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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Bet TSLA
Active Member
I just don't understand this at all. People keep talking about "rolling" their failed covered call bets as though that's some sort of way to redeem their losses. So far as I can tell, what "rolling" actually means is taking your loss and then making a similar bet hoping that the next time being bearish on TSLA will pay off.
Isn't this pretty much how TSLAQ people lost everything?
I can understand making bad bets. I can understand losing money. But not learning from your mistakes? And posting about it as though your next bearish bet will somehow pay off? On this board? In the middle of a wild rally? I find this unfathomable.
Maybe the idea is to make losing trades quickly and get them out of the way?
Bet TSLA
Active Member
Congratulations! The path to successful investing is to make plans and stick to them (so long as the assumptions still hold). This is very difficult. Greed is tough to avoid. Well done!Today was the day.
I have sold all my shares (which I am sure is not much in relative terms on this forum!) a moment ago.
Don't get me wrong: I still think Tesla will go ahead and do incredible things in the long term. But I have reached, in fact obliterated, my goals when I bought my first shares a few years ago. I did a 10 bagger, actually a 15 bagger (and more with the options in the crazy run-up last January). I lived the transition from derided stock to king of the market. I have seen things people wouldn't believe (which TSLA longs knew for a fact). I have not seen attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion, but we are getting closer.
I know I will regret this. So there is no need to tell me how stupid this is. But it's fine.
Very emotional moment.
The only thing that I really wanted to say in this post is a massive thank you to all participants on this forum (and big thanks also to some that left). The knowledge, info, tips, laugh, roar and wisdom I found here - especially in the dark ages of spring 2019 - have been massively important and formative.
Really, thank you all. Thanks to all people working at Tesla for making the impossible happens. Of course, thank you Elon.
Live long and TSLA.
On a related note:
Has anyone locked at how good a predictor Max Pain has been for the actual closing price at expiry over a range of expiry dates and as a function of (e.g. 1-5) days to expiry ?
Based purely on my imperfect memory, it seems that until quite recently the Max Pain was an unnervingly good predictor of the coming Friday's closing price.
I took this as an indication that large scale sellers of options were in fact able to "supply liquidity" by naked short selling, allowing them a rather fine control of the closing price - ensuring them enough profits to allow them to subsequently cover their naked short positions.
This mechanism now seems completely gone. Which could be due to a combination of sustained buying pressure and naked short seller's fear of a sudden stock split.
So I would be curious to also know what people think of the (apparent?) historical usability of the Max Pain and for example this week's max pain as a predictor for this week's closing price.
Bet TSLA
Active Member
I am hating myself so, so, so, so, so much right now. This call is now worth $3,580. I bought it for $380 originally and sold for maybe $10 profit.
But I love you! When I saw your post I thought "This is the kind of total stupidity I can get behind." so I put ~$10K into some Jan 29 870 calls. Now worth ~$60K. I still expect they'll expire worthless, but what the hell. Maybe I'll get out at a nice profit.
Interesting. What’s funny is that these market capitalization comparisons are such apples to oranges comparisons anyway.
First, there is the commonly mentioned (at least in this thread) fact that Tesla is more than an automobile company. It has other businesses.
Second, Tesla’s automotive business is more vertically integrated than the legacies’ businesses. That is to say, some of the value of suppliers participating in each legacy automotive keiretsu (Keiretsu - Wikipedia) might, in fairness, be ascribed proportionally to the market cap of the legacy OEM’s.
Third, EV’s use roughly a third the number of parts that an ICE car needs*. This manifests in added costs and reduced margins for ICEcars that should weigh on the relative valuation of the ICEmakers.
There is of course the bigger picture: We are well into the market disruption — conquest as some might think of it
— as well as the consequent obliteration of legacy automakers’ enterprise value even with governmental life support. But I won’t belabor that: When that which is obvious to some becomes obvious to all, it is done.edit: *Tesla is also aggressively reducing the number of parts as we can see in the Model Y rear casting photo up thread.
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Bet TSLA
Active Member
That donor advised funds exist is true. And yes, you can donate appreciated stock for a major tax savings. And you can put off deciding what charities to donate to. But their rules are all over the map. Some are fairly absurd.
