Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TravelFree]

Maybe not your numbers but you described my plan. I have plenty of shares in the 10 accounts I am managing and while many feel it's a mistake to trade and choose to sit long, that is not how I have built a sizeable portfolio wit zero basis. Some say all houses money. I'm in my 70's so time is not on my side. No desire to run a car rental company Robotaxi or not. I wouldn't mine buying a Roadster2 as I can afford it now, but current plans are to trade in the Leaf and get a Y after they announce the new releases and have a track record of zero body defects on delivery.

I do think Tesla will have to have the insurance because you would need commercial rental business insurance and that is much more expensive. Don't plan on renting your Tesla for $$ a day and collect on personal car insurance. If that's all you have an serious injury could bankrupt you as the company won't cover that. These people with TURO are taking a huge risk with so little return.

If Tesla owns the fleet and just parks it at my house then maybe it isn't such a bad deal if I were 30 years younger and needed the income.

Thanks for all your thoughts on this. Currently there is too much unknown on how it will really work. Most of us here are probably more interested in how it will affect the profits than actually doing the business as a sideline.

 

[EV forever]

I'm going to start posting periodic "keep it rational people" comments before we get too crazy.

It's super likely that further appreciation is coming, but that doesn't mean traders and MM's won't let the SP run up a bit then sell calls and short the stock before inclusion. These people don't care about Tesla as much as we think, most of them don't care at all. They simply want to make money.

This ultra-transparent opportunity based on what amounts to mandatory buying in a very well defined window is open for ALL MARKET PARTICIPANTS to leverage. These guys will take those 32 days to maximize their profits in whatever manner works. Logically that means there will be some pretty big swings both up and down.

None of us should be surprised to be sitting right at $520(or lower) on December 16th when the theoretical buying window opens. No one is selling.....but who exactly is going to be buying at $570 next week? We could be ripe yet again for manipulation with the goal of taking weekly call buyer's premiums. My guess is more like $650 on Dec 16th, but you get the point.

Yes, all that you say here is true. But one thing to add - "This ultra-transparent opportunity" is transparent and obvious to us on these forums who are obsessively following Elon, Tesla and his other companies. I am always shocked with the type of FUD that the regular folks still completely believe. They have been fed this c**p for so long, they are unable to even entertain the possibility that the analysts and experts brought on CNBS may be clueless, stupid or just plain unethical, lying through their teeth, paid shills. The 'regular folks' that I am talking about, well they are 90% of my friend circle. It just amazes me that folks who are otherwise quite savvy investors, are so freaking clueless when it comes to TSLA!

So, as much as I am also trying to keep myself same and rational, it doesn't mean that something totally irrational will not happen. So, it is best to have some positions to take advantage of it. Yes, the MMs may short the stock with abandon to push it down, but there have been times they lost control. From everything we are seeing now, I believe that is the more likely scenario that will play out over the next 3 weeks. Weekly calls - no longer something I am going to try even as lottery tickets, lost money every time I tried. All the calls I am buying now are Dec 24 through Feb. They are more money due to time premium, but will let me take profits if the irrational doesn't happen.

 

[WattsHappening]

I'm going to start posting periodic "keep it rational people" comments before we get too crazy.

It's super likely that further appreciation is coming, but that doesn't mean traders and MM's won't let the SP run up a bit then sell calls and short the stock before inclusion. These people don't care about Tesla as much as we think, most of them don't care at all. They simply want to make money.

This ultra-transparent opportunity based on what amounts to mandatory buying in a very well defined window is open for ALL MARKET PARTICIPANTS to leverage. These guys will take those 32 days to maximize their profits in whatever manner works. Logically that means there will be some pretty big swings both up and down.

None of us should be surprised to be sitting right at $520(or lower) on December 16th when the theoretical buying window opens. No one is selling.....but who exactly is going to be buying at $570 next week? We could be ripe yet again for manipulation with the goal of taking weekly call buyer's premiums. My guess is more like $650 on Dec 16th, but you get the point.

You all who have been calling for the price spike after S&P announcement have been right.

But I can't help the nagging feeling that it's too easy, too logical. If everyone KNOWS the price has to go up over the next several weeks, doesn't that in and of itself indicate we are missing something? While the number crunching and logic laid out here make perfect sense to me, one thing I do know is the stock market acts very irrationally at times, often zigging when we expect it to zag.

@TheTalkingMule makes sense to 'keep it rational.' While I am envious of those of you who have leveraged your position with options and are making a killing, I am happy to play along with my toes dipped in the water and just stay long shares.

