Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Johnny Ma]

For me, figuring it out is easy. Here is the decision tree:

Do you need cash now?
--No. Then HODL Tesla shares.
--Yes. Then borrow cash and HODL Tesla shares.

I suspect that folks tempted to sell shares now are forgetting two facts:

1) This company is historic. There has never been anything like it, with a combination of...

• genius, workaholic, polymath CEO
• global braintrust of top-1% engineering talent
• corporate mission and other incentives attracting more top talent
• corporate culture driving rapid relentless innovation and improvements
• multiple, huge, accelerating technology leads
• vertical integration and talent/tech sharing with rocket geniuses
• gargantuan addressable markets (global transportation and energy)
• vast untapped or barely tapped market segments (robotaxis, trucking, solar roofs, virtual power-plants)
• vast untapped or barely tapped market regions (China, India, South America, Middle East, Africa)
• doubling product line in the next few years (Cybertruck, Semi, Roadster2, "world cars")
• doubling (or more) production capacity in the next few years (Giga Shanghai, Berlin, Austin)
• unlimited future opportunities for the engineering braintrust (home HVAC, air and underground transport, on Earth and Mars)
• fanatical, evangelical, exponentially growing customer base
• unprecedented social tailwinds (accelerating climate change, growing government incentives)

Bears scoff at the current stock price and the idea that it will 10x again. "That would be a $6 trillion market cap! When has that ever happened?!" Well, several times in history, adjusted for inflation. But Tesla is making history.

2) This stock has turned a corner. HODLers endured 5 years of price stagnation and some gut-wrenching drops. Some folks might be traumatized and think the stock is still risky. But TSLA's future will not be like the past, because...

• major index inclusions are incoming (S&P 500 and 100)
• bond rating upgrades are incoming (if the raters want to be taken seriously)
• at least 15% of available shares are disappearing permanently into index funds
• up to 22% of available shares are disappearing likely permanently into benchmarked funds
• FUD will have no or little effect on those shareholders
• clueless or dishonest analysts will have no or little effect on those shareholders
• Tesla's "fortress balance sheet" now has $20 billion in cash
• all bear theses (unprofitability, inexperience, no demand, competition) have been discredited except excessive valuation
• this last bear thesis will be discredited by the imminent FSD rollout, blowout Q4 earnings, and new products and production capacity coming next year
• Tesla is now sandbagging their guidance to consistently beat expectations

FUD and abusive analysts will continue, but clearly they are losing effect. Volatility may continue, but so will the upward trend. The global market is waking up to TSLA. Usually when picking a stock, you must choose between safety and huge potential. TSLA offers both, in my studied opinion.

WOW. LOVE this post.

Are you me? But way more articulate? It's everything I believe but haven't been able to put into words.

Can you write my thoughts on Dojo, please? I'll get you started... "Dojo as a service is going to be BIG...."

 

[AZRI11]

Toyota to unveil electric car with solid-state battery with 10-min fast-charging next year - Electrek
2021 - really?

They were supposed to reveal this at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. Obviously that has been postponed to next year. This is nowhere near volume production. It's the same old as all the other solid states.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Interesting article on Tesla dissolving PR department

Elon Musk appears immune to criticism as Tesla ignores the media

Attack of the barnacles! Best line: "CNN Business reached out to Tesla for comment for this story but did not receive a response."

 

[PeterJA]

WOW. LOVE this post.

Are you me? But way more articulate? It's everything I believe but haven't been able to put into words.

Can you write my thoughts on Dojo, please? I'll get you started... "Dojo as a service is going to be BIG...."

Right, I forgot about Dojo. Add that to the diversified basket of startups that is Tesla.

 

[kanweg]

Tidbit; Model 3 deliveries in December (10) reached 1553. This could be sufficient for the top spot for the all cars ranking for the full month.

Comparison: in December 2019 12k Model 3 were delivered (right before a substantial change in the BIK rules). Total Model 3 delivered in 2019 was 30199, and this year 5881.

Source. Kentekenradar.nl

 

[StealthP3D]

Interesting article on Tesla dissolving PR department

Elon Musk appears immune to criticism as Tesla ignores the media

Thanks for the article! It mentioned Tesla had 1.6 million subscribers to it's Youtube channel. I realized I was not one of them which made me think others here haven't subscribed either.

