Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cherry Wine]

Read through the posts on the Model SX line shut down. Seems to be an annual thing. The Model 3 and Y have multiple assembly lines and can be updated without shutting down production, so line refreshes affect the entire assembly system. That said, a lot of new tech has been deployed in 3&Y, so a lot of updates are possible without any model refresh. Those changes could increase range close to 500 miles without a battery or major design refresh. Changes beyond line updates and refresh of internals, like the heat pump, are possible as well. They have built a second or third high pressure casting machine and that could be for the S and possible X update. If the casting machine is being used for a model refresh, that would include 4680 batteries and likely significant body updates.
The odds to me of changes are:
Line refresh: 99%. They will definitely update the assembly line and improve production processes.
Significant internals refresh: 65%. Seems likely that the heat pump, wiring harness and other improvements will be deployed. This will improve the car and reduce assembly steps and factory floor space required.
Casting and body refresh: 20%. I think it’s early, plaid listed as available late 2021, so making the plaid body refresh before the plaid spec car seems unlikely. This would be exciting news though and mean the 4680 batteries would be in use already.

I agree with this analysis. I think the extended downtime (beyond typical S/X shutdown) will be used for some upgrades to the line / vehicles, but I think 4680s are unlikely at this point - though as you point out, not outside the realm of possibility.

 

[Christine69420]

Don’t be surprised if he suddenly changes his tune by tomorrow morning. Guy sounds like TSLAQ with all these comparisons. Did Yahoo really have a loyal investor base? 17% float vs 3% float. Speculators have already bought up the required numbers of shares? Yeah no Gary let’s not reason by analogy. This is uncharted territory.

I wonder if he sold a bunch of covered calls for next week and is worried about getting exercised. It is funny to hear him justify his position with random data points.

I'm not a Gary Fan Girl. But I did find the graph in his tweet interesting. And his conclusions. As an indication of how investors not on TMC might reason these days.

 

[StealthP3D]

Other manufactures weren’t even considering EV’s in 2017...

Now Volvo is committing to electrify all models.. Porsche has released models, Volkswagen is outselling Tesla in Europe with the ID.3, Ford has announced $11.5B in spending for EVs and is releasing the Mach E and EV Hummer this year.. the list goes on.

You’re right this isn’t 2017!

Your language gives you away.

Only those manufacturers who see EV's as a huge opportunity will be able to survive the move to EV's. Saying Volvo is "committing to electrify" implies they view it as a responsibility, not the opportunity that it is. Tesla wants to accelerate the transition, the rest want to slow it down (while giving lip service to the inevitable).

With the disparity in attitudes displayed, who do you think will win?

 

[UncaNed]

Yes, I've also been wondering what Citadel might do - they bought all those shares early this year, if I recall well, and have been using them to manipulate the call markets. They could indeed rain on our parade next week as they have been doing all year.

How much trouble could they make? Need we fear a long squeeze?

 

[Stone_Watcher]

Your language gives you away.

Only those manufacturers who see EV's as a huge opportunity will be able to survive the move to EV's. Saying Volvo is "committing to electrify" implies they view it as a responsibility, not the opportunity that it is. Tesla wants to accelerate the transition, the rest want to slow it down (while giving lip service to the inevitable).

With the disparity in attitudes displayed, who do you think will win?

NKLA, Probably

Best of luck to everyone attempting to time the top over the next several weeks.

To everyone else, rest assured that any “top” will be inconsequential in 10 years.

 

[StealthP3D]

A lot of us are pondering what next week will bring. HODL'ers for the show, short term traders for the gains.

Not to state the obvious but, since you raised the point, I'll point out that we're all after the same thing, profits (ignoring any potential motivations, good or bad, that extend beyond the economic),

The primary difference between the profits of a trader and those of a HODL'er are whether the gains are realized gains (and taxed as short term) or unrealized gains. And the amount of gain.

Steadfast, long-term holders of Tesla have consistently made millions over the years since TSLA first went public. ALL of them have done exceedingly well (without exception). The total returns of TSLA traders over the years runs the gamut from exceedingly successful to broke. It's clear to me that the average trader has under-performed (by far) the average long-term holder.

Countering this observation is that 92% of TSLA traders believe they are better than average. This is same 92% that believe they are better than average drivers.

/s

 

[UncaNed]

Is there any chatter/rumors that the X will come with folding rear seats ever, like the 3, S and Y? I might splurge on an X in the future if I could car camp in it...

