Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ReddyLeaf]

You can tell that some were caught off guard and some weren't.
The capping action before the announcement was very suspicious. However if you look at option premium it means that the majority of the people did not see it coming. And lurking in all these trading chat rooms. Most people do not know that Tesla is getting included in S&P nor the intricacies between the shorted shares and the amount that needs to be bought. They are basically just screaming TSLA!!! because it is going up by >5% a day. This is how ignorant the masses are.

I was definitely caught off guard, even though we all knew that the committee pu ETSY in instead of TSLA last time. I was really expecting the S&P to wait until next year. I even had an overnight covered call sale input into my trading platform. When I saw the announcement here on TMC I immediately cancelled the sell order and put in two buy orders. I barely slept that night, half expecting that my sell orders would get executed anyway. I lucked out on that one. I wish that I had bought more calls, but alas I’ve never been one to bet it all too quickly.

 

[Criscmt]

I just don’t see us going to the 400 level even after the inclusion. This is not a VW type of squeeze. If anything the 15-20% of float(more actually) that will now be bought by index/benchmark funds which should decrease supply. I can see the shorts completely ignoring this dynamic and dig another hole but regardless I do think we establish a new base, maybe 600 or 700 but not lower than that.

I’m going to wait until the very last day of index buying to sell any covered calls and that too only if IV > 100.

I thought the peak will be before the last day of index buying. I am expecting the FOMO on the sell side, those who bought to sell at a profit, perhaps some long term holders who want to take "some" cash out.
Mind sharing your thoughts on why peak likely won't be well before last day?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

S&P decision announcement on 11/30. Is it after hours or pre or during market hours?

1. Is there certainty on the time on 11/30 when the announcement of the decision would be made?
2. Are you guys preparing with some protections for surprises post the announcements?

Past behavior is a good indication of future behavior.....I assume they'll go with the two tranche option and it will implode the universe.

Imagine Dec 14th or so when the first buying window drives SP from $630 to $850 and then it just sits there. Obviously it would be stupid to sell.....there's another +30% window just a week away!

And what if something worse happens? What if there's a mega spike or shorts start shorting like crazy at $850? The 2nd window will be like the end of Trading Places.

Given the fact that everyone has to this point exclusively taken the dumber option when it comes to TSLA, my assumption is they'll split it. Cheers to the longs!

 

[StealthP3D]

Everybody's different. Some can handle the lunacy of working with options, some can't or don't want to. I can tell you for sure if I knew 4 years ago everything I now know about options, learned entirely here, I'd have a LOT more money.

There have been at least a half dozen opportunities to lever up with options over the last handful of years where I would've been "right" maybe 1/3 of the time and made 10-20x on that 1/3. Plenty of other periods were simply selling safe puts for 6 month stretches would have added shares to my pile.

I'd be willing to bet some of the fattest piles of cash on this forum are sitting with people who did it relatively conservativley with options. It's not easy, but if you're rational and we'll schooled it almost seems like a waste of all this deep insight to not lever up when appropriate.

Like now.

I wasn't saying not to "lever up" with options - I was trying to point out the fallacy of using the excuse that it's one of the only ways to "generate cash". That is a mental mind twist that has no place in investing.

 

[Ratanpara]

It has been just over 1 week since the announcement of Tesla to be added to the S&P500. Since then we have had 3 rather bullish and well spaced out analyst upgrades or SP upgrades. Could this be a coordinated effort by those who have been bullish for awhile? Adding fuel to the fire to keep the rally going, overcoming (or taming) the negative influences of the MM with the objective of having the SP as high as possible when the funds start to buy in December?

Wishful thinkking

Is anyone considering shorting the company(s) who may get booted from the S&P500?

For symbolic reason Exxon should be booted out, Old energy out new in.

 

[Brian121]

There are talk here about possible top at or close to 12/21.

Don't forget last year at this time I believe there was a positive earning beat, and then stock started to take off, but some people here thought that it would settle down when the weak Q1 2020 come and started the talk about bail, only to see the MIC Model 3 delivery in January 2020 and Elon's goofy dance in Shanghai, and the stock never looked back.

