Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bkp_duke]

She insists confidently $1200 by spring.

FYI, I know you all will want to know she got her first Covid vaccine last week. Sore arm and a bit of a headache.

It's the second one to look out for. Expect 1-3 days of flu-like symptoms (IMO worth it for the protection).

Hope the symptoms don't affect her TSLA predictions.

 

[pz1975]

I like this sideways trading. Good for selling OTM puts and calls (mostly puts) for now until the IV drops, then I switch to buying LEAPS (most of my previous ones were sold from purchases in the low 400s after S&P inclusion). Win win.

 

[goinfraftw]

This does feel eerily familiar. Absurdly now volume most days, but MM's not getting much traction on their pushdown efforts. Everything feels super tight. Great foundation for a blowout earnings/guidance report followed by 50M Robinhood bros getting handed $1400.

There's also the trillions of dollars waiting on the sidelines for some form of return. I don't see how any of the current factors lead to selling TSLA.

Unfathomable we're at $4200 pre-split, but it's STILL kinda silly to sell TSLA. If my $1300 sold calls get exercised this summer, I'm not entirely sure how I'll feel. If they get exercised NEXT summer, I'm getting the feeling I might feel mild regret. Will dry my tears with wads of c-notes.

Back to consolidation.....

As a reference, Tesla would, most likely, be worth more than Google at $1300 / share.

 

[bkp_duke]

I like this sideways trading. Good for selling OTM puts and calls (mostly puts) for now until the IV drops, then I switch to buying LEAPS (most of my previous ones were sold from purchases in the low 400s after S&P inclusion). Win win.

Also good for digging calls back OTM with rolling.

 

[WattsHappening]

Couldn't resist. Picked up a few more at $847 this morning.

 

[Sofie]

Question if anyone has any thoughts on the matter.
(Note: I am and always will be, a long term holder)

How will the “great reset” impact Tesla stock?

 

[Krugerrand]

It's the second one to look out for. Expect 1-3 days of flu-like symptoms (IMO worth it for the protection).

Hope the symptoms don't affect her TSLA predictions.

We will not be telling her that. I had to spend an hour talking her off the ledge about the first shot. She’s very sensitive to medications and vaccines. But her LTC facility is top notch and has extra doctors on hand for the shots, as well were checking everyone every 15 minutes for several hours. She was cranky they wouldn’t leave her alone to nap. Zero residents have contracted Covid at this facility, which is amazing.

On the TSLA front, she’s currently refusing to predict further out than spring because I gave her such a hard time about missing the last target by $20 and 5 trading days. Fortunately, she’ll eventually forget it happened and we’ll have new numbers.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

As a reference, Tesla would, most likely, be worth more than Google at $1300 / share.

As always when someone brings up the valuation of other companies, it's all relative to future growth. Google has somewhat stagnated on annual growth, which affects it's multiple and valuation. If you believe in Tesla's 5 year roadmap, they'll have 50%+ growth every year for the next 5 years at least. If Tesla does guide for 900-1,000,000 vehicles in 2021 then it's justified that it's market cap could start to approach Google.

Note: I'm not saying 1,400 is in play, even in 2021.....just that there's justifiable reasons as to why Tesla can be valued as much as Google in a years time.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

And TSLA @ $1300 is about $1.18T I think. Google is worth about $1.3T today. And likely much more since I think they have another pile of less senior shares? I forget, but it was discussed here many times.

 

[15Peter20]

Question if anyone has any thoughts on the matter.
(Note: I am and always will be, a long term holder)

How will the “great reset” impact Tesla stock?

This is the thing with the brake pedal and the steering wheel buttons right?

 

[EVMeister]

Question if anyone has any thoughts on the matter.
(Note: I am and always will be, a long term holder)

How will the “great reset” impact Tesla stock?

The what? What have you been reading? If it wasn't mentioned in this thread, it wasn't worth reading.

 

[FireMedic]

Sorry, I’m not sure if this was already posted. It’s a good read.

Volkswagen Fined $121 Million for Missing Emissions Targets

 

[joh01652]

From Bloomberg:
Saudi Oil Giant Understates Carbon Footprint by Up to 50%
"Before it launched the world’s biggest public listing, Saudi Arabian Oil Co. promised potential investors a small piece of a trillion-dollar company with access to unrivaled oil reserves. Not just in sheer volume but in climate friendliness, too.

Aramco executives emphasized in the run-up to an IPO in 2019 that drilling Saudi oil generates fewer planet-warming emissions than other producers. “Not because our crude is cleaner than other crudes globally. It’s because of our standards,” Chief Executive Officer Amin Nasser said at a roadshow, pledging to do even more to deliver lower-carbon oil. “Even though our numbers are great, climate change is critical for the world.”

But Aramco’s accounting for the greenhouse gas fails to provide a complete picture. The Saudi oil giant excludes emissions generated from many of its refineries and petrochemical plants in its overall carbon disclosures, according to a review of public filings by Bloomberg Green. Including all such facilities might nearly double Aramco’s self-reported carbon footprint, adding as much as 55 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent to its annual tally—or about the emissions produced by Portugal."

This is why it's so important to support Tesla and invest in other green-energy-only companies. Fossil fuel companies do nothing but cook-the-books and cherry-pick the data to support whatever lies they want, whenever they want.

These are the kinds of articles I send my representatives. We cannot continue to bailout, finance, and subsidize these companies, whether they're American or foreign. It's not enough to sit on this forum and watch our brokerage accounts go up, we need to actively reach out to our representatives and tell them to stop supporting these crooks.

