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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
corduroy
Active Member
Well, we should have guessed that even the S&P inclusion effect on TSLA is on Elon Musk time. Always deliver slightly later than predicted - but when they do deliver- it exceeds all expectations
I just made the mistake of checking the prices on those Jan 15th 700's I sold when I thought the S&P was "over".
"almost"... I don't think that word means what you think it means.almost 800
Mike Smith
Active Member
At the grocery store he doesn't even have to look at the prices.
That was fun. Well, to quote the richest man in the world..."back to work".
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
I just made the mistake of checking the prices on those Jan 15th 700's I sold when I thought the S&P was "over".
Roll em higher close to expiration, make more $$$ off them, and buy shares with the premiums. That's what I keep doing.
SunCatcher
Member
Words of HABIT
Active Member
Elon's response is very telling. Money has never been the driver for Musk, only needed as a means to transform transportation with sustainable energy and energy storage, and multi-planet space travel and development to preserve the human race. Elon's newfound wealth will likely drive him to work harder, if that is even possible. For those that no longer need to work for a living due to the shared Tesla wealth, lets learn to live for working to make this World a better place.
SP can't drop on factors that haven't been priced in. If FSD has been priced in, we'd be in the trillions right now.
mejojo
Active Member
woodisgood
Optimustic Pessimist
Here is an interesting paper by Bent Flyvbjerg at Oxford, which describes successful methods of completing megaprojects on time and budget. His observation is that megaprojects (such as the Olympics and infrastructure projects) rarely are on time and/or budget. Most often, they are wildly off on both accounts in an unbounded manner. He uses GF1 as an example of a megaproject that is successful because it is:
(1) modular (the factory is broken into "blocks");
(2) replicable (these blocks can be copied as wished); and
(3) done fast (within a year to first production).
Four Ways to Scale Up: Smart, Dumb, Forced, and Fumbled by Bent Flyvbjerg :: SSRN
He doesn't address the constraint that has appeared at GF1 and has brought construction to a halt: the limited labor pool in the Reno area. He also doesn't address what Tesla is doing at Shanghai, Berlin, and Austin for auto manufacturing. For us as investors, it seems important to note that factory construction on such a scale could easily kill the company because of the unbounded time and expense. Semiconductor manufacturing and nuclear power plants are two examples that come to mind. Accordingly, most companies in the modern business world have been taught to run away from these types of projects.
On the flip side, when completed successfully, these factories can become tremendously rare assets of the type that nobody else has and can have. Crown jewels. A key innovation in this respect has been bringing these factories online on a limited basis in about a year. We can know how successful Tesla will be well into the future by watching how fast it is bringing these factories to first production.
Maybe we are misinterpreting Musk slightly when he says that manufacturing will become the key strength of Tesla in the future. I always interpreted that to refer to a mechanical engineering process. But perhaps it is as much a matter of construction methods: modular, in short phases, done fast. To build a factory of the likes of Berlin (2 million vehicles per annum) would kill any other company very quickly. And Tesla has three of those types of builds going right now.
(1) modular (the factory is broken into "blocks");
(2) replicable (these blocks can be copied as wished); and
(3) done fast (within a year to first production).
Four Ways to Scale Up: Smart, Dumb, Forced, and Fumbled by Bent Flyvbjerg :: SSRN
He doesn't address the constraint that has appeared at GF1 and has brought construction to a halt: the limited labor pool in the Reno area. He also doesn't address what Tesla is doing at Shanghai, Berlin, and Austin for auto manufacturing. For us as investors, it seems important to note that factory construction on such a scale could easily kill the company because of the unbounded time and expense. Semiconductor manufacturing and nuclear power plants are two examples that come to mind. Accordingly, most companies in the modern business world have been taught to run away from these types of projects.
On the flip side, when completed successfully, these factories can become tremendously rare assets of the type that nobody else has and can have. Crown jewels. A key innovation in this respect has been bringing these factories online on a limited basis in about a year. We can know how successful Tesla will be well into the future by watching how fast it is bringing these factories to first production.
Maybe we are misinterpreting Musk slightly when he says that manufacturing will become the key strength of Tesla in the future. I always interpreted that to refer to a mechanical engineering process. But perhaps it is as much a matter of construction methods: modular, in short phases, done fast. To build a factory of the likes of Berlin (2 million vehicles per annum) would kill any other company very quickly. And Tesla has three of those types of builds going right now.
Ha! Got it just right for the first time! My work for the day is complete!
Days like today make it so hard to even get out of bed. When you have made 4X your yearly salary before getting out of bed, the motivation for work is so so low.
Now I wish I had not sold off and closed all the OTM calls for 15Jan. I too thought the S&P inclusion bump was done. But, I used the money to buy LEAPS, so not too badly off.
asburgers
Sell order in at $8008.5
Wall at 800 was pulled about a min ago. Congratulations on the Gordon today everyone!
Sudre
Active Member
We have to hang out around $800 for at least an hour to give THEM the chance to buy back their 800 strike Calls. They bought back most of the $750 strike Calls yesterday. They probably wrapped the rest of those up this morning. Now they are working on convincing people they really don't want to hold onto the $800 strike Calls either, "Much nicer to just take the cash now. See how it hit $800 and bumped it's head.... you want to take your profits on the $800 Calls now!"
We shall see how that sales pitch works out tomorrow morning.
We shall see how that sales pitch works out tomorrow morning.
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