 

[Paul_SF]

Maybe not your numbers but you described my plan. I have plenty of shares in the 10 accounts I am managing and while many feel it's a mistake to trade and choose to sit long, that is not how I have built a sizeable portfolio wit zero basis. Some say all houses money. I'm in my 70's so time is not on my side. No desire to run a car rental company Robotaxi or not. I wouldn't mine buying a Roadster2 as I can afford it now, but current plans are to trade in the Leaf and get a Y after they announce the new releases and have a track record of zero body defects on delivery.

I do think Tesla will have to have the insurance because you would need commercial rental business insurance and that is much more expensive. Don't plan on renting your Tesla for $$ a day and collect on personal car insurance. If that's all you have an serious injury could bankrupt you as the company won't cover that. These people with TURO are taking a huge risk with so little return.

If Tesla owns the fleet and just parks it at my house then maybe it isn't such a bad deal if I were 30 years younger and needed the income.

Thanks for all your thoughts on this. Currently there is too much unknown on how it will really work. Most of us here are probably more interested in how it will affect the profits than actually doing the business as a sideline.

with all the respect, if I was you I would just buy the Y now, the defects you claim are keeping you from getting it are completely irrelevant.

get the Y and go on a road trip!

 

[woodisgood]

While I am envious of those of you who have leveraged your position with options and are making a killing, I am happy to play along with my toes dipped in the water and just stay long shares.

Don’t be. They’re envious of how well you sleep at night.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Maybe not your numbers but you described my plan. I have plenty of shares in the 10 accounts I am managing and while many feel it's a mistake to trade and choose to sit long, that is not how I have built a sizeable portfolio wit zero basis. Some say all houses money. I'm in my 70's so time is not on my side. No desire to run a car rental company Robotaxi or not. I wouldn't mine buying a Roadster2 as I can afford it now, but current plans are to trade in the Leaf and get a Y after they announce the new releases and have a track record of zero body defects on delivery.

I do think Tesla will have to have the insurance because you would need commercial rental business insurance and that is much more expensive. Don't plan on renting your Tesla for $$ a day and collect on personal car insurance. If that's all you have an serious injury could bankrupt you as the company won't cover that. These people with TURO are taking a huge risk with so little return.

If Tesla owns the fleet and just parks it at my house then maybe it isn't such a bad deal if I were 30 years younger and needed the income.

Thanks for all your thoughts on this. Currently there is too much unknown on how it will really work. Most of us here are probably more interested in how it will affect the profits than actually doing the business as a sideline.

"and have a track record of zero body defects on delivery." - Hate to burst your bubble but you will most likely never buy a Y in this lifetime if you are waiting for that

 

[ZeApelido]

Omg this is the strongest proof we are living in a simulation.

https://twitter.com/enn_nafnlaus/status/1331395118084001793?s=20

 

[WattsHappening]

Don’t be. They’re envious of how well you sleep at night.

I would have been happy to have lost a bit of sleep in exchange for some of these returns.

But ya, I know what you mean.

 

[ZeApelido]

...wealthier than any one currently in the world is.

There are many people who have at least 1 more share than you do.

Don't ruin my dreams.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Is Tesla About to Get Crushed by General Motors?

see also : "Is Apple's iPod about to get crushed by Microsoft's Zune?"

 

[CanadaEV]

You all who have been calling for the price spike after S&P announcement have been right.

But I can't help the nagging feeling that it's too easy, too logical. If everyone KNOWS the price has to go up over the next several weeks, doesn't that in and of itself indicate we are missing something? While the number crunching and logic laid out here make perfect sense to me, one thing I do know is the stock market acts very irrationally at times, often zigging when we expect it to zag.

@TheTalkingMule makes sense to 'keep it rational.' While I am envious of those of you who have leveraged your position with options and are making a killing, I am happy to play along with my toes dipped in the water and just stay long shares.

What you say fits perfectly with the aims of many long term TSLA investors.
Even the most steadfast of us can be (greedily?) tempted by what looks like a no-brainer circumstance, like what we seem to be in now.
One consideration is that by holding long term, there is relatively small opportunity to realize cash in the short term.
Therefore, there is the opportunity of making the best of this S&P 500 inclusion to generate that cash through the use of calls, while at the same time keeping true to the long-term philosophy of holding one’s shares.
“If everyone KNOWS the price has to go up over the next several weeks, doesn't that in and of itself indicate we are missing something?”
While I do live by a conviction that I can always be sabotaged by an unknown out of left field, I don't give it absolute sway over what I believe I know when that belief is strong enough.
(Edit): Having said all that, I am in complete agreement with your preference for moderation in a situation like this.

