Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

"Stamping Dies" specifically are the long-lead-time items for tooling. Especially so since both the Model 3/Y for GF3/4 could just be additional die orders for the existing pattern first built for the dies used at Fremont.

I'll defer to @Krugerrand for a timeline on die production, but I expect a 2 year buildout at Giga Shanghai Phase 3 to go 'watermelons-to-millions' (of Models 2).

Cheers!

I was asking a more fundamental question... stamp machine or cut-n-bend machine requiring no die, or other. We don't know was my point but I do expect they will take the tooling route and reuse what they can. Many good ideas in this thread actually.

(OT - To be fair, I studied for years under both Dutch and some German Tooling experts in my past. Now I'm planning to buy some molds of my own at Proto Labs but would rather have them in my garage.)

 

[CorneliusXX]

"Stamping Dies" specifically are the long-lead-time items for tooling. Especially so since both the Model 3/Y for GF3/4 could just be additional die orders for the existing pattern first built for the dies used at Fremont.

I'll defer to @Krugerrand for a timeline on die production, but I expect a 2 year buildout at Giga Shanghai Phase 3 to go 'watermelons-to-millions' (of Models 2).

Cheers!

I was reading on reddit that the watermelon field can't be expanded into fully as there is planning for a second Donghai Bridge to go through it. The current work looks like it's just for a model Y staging area.

Maybe they'll need a new location for the M2.

 

[winfield100]

Thanks... $804.01 it is then.

@SOULPEDL

TSLA TESLA INC
Action Quantity Price Timing Time & Date (ET)
Buy 1 Shares Limit $841.38 Day Only 10:56 AM 01/11/2021
Bought 1 $841.38 Settles 01/13/2021 11:02 AM 01/11/2021

Reinvest Dividends: View/Edit
Order #: 49515500

 

[Unpilot]

Funny story about a man who can't figure why Tesla a AUTOMAKER is worth so much.
passing comments about how it "may" be more than a auto maker...but then back to bashing the share price as a Auto maker.


I’ve pulled out all the stops for Tesla — but can’t find the upside on the stock

Edit to say this is a MarketWatch opinion piece

 

[Krugerrand]

"Stamping Dies" specifically are the long-lead-time items for tooling. Especially so since both the Model 3/Y for GF3/4 could just be additional die orders for the existing pattern first built for the dies used at Fremont.

I'll defer to @Krugerrand for a timeline on die production, but I expect a 2 year buildout at Giga Shanghai Phase 3 to go 'watermelons-to-millions' (of Models 2).

Cheers!

Basically a year for a new set (4 or 5 per set) from new design. Copy dies with minimal or minor design improvements from the original set can be done a bit quicker as there’s less time required for validations along the various stages of development and build. This is for A class panel die sets.

Stamping machines? If you mean press lines for the dies that make the body panels, that is also a year from order to up and running for a new press line. If a used press line can be found, then maybe 6 months or so to dismantle, ship and reassemble.

If you mean casting machines, I’ve not a clue since Tesla is creating something that’s never been done before. A year for those seems about right, maybe less time if they’re making copies with minor/minimal changes per iteration of casting machine.

 

[lafrisbee]

OT (100%)
A 2 door hatchback would get my love. I drove a Datsun 240Z many road trips.

I'm wid ya. 'cept Mine was a real 2-door hatchback... a 1989 Mitsubishi Mirage/ Dodge Colt. First new car I ever bought. 11 year and 134,000 miles later the computer when out on it. I didn't even know they made cars with computers in 1988. I lived and worked on the beach. No rust. And it sipped gas. 30+/mph.
Hatchbacks are the real mini CUV.

 

[lafrisbee]

"Stamping Dies" specifically are the long-lead-time items for tooling. Especially so since both the Model 3/Y for GF3/4 could just be additional die orders for the existing pattern first built for the dies used at Fremont.

I'll defer to @Krugerrand for a timeline on die production, but I expect a 2 year buildout at Giga Shanghai Phase 3 to go 'watermelons-to-millions' (of Models 2).

Cheers!

watermelons to "want our millions"

 

[SOULPEDL]

This in fun to watch... Max Pain ~1 hour apart today. Volume doubled (left column) but same focus.

Earlier today...

Later today...

She could pop this week as Earnings near. And we should keep in mind, it's about cash flow and not earnings so much. As Elon stated (paraphrasing), the more factories Tesla makes, the more cash flow grows, and the more factories Tesla can build. It's this feedback that is unstoppable as I understand the financial picture.

 

[MXWing]

Limit order set up to buy at $804. Now off for a walk.

Keep walking, order hasn't filled yet.

 

[Bouboule]

How come no one is bragging on how many yearly income they lost this morning. It was a record for me

 

[Discoducky]

This in fun to watch... Max Pain ~1 hour apart today. Volume doubled (left column) but same focus.

