Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

Yahoo's site has gotten terrible recently - often just stops getting updated data on the stock. Are there any other sites that not only display the stock price on the screen, but also in the browser tab title? That's what I love about the Yahoo one, I don't have to switch tabs.

 

[lklundin]

Maybe I'm mistaken, but I don't see how it can be 2-4 weeks. I believe there should've been around 60-80k SR reservations sitting around.

Napkin math:
455k total reservations as of 8/2017 minus 20% cancelled=364k. Say 50% is N.A. That's 182k.

I believe around 100k of these were delivered as of 12/2018(all LRs prior to Q3+ ~90% of Q3(Ps and non-AWDs were up for grabs w/o reservation) + 25% of Q4 deliveries(per Elon).

So, ~82k outstanding remaining. Unknows are: How many of these canceled between 8/2017 and 3/2019. And how many new reservations were added between 8/2017 and 7/2018, when reservations were disabled.

Unlikely that any of these were ordering in Jan/Feb, since they should've gone for MR+$7.5k credit when they had the chance.

I'm thinking there was likely a net decrease due to cancellations, so maybe 70k.

These people have no excuse not to order, assuming they were saving up the last 3 years.
Unless some hardships etc.
So, say 60k. If these people ordered, it's 2 months of production. Considering that SR production is just "ramping up" and at least 50% will be LRs and MRs, I think that whomever has not ordered SR by now will not get the $3,750 credit.

Good points.

As a counter example, I am still sitting on my day 1 reservation, although I plan to get a LR AWD which has been available for a couple of months now. My reason for holding out for a couple more moths is that I want a bit more insurance to choose from (given that I crashed my previous car) and I don't want to pay the "first adopter premium", i.e. I am guessing (so far correctly), that more options and value for money arrive in the months following the initial deliveries.

So there could be more reservation holders still waiting before pulling the trigger on a large purchase (their largest kind, or second if they are house owners).

 

[Unpilot]

Won’t drop dead when he is this fit.
View attachment 383581

I would say the misconception around steroid abuse and fitness is a problem.
To achieve the muscle mass many of these "fitness" icon's have is impossible without some form of "chemical help"

To date the information indicates long term the health of these people suffer.

is advice

 

[Tslynk67]

So in a follow-up to the Elon Rock Tweet - this is why Twitter is so powerful for Tesla, when Elon can respond directly to customers in this way. You can bet your ass this will happen too.

And note 289k likes for the original Tweet, which is insane!

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[Leo9]

Hopefully we'll find a bottom soon...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Yahoo's site has gotten terrible recently - often just stops getting updated data on the stock. Are there any other sites that not only display the stock price on the screen, but also in the browser tab title? That's what I love about the Yahoo one, I don't have to switch tabs.

The NASDAQ realtime quote page updates the page title, so you'll see that in a tab. However it only updates once per minute.

Tesla, Inc. Common Stock (TSLA) Real-Time Stock Quote - NASDAQ.com

 

[Unpilot]

Commercials are 30-60s long. Did you manage to explain in that amount of time? Yeah, didn’t think so.

Yeah, slick, greasy ads and commercials, that’s what I want to see.

Actually for some perverse reason I always looked forward to the "new car smirk/smile" at the end of a car commercial.

 

[neroden]

You mean the doctors who pay half their income in taxes and have to work a couple hours a night unpaid doing electronic medical records? Most of them avoid Medicare because it doesn’t pay and they have large student loans to pay.

The student loan situation is a real mess. I will note that at this point nearly all of the doctors I've used were trained abroad, where there qualified students get medical school nearly for free. US medical schools are uncompetitive and it's crazy to go to one.

 

[neroden]

They un-banned it today. US Hedge funds and shorts have been dumping during the morning when liquidity and market depth is highest. Lots of confusion coming from Tesla these past two weeks. Add the SEC issue and you will have institutions bail.

I'm thinking at this point that short-sellers coordinated and designed a bear raid to run at the start of March (when the bonds were paid off) and are just running it anyway even though all the Tesla news is good. May sound conspiratorial, but I think it's the most parsimonious explanation for the nonsense news.

 

[printf42]

This is insane. The only thing I can think of is that they are pre-assembling bigger steel or concrete panels, building blocks somewhere off-site and they will be able to raise the structures very quickly like that. Even so I can only imagine the structures ready by the end of May, with manufacturing lines being installed after that.

Weather in Shanghai permits building with steel frame plus metal/composite panels, if they go that route instead of concrete walls, as soon as the foundation is done, the structure can pop up pretty quickly.

Agree he was likely talking about the building itself by the end of May, not the production lines.

