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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Supports my theory it’s gonna take another 3 years for the wider market to recognize and appreciate the value of Tesla’s place in the energy world. This was half the basis for my covered call strategy at the end of the year and my belief I’ll be able to buy back in if forced to sell at $1200.

At some point in the next couple years, a semi-reasonable multiple(400x) will be required and will be based only on automotive. Then the real Energy money will start rolling in around late 2022 and it’ll take a while for folks to buy into that exponential growth.

Common sense tells us that Tesla's energy side of the business has been adding some small amount of share-price valuation (at a minimum) for a long time now. Different investors will value it differently but the net effect on the valuation is definitely positive. The only way Tesla's valuation would only be based on automotive going forward is if Tesla divested themselves of their non-automotive businesses. So I don't really understand where you comments above come from - they don't make sense to me.
 
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Supports my theory it’s gonna take another 3 years for the wider market to recognize and appreciate the value of Tesla’s place in the energy world. This was half the basis for my covered call strategy at the end of the year and my belief I’ll be able to buy back in if forced to sell at $1200.

At some point in the next couple years, a semi-reasonable multiple(400x) will be required and will be based only on automotive. Then the real Energy money will start rolling in around late 2022 and it’ll take a while for folks to buy into that exponential growth.

Edit: Sorry for discussing valuation/investment stuff in the investment thread.

Thats more or less my thought. I sold CCs at 1200 for July. 1200 by EOY is possible but mid year isn’t believable. Of course I’ve often been wrong predicting that. If 2020 was the year of Tesla auto, 2023 will be the year of Tesla energy.

Impacts of legislation will be in full swing by then and Tesla will have ramped batteries enough to serve cars and have plenty left for grid storage.
 
Common sense tells us that Tesla's energy side of the business has been adding some small amount of share-price valuation (at a minimum) for a long time now. Different investors will value it differently but the net effect on the valuation is definitely positive. The only way Tesla's valuation would only be based on automotive going forward is if Tesla divested themselves of their non-automotive businesses. So I don't really understand where you comments above come from - they don't make sense to me.
Even here 90% of predictions and comments are about auto deliveries and margins.
 
Tesla/SpaceX/Elon (correctly) likes to keep as much of the value add under their own roof as possible, because first principles dictates a firm is truly only as valuable as the value it can create.

This contrasts sharply with modern MBA thinking where they think they can outsource everything, throw their badge on it, then magically mark it up.
This is due to time horizon. Executives and most shareholders are incentivized by short term results. If you need a cheap you will get the best short term results just buying it, which looks better on the books. Long term? Who cares? You already got your performance pay.
 
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This is due to time horizon. Executives and most shareholders are incentivized by short term results. If you need a cheap you will get the best short term results just buying it, which looks better on the books. Long term? Who cares? You already got your performance pay.

Speaking of books and long term...

6B8EC5A5-6B0C-485E-9CA7-0C625FDCE9A2.png


Nio day 2020? How about Elon. All day everyday ;)
 
Tuesday and Thursday (Biden unveils his COVID stimulus plan in detail) might be good days, right?

Vegas Loop Developer Elon Musk New World's Richest Man at $190B

"The LVCVA Board of Directors is scheduled to meet Tuesday for its first meeting of 2021. On the docket are two agreements with TBC.

The first would allow CVA management to sign off on a deal allowing The Boring Coming to operate the Convention Center Loop for 16 months, starting on Feb. 1. The amount of that deal is not to exceed $6.25 million.

The other item would grant TBC easements so it can build an underground connector between the LVCC Loop and the Encore at Wynn Las Vegas. That’s expected to be the first step in what Musk has proposed as a larger Vegas Loop. That would connect the Convention Center to an underground tunnel system running from Downtown Las Vegas to the Strip and other key destinations, including McCarran International Airport and Allegiant Stadium.

Last month, the Las Vegas City Council agreed to let the project move forward. Clark County officials are expected to review the 15-mile project next month."
 
The Koreans are certainly rushing to catch up, between the legislative work to reduce the Tesla sales in S. Korea by exempting them from EV incentives, and this Apple collaboration with Hyundai to create a compelling product and produce it at scale.

The aspect that leaves me grinning :D is how this is fully in line with Tesla's goal to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible. Hyundai is the sort of company who might be agile enough to make the transition to BEVs faster than many other legacy auto makers, considering how quickly they became mainstream in the ICE market.

Tesla sales in S. Korea will likely be brisk in the interim, even without tax credits applying to their sales, while Apple and Hyundai bring their collaboration to production, and to market.