History is a comedy, because it's very likely that China MIC Model Y will start delivery on 1/7/2021, the pass away anniversary of Nikola Tesla and Elon could show his improved dance skill again in Shanghai.

I don't believe for sure that TSLA will shoot through the roof from January on ward in 2021 like this year, because I don't know. Instead, what I would like to contribute to this forum is that the talk about the stock will fall after 12/21 is premature.

Nobody knows how the market will behave is what I would like to advocate.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

We all know that $TSLA doesn't just go up in a straight line...what we do know is that the longer it bases...the higher it goes on the next move up. Even if it does go down, it recovers eventually and makes another ATH. Congrats to all longs! Enjoy the roller coaster everyone!

 

[Mo City]

There are talk here about possible top at or close to 12/21.

Don't forget last year at this time I believe there was a positive earning beat, and then stock started to take off, but some people here thought that it would settle down when the weak Q1 2020 come and started the talk about bail, only to see the MIC Model 3 delivery in January 2020 and Elon's goofy dance in Shanghai, and the stock never looked back.

History is a comedy, because it's very likely that China MIC Model Y will start delivery on 1/7/2021, the pass away anniversary of Nikola Tesla and Elon could show his improved dance skill again in Shanghai.

I don't believe for sure that TSLA will shoot through the roof from January on ward in 2021 like this year, because I don't know. Instead, what I would like to contribute to this forum is that the talk about the stock will fall after 12/21 is premature.

Nobody knows how the market will behave is what I would like to advocate.

MIC Model Y production starts in December and hopefully begins ramping in January.

I also wouldn't say "the stock never looked back" after January 2020. It actually did because of COVID and, well, it remains the vomit inducing TSLA we all know and love. If someone doesn't like heart-pounding, headache-inducing roller coasters, they should avoid this ride stick to something slower.

If the "squeeze" scenario discussed by so many comes to pass and TSLA soars like a meteor the next 4 weeks, I don't see how it won't fall sometime before EOY. How much is anyone's guess. If there is no huge squeeze, we'll see.

 

[Paul_SF]

Construction and operation of Tesla's gigafactory in Shanghai maintains rapid progress - Xinhua | English.news.cn

 

[MC3OZ]

If the "squeeze" scenario discussed by so many comes to pass and TSLA soars like a meteor the next 4 weeks, I don't see how it won't fall sometime shortly after 12/21 (or even before). How much is anyone's guess. If there is no huge squeeze, we'll see.

IMO if there is a squeeze, Tesla should consider taping the squeeze with another at the market $5B raise.

The purpose would be to pay off any convertible notes outstanding, because if they convert, that may be more dilution than paying them out early.

Reducing debt and and posting good Q4 financial results, also helps minimize any drop.

Longer term, I am more interested in the rate at which Tesla can scale vehicle production, and also grow other product markets like Tesla energy. So far, the rate of expansion seems to be able to grow into most valuations.

 

[astrotoy]

By holding a non-dividend bearing stock long-term, there is NO opportunity to realize cash in the short-term. You would have to sell some.
There is always a time and a place for withdrawing cash from your investment portfolio. But you are fooling yourself if you think it's somehow better to take profits from options trades than from other investments. It's all just cash gains (although tax considerations could play into it).

Let me ask you this: When you hold options that expire worthless do you immediately calculate the loss and make a cash deposit to reimburse your brokerage account? The real question here is not by which method the gains were made but whether you really want to withdraw money from your investment account. Don't get me wrong, I've been withdrawing all the money we live on plus large purchases and real estate acquisitions for over 25 years without ever adding to it (and yet it continues to grow) but it doesn't matter whether the withdrawals come from interest, options trades or stock. It's just cash. The net effect, and the largest consideration, is it reduces our investible capital and the compound returns we get with that capital.

