidia a run for its money.
Remember, how excited George Hotz was when he learnt that Tesla was building a supercomputer for neural net training. He wanted Elon to license this out and screw Nvidia and Google.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Can a FL bought FSD vehicle drive itself in all other states?
Pezpunk
Active Member
So the bar labeled "Q4 2020" actually represents market action that happened during Q3 (and does correlate to Tesla's doubling in value during July and August). Kind of misleading. This is basically old news.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Well since an L5 car is fictional right now it's hard to definitively say what it can do where.
But the definition of L5 says it'd be CAPABLE of doing it anywhere.
It would be LEGAL to do it in some states, and not others.
Since the car has GPS it'd be simple enough to restrict it to where it's legal- much like say Supercruise now restricts what roads it works on.... or how Teslas own AP/FSD system limits your max speed or other behavior based on its location (behavior in US differs from EU, and even differs between highways and local non-divided roads).
Remember how at autonomy day Elon said he felt sure robotaxis would be approved in one or more jurisdictions by the end of 2019?
Technically he's right- they're "approved" in Florida and several other states in that they generically say self driving cars are legal with no further approvals needed.... even if the actual cars themselves can't work that way yet.
But point being it's not "waiting for approval" that's the hold up. It's waiting for "An L5 car that actually works correctly and safely to exist" that is holding it up.
Sorry for the OT question: any news behind the ~$7 jump between 9:55 and 10:20 EST ?
lafrisbee
Active Member
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Yes, and since, unlike working L5 cars, guns exist, they're readily sold there.
Just as I'd expect self driving cars will be sold there, without needing any additional or special "approval" by anyone since they're ALREADY LEGAL THERE, once a manufacturer actually has such a product to sell.
Tesla- if their stated plans work out- are well ahead of this game as they'll already have a ton of cars on the road there that can become self-driving with the flip of a switch. Again the holdup isn't regulatory.
Super-impressive manipulation walk-down there!
Once again, I'm perplexed what this really serves...
Once again, I'm perplexed what this really serves...
Well...I am looking to buy more shares so a "walk-down" would be appreciated by me. Just trying to determine a good time to buy more.
If you intend to hold long term, now is a good time.
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