They're using wind and solar in Texas, not producing it. And certainly there's nothing in the pipeline to replace the % of state revenue that comes from the oil industry. And then there's the inevitable massive real estate crashes. Houston won't even exist. That's a lot of economic activity and state revenue too.
A quick google and I'm seeing fiscal 2019 was $57.9B in general revenue, $5.6B oil & gas extraction tax. What happens to the $34B in sales tax revenue when oil & gas doesn't employ anyone in Texas?
And all these figures are up 7-17% year-over-year because oil & gas grew so much and the low-tax state attracted people. That all changes pretty much right now.
These are similar to us talking about self driving semi's saving the world when 60% of high school educated males in America making a reasonable wage are truck drivers. We're creating problems no one seems prepared to acknowledge, let alone address.
Your posts are usually pretty informative and well thought out, but this one is just plain wrong. So wrong, on so many fronts.
I lived in TX for 10 years, and have to go back frequently for business. The amount of business in TX that is fossil-fuel related has for the past 18 months been steadily and consistently dropping. And it's been dropping at a much slower pace than it has been replaced with technology (thank you CA), finance (Dallas is actually a large finance hub), and renewables energy generation.
Case in point:
3 years ago I drove my P85 from San Diego to Washington, DC, going through west TX and the heart of the Permian Basin (largest and most accessible oil deposit in the western hemisphere). For at least 250 miles all I saw were oil wells and the interstate was PACKED with oil service workers (easy to identify - all marked trucks).
Fast forward to this fall, when I had to make the same trip. The traffic on the interstate was 1/5th what it was 3 years prior (mostly long-haul trucks). About 1/3 or more of the oil wells were capped off, or not pumping. But interestingly, for about a hundred miles you would see gigantic windmills that were up and running, right along side the old oil wells that were either still pumping or shut off. All around was direct evidence of a massive energy shift, in the HEART of oil country. In the cities I drove through, people were not destitute, they were mostly driving newer autos (big trucks are insanely popular still in TX), the housing was booming, and skyscrapers were still going up in the major cities (Houston, Dallas/Ft. Worth, Austin, San Antonio). This was is stark contrast to states like LA, MS, and AL, which were clearly struggling.
You have drastically underestimated the ability of the people, businesses, and politicians of this state to adjust to the changing economic landscape.
TL,DR version:
TX has an EXTREMELY diversified economy, and the parts of that economy that are growing are growing much faster than the fossil fuel industry is shrinking.