 

[lklundin]

In 2016 life expectancy at 65 for US males was 18 years.
Given that he's already 77, and a billionaire with access to advanced healthcare, I think he'd last until 87.

This would imply that #45's obesity level is typical (for his age and gender), or no?

 

[mrdoubleb]

It's not about the harm. It's about the technological credibility of Elon Musks claims wrt FSD. @Fact Checking defended him by saying that there is not a single claim of Elon about the capabilities of their hardware that does not eventually come true. And that would then be the reason why we should trust his claims about what they'll eventually be able to do with HW3. I am saying that he was wrong in his assesment of what HW2 could do and therefore the conclusion can't be drawn that there is a very high likelihood of him being right on what HW3 eventually be able to do.

So I am pretty sure i won`t find the quote(s) now, but maybe others can confirm if I am imagining things.

However I clearly remember having heard Elon answer the HW question around the AP2 launch with sg. like: at most we may need to replace the computer to enable full self driving but it has been designed to be easily upgradable. At the time I was thinking he meant a quicker or newer iteration of the NVIDIA chip could be used for this, but later turned out they decided to design their own AI processor.

I think they have always planned for the eventuality of the upgrade, but maybe weren`t 100% sure in the beginning if it was going to be needed.

 

[Cosmacelf]

@anthonyj

Don't short, be it Tesla or any other stock. Listen to Buffet and Munger. Shorting is extremely hard. It's relatively much easier to make money on the long side. Think about it this way: with all the opportunities in the market, shorting Nio (or Tesla) would be among the top ten (or twenty, etc.) ideas in your portfolio on a risk/reward basis? JM2C

In general, I agree 100%. I gotta say that it is hard right now to find attractive growth stocks to buy. Everything is priced up the wazoo. Except TSLA, of course. Great, here I am disproving my thesis already. Sigh. Ok, other than TSLA, what else looks good right now

 

[Cherry Wine]

Feels like we may be forming a bottom.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

You know, when everyone starts complaining about margins, production issues, delivery concerns, stock worries, etc, etc, etc, maybe we should remember that Tesla could have chosen to go THIS direction. Thank God they chose to do the difficult thing to bring this technology to the masses.

Dan

The $12.5 Million Bugatti La Voiture Noire Is the World's Most Expensive New Car

 

[ZeApelido]

Daaaaaaaayum this is too funny

Elon Musk on Twitter

View attachment 383517

Top Rock quotes Muskified:

If you smell what Elon….. is….. cookin’! (Not the books)

[To Adam Jonas] What is your name?….It doesn’t matter what your name is!


[To SEC] You want to go One on One with the Great One?

[To German Auto cos] The Musk will Layeth the Smacketh Down all over your Candy Ass!

The Musk is without a doubt. Thee… MOST electrifying man in auto entertainment today!

Elon says [to Bob Lutz]: Know your role and shut your damn mouth!

[To all auto companies] Just Bring It! (Seriously can you bring a real EV to market?)

 

[anthonyj]

More clueless comments.

I’m saying that FSD has done nothing for the person who bought it, since 2016. The only thing it has done is decrease in value. How is that clueless?

 

[Todd Burch]

Feels like we may be forming a bottom.

I think the bottom was yesterday at $270. Shorts are trying hard but it feels like TSLA is slowly clawing back.

 

[HG Wells]

We keep bouncing red and green. Hope it means tonight is second Christmas.

 

[ZachF]

I was previously wishing Nio well, as for all EV startups.

Nio obviously have a far inferior product to Tesla in terms of quality and safety and also have far less vertical integration. Their business model is also basically just trying to copy what Tesla does. They do not even have their own auto factory, but at least they are manufacturing their own battery packs and motors, more valuable IP in the long run than auto assembly i think.

But I've now lost all respect for Nio management after yesterday's call. They announced they are cancelling their plans to build their own factory (they now plan to outsource manufacturing indefinitely). They also announced a forecast 50% QoQ reduction in volume in Q1 and said Q2 will also be weak. They blamed this in part on people waiting to get news on China's new EV subsidy program (which doesn't make any sense as everyone expects the subsidies to be cut significantly).

Rather than properly addressing these significant issues, Nio spent the majority of their call attacking Tesla and spreading significantly incorrect numbers, almost without exception. In particular they said Model 3 range is only 300km (in reality LR is close to 700km on Nio's NEDC standard) and that Model Y will not be a competitor because it will cost over $60k (Elon's tweet implies $38.5k, and China pricing may be lower given significantly lower production costs).

Mentions on Nio call: Tesla 8, Model 3 13, Model Y 11, Model X 3.