I subscribed but it was still stuck at 1.6 million!

Link here in case there are other laggards out there:

Tesla - YouTube

 

[CyberDutchie]

Did I do this right?
View attachment 616776

Like TGIM instead of TGIF

 

[Buckminster]

I've been lurking in other tesla centric communities to survey the land.

So far there is still a huge information discrepancy between this place and them.

It's not really ppl being malicious. Just ppl parroting misinformation with the utmost confidence.

As a test I sometimes parrot things said here and were often met with disbelief and the usual low effort cry of "source"

Might be selfish of me. But I purposefully did not spread the location of this forum cause I enjoy the information advantage.

You are making claims about non-TMC Tesla communities - source?

 

[CorneliusXX]

Jason Yang's latest video is out for GigaShanghai.

In addition to the new structures being built at the end of phase 2 and next to the casting building there appears to be another substantial building going up in the south west corner where the construction administrative buildings were. The temporary buildings have been knocked down and a lot of pilings have been delivered to site. very little room left to grow in the original footprint. Time to take over the watermelon fields.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Jason Yang's latest video is out for GigaShanghai.

In addition to the new structures being built at the end of phase 2 and next to the casting building there appears to be another substantial building going up in the south west corner where the construction administrative buildings were. The temporary buildings have been knocked down and a lot of pilings have been delivered to site. very little room left to grow in the original footprint. Time to take over the watermelon fields.
View attachment 616814

Also we have a model Y cruising along the test track

 

[Dan Detweiler]

A shameless, off topic, weekend post to encourage you all to follow and possibly support our efforts here in Atlanta later today!

Tesla Guinness Record - Miles Through Time Automotive Museum

Dan

 

[OrthoSurg]

For me, figuring it out is easy. Here is the decision tree:

Do you need cash now?
--No. Then HODL Tesla shares.
--Yes. Then borrow cash and HODL Tesla shares.

I suspect that folks tempted to sell shares now are forgetting two facts:

1) This company is historic. There has never been anything like it, with a combination of...

• genius, workaholic, polymath CEO
• global braintrust of top-1% engineering talent
• corporate mission and other incentives attracting more top talent
• corporate culture driving rapid relentless innovation and improvements
• multiple, huge, accelerating technology leads
• vertical integration and talent/tech sharing with rocket geniuses
• gargantuan addressable markets (global transportation and energy)
• vast untapped or barely tapped market segments (robotaxis, trucking, solar roofs, virtual power-plants)
• vast untapped or barely tapped market regions (China, India, South America, Middle East, Africa)
• doubling product line in the next few years (Cybertruck, Semi, Roadster2, "world cars")
• doubling (or more) production capacity in the next few years (Giga Shanghai, Berlin, Austin)
• unlimited future opportunities for the engineering braintrust (home HVAC, air and underground transport, on Earth and Mars)
• fanatical, evangelical, exponentially growing customer base
• unprecedented social tailwinds (accelerating climate change, growing government incentives)

Bears scoff at the current stock price and the idea that it will 10x again. "That would be a $6 trillion market cap! When has that ever happened?!" Well, several times in history, adjusted for inflation. But Tesla is making history.

2) This stock has turned a corner. HODLers endured 5 years of price stagnation and some gut-wrenching drops. Some folks might be traumatized and think the stock is still risky. But TSLA's future will not be like the past, because...

• major index inclusions are incoming (S&P 500 and 100)
• bond rating upgrades are incoming (if the raters want to be taken seriously)
• at least 15% of available shares are disappearing permanently into index funds
• up to 22% of available shares are disappearing likely permanently into benchmarked funds
• FUD will have no or little effect on those shareholders
• clueless or dishonest analysts will have no or little effect on those shareholders
• Tesla's "fortress balance sheet" now has $20 billion in cash
• all bear theses (unprofitability, inexperience, no demand, competition) have been discredited except excessive valuation
• this last bear thesis will be discredited by the imminent FSD rollout, blowout Q4 earnings, and new products and production capacity coming next year
• Tesla is now sandbagging their guidance to consistently beat expectations

FUD and abusive analysts will continue, but clearly they are losing effect. Volatility may continue, but so will the upward trend. The global market is waking up to TSLA. Usually when picking a stock, you must choose between safety and huge potential. TSLA offers both, in my studied opinion.

