Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FrankSG]

I dont think they own enough shares to satisfy all demand, but they could have been sitting on these shares since August. So if I could make 30-40% by holding since the run-up in August, that isn't a benefit for a front runner?

I mean why would they purposely agree to keep it at $640. If it goes higher, that just benefits them, because they can sell for more on Friday.

 

[gabeincal]

Just a quick service announcement... after 2-3 years of teasing a store in Hungary, Tesla started hiring for their Budapest location. Finally, Hungarian Tesla owners won't need to drive (or get a trailer to get transported to) to Austria for service.

About the size of the market here:

• Country of 10 million people
• 3,5-ish million passenger cars in circulation
• 11k EVs and 13k hybrids in the fleet
• 150k-ish new car sales per year; majority is corporate fleets; BMW is around 900 cars per year for example
• 2k BEV + 1k PHEV sold last year, but now there is a more generous government incentive
• Tesla falls outside the threshold of the incentive (grant of 7k EUR for up to 31k retail price; grant of 1.4k EUR for 31k-42k retail price. Cheapest Model 3 is 52k EUR gross)

MY PEOPLE ARE GETTING TESLAS!!

 

[kanweg]

Dear S&P Index Funds:

Um, the clock is ticking. You might want to start buying.

well, I don’t know how the three days are counted. If it is three working days before and not including the day that Tesla is included or three days before including the day that the SP gets getermineerd, then the buying would start only Wednesday?

I don’t know what I’m talking about but on this board I learned that this is one of the three hardest things of programming.

 

[StealthP3D]

I am as invested in Tesla as almost any here, in terms of % of one’s investments in TSLA.
I wasn’t talking about “next Tesla”, but someone “next to” Tesla, and I expect them to be a distant second.
I am not expecting Tesla to capture even 50% of the market, let alone 100%. I believe we (all here) have a strong consensus on this.

I think it's possible that Tesla captures over 50% of the EV market, not the entire auto market. But they can do exceedingly well with only 20% of the EV market.

 

[OrthoSurg]

I made this future stock prediction with data, and a few assumptions.

View attachment 617920

Gordon Johnson doesn’t agree, TSLA can’t go up and can’t go back in time to go further up before reaching climax

 

[Knightshade]

well, I don’t know how the three days are counted. If it is three working days before and not including the day that Tesla is included or three days before including the day that the SP gets getermineerd, then the buying would start only Wednesday?

I don’t know what I’m talking about but on this board I learned that this is one of the three hardest things of programming.

For roughly the 9,892th time-

Each fund has its own rules.

They are often different from one fund to another

SPY, specifically, for example allows buying + or - 3 business days of the inclusion date.

Some are 7 days.

Some have broader rules than that.


But if one was looking to minimize index error, which is a stated goal of most index funds, then buying at the very last moment before inclusion (so late Friday) would be what you want to do, assuming you believe you can get enough shares then.

And IIRC historically that's what usually happens (though historically it's not this volume of shares needed)

 

[dc_h]

The Indonesia news had me interested in the potential market value for Tesla to invest in the country. They seem to be investing in their future pretty wisely. The economy is about 40% of India, but per capita GDP is almost double. They spend about 10% as much as India on defense (don't have Pakistan & China on their border) and nearly double on education and health care. Their natural resources have great value, but most countries waste this, as the value is often held by small groups with little vested interest in greater good and the profits go to rent seekers and corrupt political cronies. This has been an issue in Indonesia, but they seem on the right track. If Tesla built a major battery production site here, it could supply the China market and other markets and probably be an IP safer place to deploy new technology. Auto sales are not big, so I don't think they'd want to build cars until they have a Model 2 type compact car or mini commercial vehicle.

*Sorry, wrong URL on first post.
Tesla (TSLA) is considering a battery factory in Indonesia, says local officials - Electrek


President of Indonesia invites SpaceX to assess the country as a potential launch site

 

[FrankSG]

Frank, any theories why we're being held to $640 so hard? Not understanding what's so special about this value.

I don't think we're being held down at ~$640, It seems more of the same as yesterday to me. I'd guess that there is once again an extremely careful buyer, trying to scoop up a handful of shares here and there as cheaply as possible.

As to why this buyer (if a correct assessment) is being so extremely careful? This is some real speculation, but perhaps he isn't desperate and doesn't need that many shares, or perhaps he knows it could easily squeeze and that's why he's being extra careful.

It's really hard to guess exactly what is going on at any one moment, and why things are happening the way they are. It'll be much easier to look back in a few days or next week.

 

[chrsk]

Almost 13 million shares traded in the first 60 minutes. Relatively low volume continues.

