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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Not to say there won't be swings and up/down wild swings this upcoming week, but I seriously doubt the usual "capping" we've seen in the past will be a factor at all. You need low volume, especially on the buy side to effectively cap. Next week will be anything but low volume.
Really, any news that comes out tonight or during next week will have zero impact on how the stock trades all of next week and the week after.....minus Tesla filing for bankruptcy. The trading is purely going to be based on index buying volume, front running selling volumes, and options.
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@PKOttawa found an investment you might prefer:
Meet The Fiskers, The Billionaire Power Couple Taking On Tesla
Meet The Fiskers, The Billionaire Power Couple Taking On Tesla
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
I am answering because I _think_ you are well intended. Typical trolls don't give Tesla as much credit as you've done.
Having said that, and me being Engineer myself (well, VP Eng.), and observing Tesla for 6 years now, I feel you are very wrong in not recognizing Tesla's advantages. You seem to be relatively new, and haven't had experience of working in a dramatic, well run startup that grows 100x-1000x.
It's likely you will need time to understand Tesla. In 2015, after thousands of hours of research, I've concluded tesla will slay the rest of the auto industry, and that is now foregone conclusion. I've gone 100% (and more) TSLA at the time. I am nowadays even more certain Tesla is unstoppable related to other industries, as momentum, brand and talent they have is order of magnitude greater than their 'competition'. Honestly, government don't see it yet, but they better start thinking about breaking Tesla up before it eats several industries... How? I have some insights, but I don't really need to know - there are gays and gals smarter than me at Tesla, thinking and working on it every day...
No idea when the 4680's are coming out, but some food for thought:
There's a ton of job postings related to battery cell manufacturing in Berlin. This is makes sense as the first product (Model Y) will use them from the start. I believe we expect first production to possibly happen before Q3 2021, correct?
It would seem unlikely that Berlin Model Y's would being using 4680's before Fremont S/X. I would guess end of Q1.
Another observation - there are way fewer cell job posts for Austin. This makes sense as Model Y there will likely be using 2170s for now, and they only will start ramping up battery cell hires within some timeframe of Cybertruck production (6-9 months?).
There's a ton of job postings related to battery cell manufacturing in Berlin. This is makes sense as the first product (Model Y) will use them from the start. I believe we expect first production to possibly happen before Q3 2021, correct?
It would seem unlikely that Berlin Model Y's would being using 4680's before Fremont S/X. I would guess end of Q1.
Another observation - there are way fewer cell job posts for Austin. This makes sense as Model Y there will likely be using 2170s for now, and they only will start ramping up battery cell hires within some timeframe of Cybertruck production (6-9 months?).
Don't expect TSLA share price volatility to go down for a long time.
And S&P500 inclusion won't make it better, it might make it worse!
Why?
I think people confound S&P500 inclusion as causing stability in companies' valuations, when in fact it's probably just correlated. Companies that join S&P aren't usually growing so fast, so by the time they make it, they are stably profitable, not growing too quickly, so everyone has a relatively clear framework for how to value them. The price doesn't go crazy.
Tesla doesn't follow that. Yes they are increasing profitability, so the downside risk is less, but the sheer growth potential is still huge and the massive amount of upside will still cause huge swings in stock price as perceptions change.
As for inclusion, I did this thought experiment that maybe y'all can poke holes in. Imagine funds had to buy 90% of the free float. Heck, say there was only a million shares available for trading. That means share price / valuation would be dependent of a handful of people and could have even bigger swings. No way that would reduce volatility!
So maybe Tesla stock will be even more volatile until it stops rapidly growing and disrupting trillion dollar markets.
When's that going to happen?
And S&P500 inclusion won't make it better, it might make it worse!
Why?
I think people confound S&P500 inclusion as causing stability in companies' valuations, when in fact it's probably just correlated. Companies that join S&P aren't usually growing so fast, so by the time they make it, they are stably profitable, not growing too quickly, so everyone has a relatively clear framework for how to value them. The price doesn't go crazy.
Tesla doesn't follow that. Yes they are increasing profitability, so the downside risk is less, but the sheer growth potential is still huge and the massive amount of upside will still cause huge swings in stock price as perceptions change.
As for inclusion, I did this thought experiment that maybe y'all can poke holes in. Imagine funds had to buy 90% of the free float. Heck, say there was only a million shares available for trading. That means share price / valuation would be dependent of a handful of people and could have even bigger swings. No way that would reduce volatility!
So maybe Tesla stock will be even more volatile until it stops rapidly growing and disrupting trillion dollar markets.
When's that going to happen?
You mean other than Elon saying that they would? Even using Fremont 4680s to do it.
LOL. Did he explicitly say that or just implied by saying Plaid ready until end of next year?
He said Fremont 4680s would be used in Berlin to get things going.
IMO it is more likely Austin will be using 4680s for the start of Model Y production.
There are a limited number of 2170s, so it is hard to expand production volumes unless Panasonic can add more lines in Nevada.
My guess is they will advertise cell positions for Austin in the new year. Hiring this time of year doesn't make much sense.
Found this over on Reddit in the comments section by someone who claims to work on the S/X battery line. Looks potentially legit, Plaid staying with the 18650 cells.
https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotor...c_reporting_model_sx_lines_shutting_down_for/
https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotor...c_reporting_model_sx_lines_shutting_down_for/
Words of HABIT
Active Member
Technically speaking, I think a structural pack just needs steel cans for strength, in fact more steel cans may be stronger.
A structural pack will more than offset any additional weight from the steel.
My understanding is the cells need to be tabless to enable cooling from the top & bottom instead of the sides in a structural pack. I don’t think there are any plans for tabless 18650 but who knows.
Does that qualify Warren Buffet the opposite
When Buffett goes, he put in his will that the money going to his wife would be 90% index funds and 10% bonds.
Buffett and his heirs are owning TSLA whether they like it or not.
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