My bear concerns (in order of highest concern to lowest):
- FDS hits a new local max - it is amazing but they just cannot quite get far enough along the march of nines with the current hardware/software that people will 1) opt for it or 2) regulators will allow it.
- Similarly, they achieve acceptable level 5 safety but 5% of the time the sensors cannot deal with the weather.
- In the mad ramp of the 3 and Y production there is a nasty recall in there somewhere.
- The new battery manufacturing tech is delayed by 6 months - 1 year.
- China changes policy to really favour domestic companies.
- The one-piece casting has a long-term durability problem (hopefully this has been modelled to very low risk).
- Black swan - Elon gets hit by a silent electric Semi, 3rd party battery breakthrough.
Let me be clear that these concerns are only in the context of the current stock valuation. Near-zero concern about the company over the long haul. Would love to hear everyone’s biggest worry.
Here is what does not worry me:
Competition
Bull drivers:
Too many to list...but basically speed of innovation.
Not thrilled about the bitcoin move but trying but remain open about it.
Today I did sell (for the first time ever) a portion of my 2011-purchased shares to pay for the construction of a new house for retirement and a new Model S - which I had ordered. What a ride.
The only thing that would get me to sell the rest is a change in the mission.
- FDS hits a new local max - it is amazing but they just cannot quite get far enough along the march of nines with the current hardware/software that people will 1) opt for it or 2) regulators will allow it.
- Similarly, they achieve acceptable level 5 safety but 5% of the time the sensors cannot deal with the weather.
- In the mad ramp of the 3 and Y production there is a nasty recall in there somewhere.
- The new battery manufacturing tech is delayed by 6 months - 1 year.
- China changes policy to really favour domestic companies.
- The one-piece casting has a long-term durability problem (hopefully this has been modelled to very low risk).
- Black swan - Elon gets hit by a silent electric Semi, 3rd party battery breakthrough.
Let me be clear that these concerns are only in the context of the current stock valuation. Near-zero concern about the company over the long haul. Would love to hear everyone’s biggest worry.
Here is what does not worry me:
Competition
Bull drivers:
Too many to list...but basically speed of innovation.
Not thrilled about the bitcoin move but trying but remain open about it.
Today I did sell (for the first time ever) a portion of my 2011-purchased shares to pay for the construction of a new house for retirement and a new Model S - which I had ordered. What a ride.
The only thing that would get me to sell the rest is a change in the mission.