Another post that will make me buy more TSLA.
Gotta start going back again to the Anonymous Teslaholics.
Will lose my 10 days chip again

 

[Nolimits]

This thread is killing me. Just when I feel like I spent enough couch money now I need to look for under rug money to buy more shares. Wife had enough of me to talking Tesla for years

 

[Johan]

Interesting article on Tesla dissolving PR department

Elon Musk appears immune to criticism as Tesla ignores the media

It's good I think. It's radical. A company with a more than $500 billion market cap that does not have a PR department? Why not? They are after all a company that got to be a $500 billion company without ever advertising (in the traditional sense). PR is just a type of advertising.

I say speak directly to customers, have the CEO be the company's link to the public - in good times and in a crisis - but the CEO then has to be the way Elon is: brutally honest, direct and really knows the ins and outs of the whole thing (everything from the business side, design, technology, R&D, products). But most of all: Let the product and service speak for itself!

The problem is not with Tesla, but with virtually any other company; the CEO doesn't know much about the products and about what goes on on t he factory floor. So they couldn't represent they company publicly. People trust PR spokespeople about as much as they trust lawyers and career politicians, for good reasons!

 

[jerry33]

People like Abbott can spout off about low taxes only because TX is a massive source of US oil & gas.

I'm pretty sure you've never paid property taxes in Texas.

 

[CLK350]

Published this weekend Dec 12-13 in Die Welt - Interview of Elon Musk by Mathias Döpfner. It looks like a follow up remix of his interview at the Axel Springer Award of Dec 1, 2020 (the sleeping at the factory one).

I received that 2 page article, its French version, see attachments. Not sure how much of it is new or not. That this was created for Die Welt weekend edition certainly shows the Germans take Tesla very seriously, not trying to distort or minimize its accomplishments.

The way it starts with the leading question : " can you imagine coming to live here in Europe" and the choice of main illustration of Musk and the caption " What the heart says - that's what is important " are ..interesting.

I looked up Mathias Döpfner, certainly an influential, establishment person in Germany (member of the Steering Committee of the Bilderberg Meetings too, no less ..). Sigh - considering the paucity of support for Elon Musk's enterprises from our own US establishment, this could be depressing, until I remember that's our opportunity to profit from the disconnect.

Quick translation of some key passages - not sure how much news this is
---------

Tesla
"Our objective: 20 Million vehicles each year"

These days, people want durable transportation and electrical vehicles, thinks Elon Musk. "They request clean energy, and age is by no coincidence related to this attitude". The younger people are, the more they are concerned about the environment. As they get older their purchasing decisions can be different from those of their parents. That's the nature of things."

How many vehicles are you planning to sell in the next 10 years?

More than 2 billion cars and trucks are in circulation on our planet and that number only continues to increase. We would like to replace 1% of the worldwide automotive inventory per year. This means about 20 million vehicles per year.

This means the current stock price of Tesla is justified. Nevertheless you once declared that the stock price was too high. Why is that?

The stock market follows a weird logic. It is a little bit like asking a manic depressive to value your company. There are good days and there are bad days, while your company is, itself, fundamentally always the same. In my opinion, does Tesla have a good chance of being worth that much in the future? Yes! And maybe even more.

I have started this more complete translation of the article - feel free to send contributions if you can and I'll add them. The article jpg: .
If anyone has access to the original article that would be great.
The interview(s) must have been conducted in English, written up/ edited in German, then translated into French..

 

[Tslynk67]

As far as end of quarter emails go, this one strikes me as incredibly relaxed.

Agreed, it's not a "we need to work our butts off to hit our target" type of email...

BAF, as they say

 

[dc_h]

They're using wind and solar in Texas, not producing it. And certainly there's nothing in the pipeline to replace the % of state revenue that comes from the oil industry. And then there's the inevitable massive real estate crashes. Houston won't even exist. That's a lot of economic activity and state revenue too.