Before you say, "wait a minute, I'm talking about making income by writing covered calls", I'll point out that you are still risking the growth of your capital. There is a cost to everything, nothing is "free" in this world. And if you don't need that cash, then you don't need to risk the growth of your capital. It's easier to spend less than it is to fool yourself that you have devised a way to generate cash that doesn't risk your overall returns.

If you have enough stock, you can do what Elon probably does to get cash. Borrow money from a bank, using your TSLA stock as collateral. I am guessing you will get a decent interest rate if you borrow a relatively small fraction of the worth of the stock. Very low risk loan for a bank. Eventually you will have to pay back the loan or roll over the loan. You will need to pay at least the interest on the loan during the lifetime of the loan or have it accumulate as additional debt, particularly if TSLA continues to rise.

 

[StealthP3D]

If you have enough stock, you can do what Elon probably does to get cash. Borrow money from a bank, using your TSLA stock as collateral. I am guessing you will get a decent interest rate if you borrow a relatively small fraction of the worth of the stock. Very low risk loan for a bank. Eventually you will have to pay back the loan or roll over the loan. You will need to pay at least the interest on the loan during the lifetime of the loan or have it accumulate as additional debt, particularly if TSLA continues to rise.

In an emergency, borrowing against your stock might be a good option depending upon your circumstances. I always advise people who are trying to build a nest egg to cut spending ruthlessly because a dollar saved at a young age means so much more than a dollar or two saved in old age (due to the power of compounding). And it's easy to think you need to spend more to be happy or to think things will make your life better. And, if you can afford it, splurge on things that really matter to you, just try to keep that list from including everything, lol!

 

[kanweg]

If the "squeeze" scenario discussed by so many comes to pass and TSLA soars like a meteor the next 4 weeks, I don't see how it won't fall sometime before EOY. How much is anyone's guess. If there is no huge squeeze, we'll see.

And also, the early announcement makes the market cap rise and thus the percentage that Tesla will be of the S&P. But in case of an artificial inflation of the marketcap a lowered SP will also result in a rebalancing one quarter later. A lot of stock will be dumped by index funds in a very short time.

(I don’t know what I’m talking about. I just admit it)

 

[ggr]

After-action Report: Tue, Nov 24, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "TSLA Melts Up w. Macro Tailwinds"

Traded: $29,389,396,345.43 ($29.39B)
Volume: 53,753,328
VWAP: $546.75

Close: $555.38 / VWAP: 101.68%
TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP
TSLA MaxPain: $490

Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM $526.445B / $198.778B = 264.84%
Note: Yahoo Finance updated TSLA Mkt Cap for shares issued Sep 9th (per 10-Q)
​

CEO Comp. Status:

TSLA 30-day Moving Avg Market Cap: $415.13B
TSLA 6-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $324.63B
Nota Bene: Mkt Cap for 5th tranche ($300B) likely achieved Nov 09, 2020​

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 53.4% (53rd Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short / Total Volume = 57.5% (55th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume ratio was 0.54% of Short Volume (46th Percentile Rank)​

View attachment 611570

Comment: "Short covering After-hrs?: New ATH $564.81 (17:21:50 PM)"

QOTD: @kenmccann "You put your pants on?"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

I finally figured out why your charts bug me. You always show the percentages relative to the opening price of TSLA, but this completely ignores any gap up or down overnight... which was about 5% last night.

 

[TravelFree]

I have 3 CT's on order for RT's and my conservative case is also 24 months

View attachment 611596

 

[wipster]

I'm kinda thinking we're gonna see 600 tomorrow...

 

[vwman111]

I'm kinda thinking we're gonna see 600 tomorrow...

I absolutely love your optimism...

 

[wipster]

I absolutely love your optimism...

Well, it's already over $570 US in Germany, that's kinda what I'm basing it on. Definitely didn't expect it so soon, but in this universe anything can happen... and probably will.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla trading at the equivalent of $572.56 early in the session at Berlin (TLO)

 

[vwman111]

Well, it's already over $570 US in Germany, that's kinda what I'm basing it on. Definitely didn't expect it so soon, but in this universe anything can happen... and probably will.

I'm locked and loaded and ready for a squeeze. Bring it on!