Earlier today...
View attachment 626670

Later today...
View attachment 626671

She could pop this week as Earnings near. And we should keep in mind, it's about cash flow and not earnings so much. As Elon stated (paraphrasing), the more factories Tesla makes, the more cash flow grows, and the more factories Tesla can build. It's this feedback that is unstoppable as I understand the financial picture.

Seems like they've 'doubled up'? That's a big roll forward. If they get squashed this week with SP hitting $1k that would be epic

 

[lafrisbee]

OK, You all MADE ME. I finally looked at the stock.
30 million shares traded in a little over 2 hours. That seems different?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

OK, You all MADE ME. I finally looked at the stock.
30 million shares traded in a little over 2 hours. That seems different?

Nope, volume was stronger in the first couple of hours on Friday. Volume today is trailing Friday's and falling off quickly

 

[Artful Dodger]

I was reading on reddit that the watermelon field can't be expanded into fully as there is planning for a second Donghai Bridge to go through it. The current work looks like it's just for a model Y staging area.

Maybe they'll need a new location for the M2.

Yeah, I don't get my analysis from reddit:

• the 2nd Donghai viaduct (for access to the port) was announced 6 yrs ago
• you can not build a thoroughfare through the existing Phase 1 area
• the viaduct plan includes a railway line (no lines anywhere near Giga Shanghai)
  
• ergo, this construction is NOT for the 2nd Donghai viaduct (attempt to deceive)
• there are no preparations for a 2nd bridge in the Phase 3 area (red herring)
• you don't build a modular construction camp to support pouring a concrete pad
• reddit is a reliable conduit of misinformation (which is why I don't read it)

 

[Todd Burch]

<s>This is a disaster that we have plummeted to the after-hours level of Thursday. </s>

 

[joh01652]

TSLA is actually recovering quite nicely. We didn't drop as much as I thought we might. Personally is see that as a sign of strength. We might still breach $900 in the first half of this week.

Agreed, TSLA is looking really strong, I'm pleased. I know this is probably a bit premature to state, but I think the price spread over these past several days is boding well for the SP to travel within a tighter range on a daily basis in the future while it moves higher.

I know some here think that with more shares locked up, it'll make the SP more volatile. I don't think so, at least not when it comes to the naked shorting downside volatility of the past because the MMs are now just naked shorting a different department within their own organization--like, why would they do that? Moreover, they might raise the ire of other major institutions who actually have the resources to go after bad actors who employ abusive tactics. At least that's how I think about it in my mind.

With TSLA in the S&P now, I'm hoping the future will show the vast majority of the volatility to be to the upside, so that we see nice gaps up while limiting the big spikes down. I mean, just today for example, a spread of 817-854 after bad political news isn't that significant when one considers that a $50 move each day has been practically guaranteed for months.

Again, too early to know. Time will tell. I'd be thrilled if TSLA consolidates in the low 800s for the next few weeks.

 

[mejojo]

How come no one is bragging on how many yearly income they lost this morning. It was a record for me

I am currently down $100K less than I was up Friday. Not sweating......bought the dip pretty hard for Earnings lead-up.

 

[Krugerrand]

I was asking a more fundamental question... stamp machine or cut-n-bend machine requiring no die, or other. We don't know was my point but I do expect they will take the tooling route and reuse what they can. Many good ideas in this thread actually.

(OT - To be fair, I studied for years under both Dutch and some German Tooling experts in my past. Now I'm planning to buy some molds of my own at Proto Labs but would rather have them in my garage.)

Unknown the time frame. Not enough information. There are ‘off the shelf’ bending presses but that doesn’t mean they’d work. If something has to be designed and built for a particular use, like bending large, heavy, body side stainless steel panels - that’s not an off the shelf item, that’s custom order and build. That means extra time to design, validate, build and then validate again. Computer sims need to be run, hand trials, press programming, robotics, clamping, end of arm tooling etc... and then a lot of praying that something wasn’t missed and that you turn it on and it just works. Hint: it doesn’t just work, pretty much ever. So then there’s weeks to months more to getting it working to designed optimal speed.

None of this is ‘easy’, which is not to say it’s impossible. But it’s not drive to Walmart, get a cart and just grab things off shelves, voila done. Much of what Tesla is doing has never been done before. Even the aluminum body panels for their vehicles often have pushed the envelope of the formability of the material. Many panels on their vehicles have multiple directional curvature and very deep draws with tight radii. This is lost on most people. Now stainless panels and huge casting machines — bunch of crazies.

 

[SunCatcher]

<s>This is a disaster that we have plummeted to the after-hours level of Thursday. </s>

Yes, at this rate, we're going to be hurled all the way back to the earliest days of January, 2021!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

@SOULPEDL

TSLA TESLA INC
Action Quantity Price Timing Time & Date (ET)
Buy 1 Shares Limit $841.38 Day Only 10:56 AM 01/11/2021
Bought 1 $841.38 Settles 01/13/2021 11:02 AM 01/11/2021

Reinvest Dividends: View/Edit
Order #: 49515500

I'm way too old to be pulling off the double-420-69.