With the second row seats folded down, there's surprisingly little room left above that in my 5-seat model X. The battery is far below floor level (there's LOTS of Styrofoam under there!), which is far below the bottom of the seat, and the seat cushion and seat back is thick. I've wished for a 2-seat cargo Model XX since I first laid eyes on the prototype.

 

[wipster]

Without FSD my Tesla would still be my favorite car and I’d recommend it to everyone, so I’d say this statement takes it a bit too far. FSD just takes “best” and makes it even better.

(My wife doesn’t use Autopilot but LOVES our Tesla!)

I know what you mean. My best friend is a huge Tesla fan, and wants a 3, Y, or S badly but can't afford it. However this is a guy that doesn't even use cruise control, let alone AP and definitely not FSD. He just enjoys driving and I seriously doubt he would use a fraction of the awesome tools available in a Tesla.

Honestly, I'm considering buying him a 3 or a Y when the SP hits 1K... you might think it's a waste, but it would be worth it just to see the joy in his face when driving his new toy.

Never forget the satisfaction from a corner well taken or the thrill of acceleration coming out of it. That in itself would be worth the price of a Tesla for a lot of folks. Why have your car drive you when it's so much fun driving it yourself?

 

[Artful Dodger]

I wonder if Tesla has any casting machines available in Fremont to allocate to S&X. From @gabeincal 's videos there are only two and I doubt one would be enough to support MY production.

Does anyone know the unit capacity of the casting machines, or whether the forms can be switched for different models in a reasonable period of time?

Yeah, I've speculated about this here previously, on Sep 18, 2020: (you 'Liked' it)

Now Models S/X is interesting. Since they have to redesign the rear subframe for the twin-mtr layout, it makes sense to also simplify production techniques to die casting at the same time. The alternative would be to spend even more money on implementing a new stamping/welding system for S/X and we already know its cheaper overall to die-cast.

It seems obvious that the smaller casting machine(s) used for first production of the 2-part Model Y rear subframe would now be repurposed for the S/X. With their new dual motor arrangement, this may in fact be optimal for easier mass production on S/X.

At any rate, the capacities are similar: Model Y initial production was approx. 1.7K-ish per week (Feb/Mar '20). Model S/X Production capacity would be ideal at 1.9K/wk or 90K/yr, so I think Telsa is well covered for S/X casting tooling.

On Sep 18, I also called the Plaid reveal as the "1 more thing" for Bty Day, We got the Willow Springs video, which was reasonable given social distancing requirements. We also learned the price, and Tesla opened the order page for Plaid S. It's imminent , IMO.

Cheers!

 

[StealthP3D]

With the second row seats folded down, there's surprisingly little room left above that in my 5-seat model X. The battery is far below floor level (there's LOTS of Styrofoam under there!), which is far below the bottom of the seat, and the seat cushion and seat back is thick. I've wished for a 2-seat cargo Model XX since I first laid eyes on the prototype.

That would be a cool vehicle (albeit somewhat pricey for what you get). Basically, a luxury mid-sized truck/cargo van. Additional development work could be limited to stripping the seats out and developing an innovative load restraining system. As I think about this, it would probably cost about the same to manufacture so it could not come with a lower price if Tesla wanted to maintain the same margins. But it would likely expand the market a bit and create some good publicity.

 

[Christine69420]

With the second row seats folded down, there's surprisingly little room left above that in my 5-seat model X. The battery is far below floor level (there's LOTS of Styrofoam under there!), which is far below the bottom of the seat, and the seat cushion and seat back is thick. I've wished for a 2-seat cargo Model XX since I first laid eyes on the prototype.

Check out this thread:

Removing Middle Seat from 7-seat Configuration

 

[joh01652]

Soo, about this coming week...

New 'christmas release' of Tesla software in our cars?
Wide-release beta FSD in said software?
New model S&X released on website available for Q1?

Anything else I'm not thinking of, that can be an upside surprise to the street, shareholders or even to us?

Gosh, $TSLA is never boring.

Maybe a credit upgrade? I would really like that for Christmas.

Wouldn't be a surprise to us, but would probably give Chanos and the gang a stroke.

 

[joh01652]

Huh? I camp in my X all the time. The rear seats fold down flat (5 seat version).

Yeah, sorry, boy do I feel dumb. A quick glance at YouTube MX camping videos put that concern to rest. Thanks

 

[EVMeister]

Yeah, sorry, boy do I feel dumb.