 

[Prunesquallor]

 

[Criscmt]

Friday after Thanksgiving...

Most people believe that this day will be sleepy. Only half day, and many people do not show up.

Yet, it is precisely for this reason that I have seen spectacular moves in SPs on this day.

We are expecting a give back Friday with the MMs in control trying to maximize the pain.

We are in uncharted waters. TSLA has gone rogue, and they do not know what the hell to do. Do not be shocked with a huge move on Friday.

I totally the last person to take advice from. FYI.

You mean, move more likely downward? Especially with the 20+ Million options expiring this Friday?

 

[vikings123]

I would not be the least bit surprised if the stock goes from ~700-800 back to 450 after inclusion is complete. People who have been front running will take their profits and run. Shorts will pile on, etc. I hope it doesn't happen, but I'm mentally prepared for it and will be ready to trade for it (Only selling calls, not buying calls, waiting to sell Puts until the drop has stopped, not catching a falling knife, etc)....

P.S. - I do predict a rebound from the 400s in January when delivery numbers and Q4ER are released.

I just don’t see us going to the 400 level even after the inclusion. This is not a VW type of squeeze. If anything the 15-20% of float(more actually) that will now be bought by index/benchmark funds which should decrease supply. I can see the shorts completely ignoring this dynamic and dig another hole but regardless I do think we establish a new base, maybe 600 or 700 but not lower than that.

I’m going to wait until the very last day of index buying to sell any covered calls and that too only if IV > 100.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Tue, Nov 24, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "TSLA Melts Up w. Macro Tailwinds"

Traded: $29,389,396,345.43 ($29.39B)
Volume: 53,753,328
VWAP: $546.75

Close: $555.38 / VWAP: 101.68%
TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP
TSLA MaxPain: $490

Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM $526.445B / $198.778B = 264.84%
Note: Yahoo Finance updated TSLA Mkt Cap for shares issued Sep 9th (per 10-Q)
​

CEO Comp. Status:

TSLA 30-day Moving Avg Market Cap: $415.13B
TSLA 6-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $324.63B
Nota Bene: Mkt Cap for 5th tranche ($300B) likely achieved Nov 09, 2020​

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 53.4% (53rd Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short / Total Volume = 57.5% (55th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume ratio was 0.54% of Short Volume (46th Percentile Rank)​

Comment: "Short covering After-hrs?: New ATH $564.81 (17:21:50 PM)"

QOTD: @kenmccann "You put your pants on?"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[traxila]

You mean, move more likely downward? Especially with the 20+ Million options expiring this Friday?

Yes, I know I am not being brave in my predictions, but the low volume leaves stocks more vulnerable than usual to shenanigans. A ridiculous move in either direction would not shock me. If the market makers smell weakness and do not get push back they could get very aggressive punishing call holders.

I am betting on a move up due to relentless buying pressure we are seeing and will continue to see as the inclusion date approaches. I have seen crazy moves on Black Friday. Point I am making is that Friday could see a helluva lot of action for a half day.

 

[StealthP3D]

"and have a track record of zero body defects on delivery." - Hate to burst your bubble but you will most likely never buy a Y in this lifetime if you are waiting for that

Because there are no cars that have zero body defects.

 

[Mo City]

I would not be the least bit surprised if the stock goes from ~700-800 back to 450 after inclusion is complete. People who have been front running will take their profits and run. Shorts will pile on, etc. I hope it doesn't happen, but I'm mentally prepared for it and will be ready to trade for it (Only selling calls, not buying calls, waiting to sell Puts until the drop has stopped, not catching a falling knife, etc)....

P.S. - I do predict a rebound from the 400s in January when delivery numbers and Q4ER are released.

Two things:

1 I don't see TSLA falling all the way back to $450. Anything is possible though.
2 I was also assuming Q4 deliveries and earnings would pump TSLA until a couple of days ago when I remembered the market's muted reaction to Q2 and Q3. IMO, good chance that happens again.

 

[traxila]

Because there are no cars that have zero body defects.

Yes! This! Legacy OEMs have zero body defects...please.

 

[AudubonB]

He forgot the part about getting a broken RV, towing it to the driveway and renting that out.

Not only is that a GREAT idea...but since we now know that Jesse Pinkman has moved to Alaska....hmmm..............