Let's get Washington to divert more taxpayer money to Tesla and other companies who create green energy technologies and jobs. Your brokerage account and your health will thank you.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Sorry, I’m not sure if this was already posted. It’s a good read.

Volkswagen Fined $121 Million for Missing Emissions Targets

Brings up another point. I've seen some talk around(mostly from analysts) that think Tesla's EV credit revenue will go down in 2021. Yet all of the evidence I've seen points to the contrary in that EU restrictions and penalties get stricter and more costly in 2021 and 2022. Some were speculation that the Euro auto makers were gaming the system in a way to lower their 2021 and 2022 requirements.

Given the issues that we're seeing from EU auto makers, especially VW in terms of production, I'm pretty confident that they're going to badly miss their targets and Tesla's ev credit revenue will be noticeably higher every quarter in 2021 compared to 2020.

 

[StealthP3D]

Note: I'm not saying 1,400 is in play, even in 2021.....just that there's justifiable reasons as to why Tesla can be valued as much as Google in a years time.

There are justifiable reasons why TSLA should be valued higher than GOOG right now.

Valuing a company as unique as Tesla must go beyond the textbook if you want it to be accurate or meaningful. That is the mistake TSLAQ has made all along - they keep treating it like a regular auto company. Anyone with half a brain can easily see it's not.

 

[Drezil]

Brings up another point. I've seen some talk around(mostly from analysts) that think Tesla's EV credit revenue will go down in 2021. Yet all of the evidence I've seen points to the contrary in that EU restrictions and penalties get stricter and more costly in 2021 and 2022. Some were speculation that the Euro auto makers were gaming the system in a way to lower their 2021 and 2022 requirements.

Given the issues that we're seeing from EU auto makers, especially VW in terms of production, I'm pretty confident that they're going to badly miss their targets and Tesla's ev credit revenue will be noticeably higher every quarter in 2021 compared to 2022.

The targets stay the same - the benchmark moves from NEDC to WLTP. In reality the emissions go up ON AVERAGE by 20% for gas-gusslers .. because NEDC was "not even d**m close".

 

[UkNorthampton]

I'm not familiar with that auto listing site but I would assume most of the ID3 listings are simply VW dealerships that list their new stock on-line for better exposure.

If that's not the case, then .

AutoScout24: Auto kaufen & verkaufen in der Schweiz

German, French or Italian speaker required ideally (I used Google translate)

Alles nicht in ordnung, methinks.

• 409 total for sale
• New - 173 total (of below 2 sub-categories)
  • 145 "New Vehicle"
  • 28 cars "New vehicle with daily registration"
• 94 cars "Occasion" (same in all 3 languages)
• 0 cars "Oldtimer"
• 142 cars "Demonstration model"

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

There are justifiable reasons why TSLA should be valued higher than GOOG right now.

Valuing a company as unique as Tesla must go beyond the textbook if you want it to be accurate or meaningful. That is the mistake TSLAQ has made all along - they keep treating it like a regular auto company. Anyone with half a brain can easily see it's not.

Sure....I mean for me I fully believe in the 5 year roadmap that we know of right now and can easily see......which to me justifies a 1,200-1,400 share price today. Take away any labels of Tesla as a company and I would gladly pay the current valuation for a company when I'm confident in a 90%, 90%, 60%, 50%, 40% 5 year growth roadmap in revenue and much higher percentage growth in earnings.

Now add in the all the upside and speculative catalysts

 

[Christine69420]

Perhaps a suitable sideways topic - we all know how the news media reacted on battery day - a big collective huh?

But a few days ago Tesla released this video about battery production. Proving that journalists need to be spoon fed wit pretty pictures:

...because after this video was released I got sent this link to an UK newspaper writing an article on Tesla Roadrunner battery production - and not getting all the facts wrong...:

Elon Musk unveils Tesla Roadrunner production line and tabless battery in new video | Daily Mail Online

Quotes:

Tesla's Hot Wheels production line: Elon Musk shows off the workshop of giant casting machines that make cells for his electric cars

The tabless battery was first unveiled in September during the firm's Battery Day, but was only shown by Musk via a PowerPoint presentation.

Now, the time has come for Musk to show the world what Tesla has been working on at its pilot battery factory in Fremont, Texas.


...and I did a search and found this article about a Tesla possibly on autopilot in Sweden avoiding a Moose crossing the road - you can see the video in the article:

Tesla autopilot manages to avoid crashing into animal crossing the road at night in Sweden | Daily Mail Online

Quotes:

This is the heart-stopping moment a Tesla autopilot swerved on an icy road in a desperate, but successful, bid to avoid hitting a moose.

Dashcam footage shows the smart vehicle, a Tesla Model S, quickly turning to the side after its on-board camera spotted the wild animal crossing a road in Sweden in the dark.

However, the Tesla driver, named David, uses cat-like reactions to swerve around the moose and avoids catastrophe.

The electronic car was left without a scratch as it managed to stabilise itself after swerving on the icy road to prevent crashing into the wild moose crossing the road

The Tesla Model S is particularly designed to prevent the car from sliding out of control.

With four-wheel drive, it would send differing power levels to each wheel in order to control the vehicle.

Not quite sure who is driving there but positive talk about the electronic smart car is something I can live with.

 

[StealthP3D]

The targets stay the same - the benchmark moves from NEDC to WLTP. In reality the emissions go up ON AVERAGE by 20% for gas-gusslers .. because NEDC was "not even d**m close".

Can you clarify which way this particular change moves the demand for credits?

It sounds like ICE makers will need to buy more credits due to this change (all else being equal)?