Model X estimate is 8-12 weeks in CA as well. Interesting.
The fanboy in me wants to endlessly speculate that this is something to do with a refresh. Walking through a few points:
1: Plaid version will have the Structural Pack made from 4680's, and more motors. The necessary redesign of the floorpan facilitates the return of the rear-facing seats with more room than before.
2: Tesla will NOT produce two versions of the Model S simultaneously, in other words, all production will switch away from 18650 to the 4680 Structural Pack.
3: non-Plaid version of refreshed Model S will have more range than Plaid, but that's the only advantage.
4: when will the non-Plaid refreshed version go on sale?
5) how does the Model X fit into all this? To say that the current Model S+X are both "generation 2" vehicles - well, that's true for the drivetrains, but everything above that is different. Model X began deliveries at end of 2015... IMO doesn't really need a major interior or exterior refresh, and certainly not to allow for more space in the rear. There is nothing to stop them from upgrading the Model S floorpan, but leaving the Model X to use 18650 doesn't make a lot of sense, since a) needs more space at the factory to do that and b) 4680 is frikkin' cool and everything should have it, c) the Model X outsells the Model S since it's an SUV. And it's the flagship in some ways. I'm happy to be wrong about a Model X refresh. Another observation is that Tesla's design department has basically "sped up" over the last few years. I was genuinely impressed that they were able to reveal two brand-new models on the same day - that is a tax on your design department, unless they have grown and sped up. And that was 3 years ago. Since then they have created only the Model Y, borrowing many existing Model 3 parts. Perhaps they
can redesign both S and X and launch both body refreshes simultaneously. This certainly saves a lot of assembly line headaches - bye bye 18650 at Fremont, hello mature large car company that can do major refreshes to more than one model simultaneously.
SO -
After a trickle of old-style Model S+X deliveries through much of Q1 2021, Tesla will reveal and begin to deliver the new (and probably only
slightly altered exterior) Model S+X, both with 4680 Structural Packs a Long Range version and a Performance version which is basically an "unlocked Long Range" sort of thing whose motors draw more current. Maybe even a software upgrade will be able to uncork it. Later in 2021... the 3-motor Plaid is revealed. As usual, X wan't go as far or accelerate as fast as S, because... physics. Also there will be a Plaid Model X revealed at the same time as the S, but you cannot order a Plaid X today for Osborning reasons; they have confined the Osborne Effect to Model S for now. We could even say that Tesla would have preferred to say nothing about the Plaid S at Battery Day, but their hand had already been played earlier in the year.
Additional notes: perhaps Tesla said "late 2021" for deliveries of Plaid Model S+X because, on the day of Battery Day, they simply did not know how much time it was going to take to solve 4680 production issues. If things go badly, they can begin deliveries on time - late 2021. But if things go better than badly, or even, "well," they might be able to move ahead with Plaid deliveries earlier in the year - something no-one will criticise them for. Perhaps the signs are pointing towards that. (I
love confirmation bias /sarcasm)
We should look for clues like "downtime at the factory" or "reduced numbers of employee cars in the parking lot" and those other clues that indicate switchovers like Twitter posts from @greentheonly. Finally... if the Structural Pack is everything I understand it's supposed to be, there could be cast pieces at front and rear of the battery for the new S+X. Perhaps our drone pilots look for different shapes getting cast?