Win, win, win!
 
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Tesla can install a 40 stall supercharger station in a few days.
I wish that were true. It took them 3 months to get an 8 stall V3 up and working here last Fall. one month to build it from start and another 2 months to ramp up from 75KW to 150KW and then another couple weeks to get 7 of them to 250KW. One has been broken down for 2 months. Tesla seems better at speed to building a Giga Factory than Superchargers. I look forward to this year when they will be putting new priority on this.

NIO swap + fast chargers vs. Tesla Superchargers:
The NIO swap program is designed for the EV customer who wants to reduce time at a charger; the customer who can afford to pay more and they don't have a way to charge at home overnight. Tesla caters to the cost conscious customer who needs to charge on the go too but doesn't mind sitting for 20-40 minutes. To the NIO customer, his time is more valuable so he will spend more for transportation than the typical Tesla customer who looks forward to a $25K minimalistic car he can charge at home and go for a walk while charging / traveling. The two companies will satisfy different clientele. NIO in China will be a success. Tesla in China will be a success because they really don't compete for the same buyer.

I own stock in both. I started with $3 a share on NIO and have long since removed my original basis. Same with Tesla, as I have zero basis and Tesla is my largest holding at 56% of my portfolio. I am comfortable owning both. I think Tesla fanboys shouldn't need to worry that NIO is a competition for Tesla. I like to spend my time worrying that Tesla doesn't yet satisfy more ICE car buyers now. Tesla, should improve their interior design and features. It's my main complaint and hold up to order a Model Y today.
 
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In practice, it doesn't work like that. Because you have to sell enough covered calls to cover your tax bill with just the premiums in case the share price doesn't rise past the strike price.

It's unclear if you're talking about the sell-far-OTM ones or the margin and sell very close to ITM ones here... those are two, somewhat different, things I described.

It SOUNDS like you are disussing the second because you mention "in case it doesn't rise past strike" which is only a thing you want with the second method.

And in practice it works just as I describe- because I've done it for quite a while and it works fine.

You do not "need" it to rise past the strike.... that just makes it faster.

The premium, by selling very close to current price, is already the majority of your profit.

As illustrated in the example I gave.

3/5ths of the profit was the premium- not the profit from exercise.

3k per week, for the roughly 16 weeks he could have available to him, would raise $48,000 if the stock just sat still and never rose a few bucks into exercising.

If it ever does, he just gets there faster.

And if he has enough margin to do 2 of them a week instead of 1 you double it. (or more, depending on free margin).



But if it does, then you have sold far more shares than you needed to

Again, with the margin method these are shares you only bought to make premium on, not to hold.

You're using the brokers money to earn premium- not yours.

It lets you avoid selling any of your core shares you were trying to AVOID selling to cover the tax bill.


. And the higher the strike you choose (in order to minimize the chances of the shares being called) they more shares you lose if they are called (because the premium is smaller and you need to sell more of them to pay your tax bill).

Now you seem to have swapped back to discussing the first method (selling far OTMs).

Again this will depend on the # of shares he has, and the amount of the tax bill to be able to determine if you can sell enough CCs, far enough OTM to have virtually no chance of exercising in a week, over the ~16 weeks he's got, to cover the bill or not.

We don't have that info to really judge.

If it's a $50,000 tax bill and he only has 300 shares- that idea isn't going to work at all. (the margin idea potentially could though).

If it's a $10,000 tax bill and he's got 3000 shares it'd be very easy to just sell 50% weekly OTM calls on some of them and easily pay the bill with risk being exceedingly low- as the SP would need to not just go up 50% in one week (which is not a 0% chance, but damn close) it'd need to go up more than 50%- in a single week- to actually lose anything.


All you have done is traded the CHANCE to not have to sell any shares for the CHANCE that you might have to sell many times more shares than had you simply sold the amount necessary to cover your taxes.

There are no free lunches in this game.


There aren't.

But what those chances of each are makes a huge difference.


A 100% chance of needing to sell 10 shares, versus a 2% chance of needing to sell 100 for example.
 
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...

Tesla will not own 100% of the EV market or FSD for any lasting period of time, but Tesla can achieve an out sized growth in market share because it will be the first to achieve a working, affordable, efficient and profitable solution at scale.

The key point competitors are now missing is that game has moved on and scale ASAP is very important.

...
So my view remains Tesla can grow into any valuation between now and 2030. After 2030 they are going to have to significantly diversify to maintain the growth trajectory... clean energy and transport will be a mature market at scale.
...