And be clear that the way this is legal is because it's not your money any more. You are merely an advisor as to what's done with it. In any sort of crisis it might just disappear.
I looked around a bit a few years ago and decided on using this one (American Endowment Foundation): How a Donor Can Open a Donor Advised Fund. So far they've done pretty well for me.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Max pain prior to S&p inclusion was a decent indicator. I would say maybe 80% accurate? Post S&P inclusion max pain haven't predicted *sugar*.
Your assessment isn't wrong. It does indeed mean taking a loss and making a similar bet in the future. The key difference is the time-value of the option that we're trying to harvest using the covered call. So it's indeed a bearish bet, but not at all like TSLAQ.
Edit: The worst-case scenario is that we can no longer afford to roll the covered call, in which case we have to let the shares go at the strike price. We'd be out the shares and missed out on the gains.
Indeed. And a covered call writer (seller) needs to consider the tax consequences (short-term vs long-term gains) when shares are called away due to a call option being exercised by a call owner.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I'm no expert, but it feels to me as simple as MM's pegging SP to max-pain when it's cheap. The ultra-low volume days we've seen 95% of days the last 6 months for instance. They can make moves costing them a bit of cash knowing they're saving more by expiring tons of contracts worthless and there likely aren't a pile of buy(or sell) orders waiting to snap the price back up(or occasionally down).
This to me is essentially what market making is, and what a lot of folks here refer to as "manipulation". When any volume whatsoever shows up, they have a very difficult time using these tactics since it costs them more than they save. That's when we see those "snap back Mondays", which I assume are their more aggressive moves unwinding. When actual entities are actually accumulating like we saw in the run-up to inclusion and these last 11 days......there's nothing they can do that's worthwhile since it'll cost them a ton and almost certainly get steamrolled.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
What the hell you talkin bout? If this is a legit new narrative, take it to the shorting oil thread because I'm interested!
Stockpiles in the US:
Imports from Saudi Arabia(implying the oil is going somewhere it's less accurately quantified):
corduroy
Active Member
There are a lot of us who are applying the wheel strategy with some trading shares, then using gains to add to our core positions - to me that's a very bullish overall strategy. This trade had a 92% probability of ending in my favor, but alas, a record 11 days updays in a row of an awesome rally caught me off guard.
I am new to options and making mistakes all the time, and trying to learn from them. Reading other people's posts about losing trades has always helped me, so I try to return that favor - even if that means exposing my own naiveté.
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A covered call is a limit on one's bullishness, not necessarily bearish. Fie xample, thinking 1,000 might happen next month, but 1,500 probably won't.
If we extend the definition bearish too much, anyone not 100% long in the highest strike calls could be termed bearish...
A sold cover call never has 'losses' unless by that you mean less gains. In which case, same argument, anyone without every dollar available to them in stock (or ITM options) has losses. Or anyone who didn't sell calls just above the price at expiration has losses.
The process of rolling does not necessarily mean a debt, further out in time and higher in strike can get them back OTM (eventually, (one hopes)).
Threads: Applying options strategy 'the wheel' to TSLA
trading
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Bernie goes after Elon, the guy that has employed 10s of thousands of people with HIGH PAYING, HIGH QUALITY jobs in all his companies.
What was the last REAL job Bernie had? (not political office) . . . thought so.
What was the last REAL job Bernie had? (not political office) . . . thought so.
Tesla China May Be Gearing Up for Begin Model 2 Project Given Latest Recruitment
Tesla continues to expand in China in an effort to create a full-fledged structure that not only builds vehicles from the company's developers in the United States, but also develops its own products that will best meet the needs of the local market. Tesla China has opened recruitment for a number of positions that are related to the development of new car models, software for vehicles, and in other areas.
Tesla continues to expand in China in an effort to create a full-fledged structure that not only builds vehicles from the company's developers in the United States, but also develops its own products that will best meet the needs of the local market. Tesla China has opened recruitment for a number of positions that are related to the development of new car models, software for vehicles, and in other areas.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Where would they build this? Isn't GF3 running full tilt on Model 3s, and the new lines coming up are for the already backordered Model Y.
Build more lines nearby? Take over more watermelon fields?
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