Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

I don't know, but I'd guess they're going to bring in $130 million+ from people buying AP and FSD now (that it has more functionality).

Agreed. This really is a wildcard for 2019Q1 revenue. Tesla has lots of unbooked revenue in the bank from past sales of FSD (for the features they haven't delivered yet). By moving the dividing line between EAP and FSD (ie: switching NoA from EAP to FSD), they can in effect unlock some of that revenue. Good move.

Together with banked ZEV credits, it could be enough to make Tesla show a 'tiny profit' in 2019Q1. In fact, I'm quite sure they will, and in all Quarters going forward. No Equity raise needed.

Cheers!

 

[RFernatt]

I'vd said this before, but due to an extremely well-documented human bias, people will tolerate massively higher failure rates from humans than they will from robots. At least two orders of magnitude worse. Nobody really seems to know why, but it's a fact of human nature and we have to deal with it.

So, given two options:
-- A robot in charge, where 1 person dies for every 1,000,000 instances
-- A human in charge, where 100 people die for every 1,000,000 instances

People will collectively choose to have the human in charge. :shrug: It is what it is. Musk has made some statements indicating that he understands this.

My point is "better than a human driver" is irrelevant legislatively.

You can get around this psychology by only offering "driver assist" features, leaving the human clearly in charge.

With the potential for great societal benefit, I believe the federal government should shield manufacturers that follow the established rules and own up to any problems promptly when there are issues. The feds do something similar with the Vaccine Injury Compensation Program as a "no fault system designed to compensate individuals, or families of individuals, who have been injured by childhood vaccines".

Vaccines offer such societal benefit that allowing companies that develop and manufacture such vaccines to be sued out of existence or shy away from developing useful vaccines because of fear of litigation would not be in the best interest of society. Do the life and cost savings to society from automated vehicles rise to that level?

BTW, I also think all pharmaceuticals should be handled in the same way. If a company follows the rules, gets FDA approval, and owns up to anything they discover after the fact quickly and do not willfully try to cover up issues, then I think the maximum awards should be severely capped (5x projected life earnings?). None of this billion dollar award garbage that just drives up the costs for everyone else. If they do try to cover it up or falsified data submitted to an authority, etc., then throw them to the wolves.

 

[jerry33]

Also 30-second battery replacement instead of charging

It worked but no one wanted to pay the price. It should still be an option for vehicles that need to run 24/7.

 

[Cartegena]

"Tesla.com gets 13M monthly website visits versus 1M visits for The international BMW Website | BMW.com , 3M for Mercedes-Benz Luxury Cars: Sedans, SUVs, Coupes and Wagons ,10M for New Cars, Trucks, SUVs & Hybrids | Toyota Official Site (still less). Clearly future of ordering cars is Tesla and it is online! "

Ray Dargham on Twitter

Ray may be rationalizing a bit to support his conclusion. Most serious U.S. car buyers visit the local dealers' websites in their metropolitan areas to shop prices with the internet sales person (after checking invoiced costs with Edmunds, KBB, etc. for the configurations they are considering.) Visits to the manufacturers' corporate sites are probably mostly to check more detailed information on the configurations' specifications and features.

I've visited multiple times 3 of the 4 Tesla's physical locations in our area (one a storefront in a multi-story mall, another a store in an upscale shopping district and the third a service center with a display/waiting area in the front--the fourth is a service center on the far other side of the metropolitan area) I've also visited a service center with display area in another large city. The two service centers were like small OEM dealers without much (if any) of a Parts Department (mainly apparel with logos) and no rows of late-model trade-ins. Most dealers around here out-source collision repair work, probably because of the vapor and liquid emission treatment systems and frame-bending equipment required. Tesla seems to be expanding it in-house collision repair capabilities.

There are trade-offs to both selling approaches, but mega, single brand dealership locations are long gone.

 

[Cobbler]

Audi won't even talk price on their Q4 EV prototype and it already has worse specs in both range and acceleration........0 to 60 - 6 seconds lol. I thought i misread that at first lol

I suspect the EV line from Audi is deceiving. They've invested a lot of money in a hydrogen platform together with Hyundai group.
Since the big air intakes in the front are still present (and bad for efficiency in battery powered vehicles), I suspect we'll see the same models with Hydrogen powered drivelines soon

 

[KarenRei]

It worked but no one wanted to pay the price. It should still be an option for vehicles that need to run 24/7.

Indeed, they had it right next to a Supercharger. Everyone just used the Supercharger.

 

[humbaba]

I'vd said this before, but due to an extremely well-documented human bias, people will tolerate massively higher failure rates from humans than they will from robots. At least two orders of magnitude worse. Nobody really seems to know why, but it's a fact of human nature and we have to deal with it.

So, given two options:
-- A robot in charge, where 1 person dies for every 1,000,000 instances
-- A human in charge, where 100 people die for every 1,000,000 instances

People will collectively choose to have the human in charge. :shrug: It is what it is. Musk has made some statements indicating that he understands this.

My point is "better than a human driver" is irrelevant legislatively.

You can get around this psychology by only offering "driver assist" features, leaving the human clearly in charge.

No disagreement from me there. And I think you know I'm an FSD skeptic.