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That sounds plausible. Although I disagree with your conclusions that is because you forget about the present installed base for energy and transport. The only your assumption would hold is if clean energy and transport continue to grow in 2030 and NEVER grow enough to displace the total markets, just the traditional replacement markets.
Ward's AutoWorld (paywalled):
WARD'S AutoWorld
2019 estimate of worldwide light vehicles [ cars, busses and trucks] was slightly over one billion. If the typical yearly replacement rate remains at roughly 1% as it is now, it would require only 10,000,000 p.a. to replace ~ 15% of the present fleet and that would only happen if BEV's would never need replacement themselves.

The energy market is even more dramatic, but the automotive does the job nicely.

In short if disruption does happen in any substantial way, say 40%, and replacement of BEV happens too, as it does, the decade ending in 2030 would have had topical annual of BEV's around 40,000,000. Since annual production today, year one, is an absurdly low percentage fo that the growth rate would need to be Elon's "exponential".

For energy, I'll skip the numbers. They're even more insane. Even only replacing peaked plants worldwide would need exponential growth. Wind, solar and nuclear would also need to scale so quickly that the new GE Halliade-X 13 would need to be installed in the millions among many others:
watch
These markets will allow exponential growth into the 2040's if all goes smoothly.
Tesla can have steadily dropping market share in every area while maintaining unprecedented growth.

This is the 21st century version of electrification, PLUS the 20th century versions of power generation. That means this growth will be like the 1910's were for oil and gas PLUS electrical distribution and storage PLUS the 20th century growth in building heating PLUS the 20th century Air Conditioning explosion.

The probability of all this is almost entirely dependent on a near complete transformation of global industry. 2030 means the growth has matured? That is absurd!
All that is why Tesla is so undervalued.

Just look at only wind power, and nothing else:
The wind harnessers | en:former
and that is just the manufacturers. Just imagine storage requirements for all that.

We would go far off topic for this forum. Here we only need realize that exponential growth for the foreseeable future is very plausible. There are many impediments. However, in everything other that the wind turbines, the solar panels and the nuclear plants Tesla is a strong leader with unparalleled technologies and vision.

Tesla is clearly undervalued by a magnitude. Nobody in the securities industry has even the faintest clue that this is happening.
 
I wish that were true. It took them 3 months to get an 8 stall V3 up and working here last Fall. one month to build it from start and another 2 months to ramp up from 75KW to 150KW and then another couple weeks to get 7 of them to 250KW. One has been broken down for 2 months. Tesla seems better at speed to building a Giga Factory than Superchargers. I look forward to this year when they will be putting new priority on this.

NIO swap + fast chargers vs. Tesla Superchargers:
The NIO swap program is designed for the EV customer who wants to reduce time at a charger; the customer who can afford to pay more and they don't have a way to charge at home overnight. Tesla caters to the cost conscious customer who needs to charge on the go too but doesn't mind sitting for 20-40 minutes. To the NIO customer, his time is more valuable so he will spend more for transportation than the typical Tesla customer who looks forward to a $25K minimalistic car he can charge at home and go for a walk while charging / traveling. The two companies will satisfy different clientele. NIO in China will be a success. Tesla in China will be a success because they really don't compete for the same buyer.

I own stock in both. I started with $3 a share on NIO and have long since removed my original basis. Same with Tesla, as I have zero basis and Tesla is my largest holding at 56% of my portfolio. I am comfortable owning both. I think Tesla fanboys shouldn't need to worry that NIO is a competition for Tesla. I like to spend my time worrying that Tesla doesn't yet satisfy more ICE car buyers now. Tesla, should improve their interior design and features. It's my main complaint and hold up to order a Model Y today.
I said Tesla can, doesn't mean they need to. They build the largest power pack grid in the world in 61 days. So yes Tesla can do a 40 stall station in less than two weeks if they really want to go balls to the walls as their modular design scales very well with additional work force.

You can't use 3 months for 8 stalls as any kind of metrics or else it would have taken them 27 months to build the 72 stall in Shanghai.
 
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2024-2027...why bother?


Do you expect the EV market to already be 100% saturated with excellent products meeting 100% of demand by this time?

Because if not, why bother seems pretty obvious.

That doesn't make them any proximate threat to Tesla- but it's right in the time frame a lot of legacy companies are thinking they might finally get around to trying to compete in EVs.

It's a big market, plenty to go around a lot further out than 3-6 years from now.
 
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