 

[dww12]

So I bought some YOLO 810 calls for 78c. For all the 800+ predictions in the spreadsheet it seem like a “logical” bet.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Even Enzo Ferrari himself famously said that the Jaguar E-type was the most beautiful car he's ever seen. They did suck at making cars then and it's good to see their tradition continues. LOL. The new F-type is a decent car, but plagued with reliability issues and so is the rest of the JLR line up.

Elon should convert that E-Type to an electric powertrain so he can get rid of most of the problems. Imagine a car as lite as the e-type with the plaid powertrain!

Yup, already been done.

Dan

 

[dc_h]

I mean why would they purposely agree to keep it at $640. If it goes higher, that just benefits them, because they can sell for more on Friday.

There could be some exception to this with related funds. Could a Fidelity fund preload Tesla and sell to their index funds this week. Still market prices, but they could prearrange sales on day 1 after arranging after market on day 0. I agree they can't cap at 640, more likely a lot of holders are willing to sell at various points on the way up.

 

[Artful Dodger]

"Some assumptions?" That's the understatement of the year isn't it?

You say "assumptions" like it is possible to build a micro-economics model without them. Instead, folks are operating on "gut feelings", supported by memes reasoning by analogy.

I can sort of agree on the model of these two curves existing and having an intersection which ends up being where the market, all things considered, price the shares, but how on earth did you calculate the slope of the curves. And why are they straight lines and not some more complex function???

It is a curve. Price elasticity factor is about 16% dShares/dPrice. What slope would make you happy?

Since you're not asking to see the model equations, here's another list of assumptions you may recognise (including constants used in the model except for price elasticity factor which is my original art). Note that my assumptions (arrived at independently) were in close agreement with these constants, although my model assumed a $75B increase in demand due to Index purchases, and Tracking purchases held constant during the S&P freeze period (Dec 9-18):

Note that my model attempts to identify an equilibrium SP where supply equals demand. It is not an attempt to predict a transient SP during any S&P Addition runup (we long-term investors are funny like that).

 

[M|S|M MYP]

And does this change your expectation on the peak SP either this week or the next?
IIRC, at some point after the inclusion announcement, you were seeing $800+ as very likely?

Reading your posts, it seems that you are 'extremely' concerned about the short-term movement in $TSLA SP. If you are that worried about it, why not buy some puts as insurance? The consensus is that $TSLA will dip after the inclusion....is that what you are worried about?

 

[ggr]

For roughly the 9,892th time-

Each fund has its own rules.

They are often different from one fund to another

SPY, specifically, for example allows buying + or - 3 business days of the inclusion date.

Some are 7 days.

Some have broader rules than that.


But if one was looking to minimize index error, which is a stated goal of most index funds, then buying at the very last moment before inclusion (so late Friday) would be what you want to do, assuming you believe you can get enough shares then.

And IIRC historically that's what usually happens (though historically it's not this volume of shares needed)

To be an S&P index fund, you have to obey their rules, which specify three days before, day of inclusion, three days after. (Trading days.) If you are a benchmark fund but not an index fund, you make your own rules... but then have to comply with them, whatever they are.

 

[Criscmt]

I think it's possible that Tesla captures over 50% of the EV market, not the entire auto market. But they can do exceedingly well with only 20% of the EV market.

I share your view on Tesla doing exceedingly well with only 20% EV market, I won’t be surprised if the share ends up being much higher.
My point was about significant (very likely majority) market share taken by other players (not one second player, but many players)

“50% of the EV market, not the entire auto market”
Can you share which technology you expect autos to have besides EV?

 

[StealthP3D]

"Vision, evolved", "Re-think everything", "The next chapter"

Jesus, is there a special dictionary they select from full of vapid banal phrases?

Of course. They don't have to start from scratch every time - they just grab their marketing dictionary and pick and choose.

 

[petit_bateau]

Prince Charles already did that, and you can buy one too from JLR.

Yes, he has a habit of high maintenance cars and high maintenance wives.

Roll on the republic.

dspp/pb

 

[StealthP3D]

I share your view on Tesla doing exceedingly well with only 20% EV market, I won’t be surprised if the share ends up being much higher.
My point was about significant (very likely majority) market share taken by other players (not one second player, but many players)

“50% of the EV market, not the entire auto market”
Can you share which technology you expect autos to have besides EV?

That would be existing ICE technology.

 

[corduroy]

So I bought some YOLO 810 calls for 78c. For all the 800+ predictions in the spreadsheet it seem like a “logical” bet.

You must really like living on the the edge!