dc_h
Active Member
discussed previously, the thought is they are calibrating the cameras to improve performance.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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dc_h
Active Member
I think 1 million is possible, as a stretch at least, but the 523K for Shanghai seems high. The Model Y is producing, but not likely more than 1000 to 2000 weekly in Q1. I did understand that MIC Y is supposed to be double the 3, so maybe it will ramp up faster and higher than MIC 3 by end of year.
Hope I'm wrong.
Tesla is going all out on SCs this year. Check your map for anything near your location : Find Us | Tesla
Under promise, over deliver is something Tesla has finally learned.
I think you're right to push skepticism on the 2021 numbers, and I hope that skepticism is something the broader market absorbs. Guidance of 40-50% YoY growth would be crazy and very well may be an under promise. The over deliver of 1M just might send the final shockwave that wakes everyone up to Tesla's true potential. Or not. People like being wrong year after year.
dc_h
Active Member
Teslarati article has some crazy math though. Shanghai has capacity (doesn't mean it is making that much, just that is the potential) and at the end they say the plant will make:
China Industrial Securities forecasts that Tesla China sales could amount to 180,000 Model 3 units and 245,000 Model Y cars this year. Overall, Tesla China Model Y sales for 2021 are expected to break down as follows: 10,000 vehicles sold in Q1 to mid Q2, 12,000-13,000 units by the end of Q2, and 15,000 cars by Q3 and Q4.
Basically the math doesn't add up. The quarterly ramp implies they would need to make 200,000 MIC Y's in Q4. I think they will make 250,000+ MIC M3 and probably about 100,000 to 150,000 MIC MY this year. If Fremont ramps up a bit, they should make about 550,000 cars, unless they are able or need to move some Y to Austin in Q4, to make room for Roadster or other products. Without Boring tunnels to improve logistics, I don't think Fremont can grow much more. Add in 50,000 MIG MY and that is about 900,000. If they hit it great, if they don't, they should still be close to 1.2 to 1.5 million production rate going into 2022. Phase 2 Berlin will be in stride and likely a Phase 2 Austin and a new plant or phase in China, as well as Semi & Cybertruck production. 2021 should be good, but 22 should be insane.
Tesla Gigafactory Shanghai reaches 8k/week production capacity: study
LN1_Casey
Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
Hawaii has less "Pending" Superchargers than they did before. There use to be two on Oahu, now it's dropped to only one.
I think this is the first time there is a more definitive time than just a vague year, but I also don't trust it. It's been "coming soon" for the last few years.
Not sure if it was posted here earlier but ARK did sell last Thursday.
More specifically, I believe Tesla has learned that now is the time to start under promising and over delivering.
It's awfully curious to me that the company used to miss its deadlines, but generated a lot of buzz with its hyper-optimistic announcements, and then when it became well known that Tesla was often late in its promises, it suddenly started under promising and over delivering, which creates the new buzz where (finally) something like a P&D delivery beat is followed by a rise in the SP.
It's tempting for me to weave this information into a narrative that appeals to my biases (as I may have just now). However, the timing of it all is so convincing that I can't help but believe it's evidence is brilliant management at the highest level.
new_sneakers
Member
I see that at least one supercharger (Joliet, IL)has 2022 as its expected date.
Edit: there is at least one more marked 2022. I won’t post more updates though
Mokuzai
Member
Well thanks to Twitter I now know how to talk about my TSLA position to friends.
I’m “comfortable” with my gains in TSLA.
https://twitter.com/ashleym14890553/status/1346261275580325890?s=21
I’m “comfortable” with my gains in TSLA.
https://twitter.com/ashleym14890553/status/1346261275580325890?s=21
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
I see that at least one supercharger (Joliet, IL)has 2022 as its expected date.
Edit: there is at least one more marked 2022. I won’t post more updates though
That should make Jake and Elwood happy.
lafrisbee
Active Member
Old News from last week or more.
My theory is they are testing Tesla tech, and it would be stupid to test tech with the same tech.
lafrisbee
Active Member
Early this mornign I posted I thought it could be Benchmark (I called em index funds and had to go back and add an "EDIT") that waited out the P&D numbers hoping that Tesla would come in below expectations and they could buy on the dip. Now that is not possible so they may be doing the buying because of what you stated.
Two weeks ago youtuber Dave Lee suggested Elon form a holding company for all his companies. Elon replied “ Good idea.” On Dec 27th he flew to Lanai to seek advice fron Larry Ellison for something. Probably unrelated, but if Elon did create holding company X, what would that do to Tesla stock?
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1341801143631028225?s=21
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1343619610617077760?s=21
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1341801143631028225?s=21
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1343619610617077760?s=21
jhm
Well-Known Member
Trying to be cool like Google.
lafrisbee
Active Member
The AH right now is $3668 pre-split.
yeah, it is.
yeah, it is.
Sorry if this has been posted already but toilet boy is now shorting ARK?
Stanphyl Capital December 2020: Short ARKK - ValueWalk
What a clown. That is perhaps the dumbest move of all time. Why doesn't he just short the S&P
Stanphyl Capital December 2020: Short ARKK - ValueWalk
What a clown. That is perhaps the dumbest move of all time. Why doesn't he just short the S&P
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
The solution now seems obvious. Tesla should buy out their competitors and then just shut them down. Boom. Only Teslas exist. 100% market share and stock does another 10x.
I know you were joking but that would be a good example of anti-competitive behavior. A few people were worried about Tesla becoming a monopoly and getting broken up. That is the kind of behavior that could cause a legal monopoly to become judged an illegal monopoly.
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