Just remember, you're a Tesla investor. So you automatically qualify as "not dumb" regardless of how you might feel.

 

[Johnny Ma]

Just remember, you're a Tesla investor. So you automatically qualify as "not dumb" regardless of how you might feel.

Wrong.

Proof by counterexample: me.

 

[Hytra]

Apperently, there is a leaker who has been right before said that there was a refresh coming for model S and X. From a month ago.
It was on reddit, but was deleted : Model S range and interior update imminent?

In response to a user asking about when an X refresh would be available: “Q1 unless they start preorders early”

In response to more questions about timeline of plaid and S refresh - “The refresh coming early will not (Won’t have Roadrunner cells). So it all depends on the actual delivery of ‘plaid’. Based on the images on the site and the ‘announced delivery date’, I believe they are bluffing on the delivery time line. That’s not what the car looks like. The car in the video is not the interior nor the exterior of the next gen. Stats announced match a variant of what I know is scheduled for Q1, which is what makes me suspicious on their delivery timeline.”

In response to another question about whether S refresh will happen: “yes, scheduled for early next year”

In response to question asking what the point of plaid is and how it’s possible without new batteries: “A whole new carbon power train both front and rear”

His/her response to a user asking how the 520 range was possible without new motors, batteries, or pack design: “completely agree with you. 520 range was a surprise. But like I’ve said, the variants I’ve seen are 100 kWh. We’ll see what happens. They (Tesla) may have changed plans after the Lucid announcement”

Response to user asking about date for 3 row Y: “Keep an eye out on the design studio in November”

Response to a user asking what refresh would be coming next year: “interior and exterior”

Response to someone asking about lighting and display count in refresh: “Display count will not decrease.... but it will not stay at 2”

 

[Nurkbonis]

The really interesting thing is there were a few posts on the teslamotors subreddit aksing where he went (he deleted his account.) All the posts asking about him were deleted.

I believe this is everything he leaked about the refresh:

\- Visually, the S will look like a mixture of the current S and the new Roadster

\- More than two interior screens

\- Same acceleration/range specs as Plaid (this confused the leaker because he was not privy to Plaid S before it was unveiled and wasn't sure how that would affect the refreshed S he or she knew about.)

\- Coming in Q1

This line shut down seems to all but confirm the refresh is coming. Would be epic if Tesla opened up orders for the new S this week. Stonks...!

Apperently, there is a leaker who has been right before said that there was a refresh coming for model S and X. From a month ago.
It was on reddit, but was deleted : Model S range and interior update imminent?

 

[adiggs]

With the second row seats folded down, there's surprisingly little room left above that in my 5-seat model X. The battery is far below floor level (there's LOTS of Styrofoam under there!), which is far below the bottom of the seat, and the seat cushion and seat back is thick. I've wished for a 2-seat cargo Model XX since I first laid eyes on the prototype.

I'd switch to a 2 seater Model X! I realize that's not the target market, but the very idea of all that space in back - I'd put that to use, and ability to carry extra people isn't that important (more than 2 people in the car maybe 6 times in 3 years).


But big cargo space - mmmm.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Discussion about a possible Model S and X refresh is fine, as long as it is general and touches on Tesla's sales and financials. Personal preferences for changes (like the number of seats) do not belong in this thread.

 

[FS_FRA]

Germany is starting a strong lockdown from next Wednesday until minimum January 10th.
It's likely that car dealers have to close. (They had to close back in March, but were allowed to open sooner than other businesses).

Home-delivery could still be legal.It's also possible that Tesla could shift cars to other countries.

On Monday or Tuesday the laws get approved by the different state parliaments (16). Maybe there are different restrictions for car dealers by state.

From Frankfurt Chamber of Commerce (IHK):

The retail sector will be closed from 16 December 2020 until 10 January 2021, with the exception of food retailers, weekly food markets, direct marketers of food, pick-up and delivery services (food), beverage markets, health food shops, baby shops, pharmacies, medical supplies stores, drugstores, opticians, hearing aid dispensers, petrol stations, gas stations, bicycle repair shops, banks and savings banks, post offices, dry cleaners, laundries, newspaper sales, pet shops, feed markets, Christmas tree sales and wholesale. The sale of non-food products in the retail food trade which are not part of daily needs may also be restricted and may under no circumstances be extended. The sale of pyrotechnics before New Year's Eve will be generally prohibited this year.

Unless Tesla can claim to be wholesale, then they need to close their stores. Not sure how contactless home delivery might be viewed?