A quick google and I'm seeing fiscal 2019 was $57.9B in general revenue, $5.6B oil & gas extraction tax. What happens to the $34B in sales tax revenue when oil & gas doesn't employ anyone in Texas?

And all these figures are up 7-17% year-over-year because oil & gas grew so much and the low-tax state attracted people. That all changes pretty much right now.

These are similar to us talking about self driving semi's saving the world when 60% of high school educated males in America making a reasonable wage are truck drivers. We're creating problems no one seems prepared to acknowledge, let alone address.

Look at the overall size of Texas economy. It’s diverse and less reliant on oil and gas than 20 years ago. It’s a pragmatic state. They won’t go sustainable because it’s the right thing to do, but because it’s the profitable way to go.

 

[cusetownusa]

For me, figuring it out is easy. Here is the decision tree:

Do you need cash now?
--No. Then HODL Tesla shares.
--Yes. Then borrow cash and HODL Tesla shares.

I suspect that folks tempted to sell shares now are forgetting two facts:

1) This company is historic. There has never been anything like it, with a combination of...

• genius, workaholic, polymath CEO
• global braintrust of top-1% engineering talent
• corporate mission and other incentives attracting more top talent
• corporate culture driving rapid relentless innovation and improvements
• multiple, huge, accelerating technology leads
• vertical integration and talent/tech sharing with rocket geniuses
• gargantuan addressable markets (global transportation and energy)
• vast untapped or barely tapped market segments (robotaxis, trucking, solar roofs, virtual power-plants)
• vast untapped or barely tapped market regions (China, India, South America, Middle East, Africa)
• doubling product line in the next few years (Cybertruck, Semi, Roadster2, "world cars")
• doubling (or more) production capacity in the next few years (Giga Shanghai, Berlin, Austin)
• unlimited future opportunities for the engineering braintrust (home HVAC, air and underground transport, on Earth and Mars)
• fanatical, evangelical, exponentially growing customer base
• unprecedented social tailwinds (accelerating climate change, growing government incentives)

Bears scoff at the current stock price and the idea that it will 10x again. "That would be a $6 trillion market cap! When has that ever happened?!" Well, several times in history, adjusted for inflation. But Tesla is making history.

2) This stock has turned a corner. HODLers endured 5 years of price stagnation and some gut-wrenching drops. Some folks might be traumatized and think the stock is still risky. But TSLA's future will not be like the past, because...

• major index inclusions are incoming (S&P 500 and 100)
• bond rating upgrades are incoming (if the raters want to be taken seriously)
• at least 15% of available shares are disappearing permanently into index funds
• up to 22% of available shares are disappearing likely permanently into benchmarked funds
• FUD will have no or little effect on those shareholders
• clueless or dishonest analysts will have no or little effect on those shareholders
• Tesla's "fortress balance sheet" now has $20 billion in cash
• all bear theses (unprofitability, inexperience, no demand, competition) have been discredited except excessive valuation
• this last bear thesis will be discredited by the imminent FSD rollout, blowout Q4 earnings, and new products and production capacity coming next year
• Tesla is now sandbagging their guidance to consistently beat expectations

FUD and abusive analysts will continue, but clearly they are losing effect. Volatility may continue, but so will the upward trend. The global market is waking up to TSLA. Usually when picking a stock, you must choose between safety and huge potential. TSLA offers both, in my studied opinion.

post like these make me wish I had more to invest and that my 401k wasn’t limited to just a handful of funds. Also, I will have about $30k available to invest around the end of the year but afraid that we will never see the current price again.

 

[2daMoon]

post like these make me wish I had more to invest and that my 401k wasn’t limited to just a handful of funds. Also, I will have about $30k available to invest around the end of the year but afraid that we will never see the current price again.

If you aren't able to rollover into another account, look into a 401K loan.

Before I crossed the 59.5 threshold I could "borrow" up to 50% of my 401K. There were some insignificant service fees, but all interest and principle paid went back into my 401K and could be automatically deducted on each payday.

Do the math and see if putting the loan money into an Individual account owning TSLA would earn you more than those service fees (practically a no-brainer), and, verify that the repayment deduction won't adversely affect your lifestyle. If all is good, you can have whatever is comfortable, up to half of your 401K, earning money in Tesla in a few days.