Assuming that Tesla actually achieves five nines I think the hard part will be convincing regulators that they have in fact done so. But if they can convince them I believe that it is so much better than a human driver (I think at least two orders of magnitude) they will acquiesce.

So, IMO, a two part problem: achieving much better than human driver reliability and convincing regulators of this.

In the meantime, I expect to be reaping the benefits of an improving driver assist.

 

[Freder Reeve]

wildcard 2019Q1 revenue. Tesla has lots of non-booked revenue..

I even bought a hat off their store on amazon -- hope it helps!

 

[SpaceCash]

If I was rich I'd probably be buying Jan 2021 calls right now. We're about 12% off a 52 week low with only amazing stuff happening

 

[Pezpunk]

I do. humans are known fallible. Robots run code. If a robot kills someone due to an error, and that error can be corrected with code, then the robot should have had that code to begin with, and the death would not have happened. If it cannot be fixed with code, then fixed mechanically, if not mechanically, then fixed by not having the robot.

Robots run on physics, they don't 'just screw up'. So there is traceable/ correctable/ should have been done culpability (back to fallible humans).

with automation, you cannot remove human fallibility from the equation, because humans built those automated tools (be they software or hardware). expecting 100% infallible code or hardware dooms your plan to automatic failure. proper planning expects and accounts for human error even in automated systems.

 

[JRP3]

I would say the misconception around steroid abuse and fitness is a problem.
To achieve the muscle mass many of these "fitness" icon's have is impossible without some form of "chemical help"

To date the information indicates long term the health of these people suffer.

is advice

Elon doesn't need steroids

Kim Paquette on Twitter

 

[Krugerrand]

Thanks for the information - I just bought it too. I just LOVE EAP (have it on my other M3) and will enjoy testing FSD improvements.

I’m buying it as soon as it shows up on my account. Still not there.

 

[Lessmog]

I am disappointed in Elon for this:
Elon: “No I was playing a fool on Twitter!”

He chooses to use his twitter account as a mouthpiece to speak to the many of us investors, and for him to be sending out misinformation that way is ...well... disappointing.

Change my mind.

Misinformation? He changed his name to “Elon Tusk”. Exactly what information(mis- or otherwise) did you glean from that?!?!

Naive investors might believe that he had turned into an actual elephant?!?

Still might have, I suppose. Could be the reason he only talked to reporters and via a phone call... hmmmm

You mean, like an old-fashioned trunk call?
Sorry, gotta hit&run, still far behind the action

 

[AndyH]

Incorrect. Sweden IS at 0 for Model 3 in February. See here for a full model break down down to cars with a single unit sold.[/URL]

There was a rumour of one delivery on the 28th of February. But the next day 1st of March deliveries officially started. There's still a lot of adminstrative mishaps though. Maybe it was the Swedish clusterf*** in sales that made Elon decide to fire all salesmen.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Also 30-second battery replacement instead of charging

Years ago, Elon demonstrated a 2-min bty swap on stage during one of his Telsa product demos.

The idea of having swappable batteries was shelved for the Model 3, but I have a secret hope: when the 'Maxcell' 200KWh bty pack becomes available for the Model S, you'll be able to buy a battery upgrade for your 2013+ Model S, just as those packs are reaching their 10-year life span.

The Model S/X aluminum chasis should last at least 25 years (no rust). So wouldn't it be great to be driving a new and improved S with up-to-date features (including FSD if its a HW2+ car)?

Remember, Telsa offered a ver 3.0 bty upgrade for Roadster 1 that was a $10K upgrade, but the refreshed car can drive LA=>SFO w/o recharging!

Cheers!

 

[KarenRei]

The NASDAQ realtime quote page updates the page title, so you'll see that in a tab. However it only updates once per minute.

Tesla, Inc. Common Stock (TSLA) Real-Time Stock Quote - NASDAQ.com

Doesn't show up in the tab title for me.

 

[Joe F]

Why is this thread turning into a dumping ground for health care discussions?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Doesn't show up in the tab title for me.

You just have to wait for the page to refresh once. I open it in in a new window, then minimize it. That way I can see min-2-min action with a quick glance.

Here's a look at my taskbar:

Cheers!

 

[Unpilot]

Yahoo has been wonky with real time SP for me today...slow and off by a few minutes.

 

[lklundin]

I think Alpha Hat has an unassailable method for measuring deliveries. They use (probably fuzzy) geolocation of (probably hashed) IMEI numbers from cell phones. The thing is that all Tesla cars are themselves cell phones. This allows Alpha Hat to be able to do something like this: a new IMEI (#X) was first seen in Freemont California, but recently has been located near the Cleveland-Lyndhurst Ohio Tesla Service center. A different IMEI (#Y) that is often seen in Canton Ohio was observed briefly near the Lyndhurst Tesla service center, but is now back in Canton. Also that #X IMEI that first appeared in Freemont is now often located in Canton in close proximity to #Y. Conclusion: a customer in Canton OH, has taken delivery of a New Tesla vehicle. They know the car is new because they can date when it first came on-line in Freemont.

You really can't get any more solid than that.

How do they get access to the geolocation info of the IMEI of both someone's personal cell phone and of a Tesla car?