Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lascavarian]

Interesting, Andrea James, previous Tesla analyst, predicted the pull back to online sales focus about 3 months ago.

Andrea S. James (@AndreaSJames) | Twitter

 

[KarenRei]

Ok just slogged through the last 20 pages of this thread. Sort of amazed* that there has been not even a single mention (could be wrong but was looking carefully) of “CFO” or the name “Zach Kirkhorn” in those 20 pages.

Would love to know what his contribution was to this overnight debacle, if any. It all feels like an Elon thing but I wonder if this was Zach’s first big move as CFO. If he’s no longer with the company come April I guess we’ll have our answer.

*I confess I had to go google his name

What would the CFO have to do with this? A CFO is a glorified accountant.

 

[TradingInvest]

Recently Tesla said they will first build the semi trucks for their own use. I think the purchase of the shipping company is part of a bigger plan. Tesla probably will ship their own products using Tesla Semi. Each Tesla semi can earn $200k in a year based on my rough estimates.

 

[KarenRei]

Recently Tesla said they will first build the semi trucks for their own use. I think the purchase of the shipping company is part of a bigger plan. Tesla probably will ship their own products using Tesla Semi. Each Tesla semi can earn $200k in a year based on my rough estimates.

Yep, Tesla is going to be their first and best customer. The level of refinement Semi will get as a result should be superb, because they'll have a closed feedback loop.

Expect Megachargers to be deployed on routes where Tesla needs them most Probably some SpaceX service as well, since I'm sure they'll switch to hauling Falcons with Semi.

 

[Cosmacelf]

It's not been a secret that most of the batteries in GF3 will not be from Panasonic.

It hasn’t? Other than pure speculation, what else do you know about this?

 

[lklundin]

No sensor in the current suite can detect a child laying immediately in front of the car (playing hide n seek, presumably). Going from zero to one mile/hr is the danger period.

Before getting in to the car I tend to check the front (or the rear if I need to back out).

 

[Artful Dodger]

Option_Sniper on Twitter:

"tsla making a move... 284 is key level... if confirm it as bottom, see 294 297 or even 304 coming"
​

View attachment 385203 .

Don't agree with that TA. Here's some quick stats as of 10:30 EST today:

• The mid-pt of the Bollinger Bands is $297.51
• The Upper range of the BBs is $323.66
• The technical bottom was about $276 which was tested in each of the last four trading sessions
• we did not test that bottom so far today (including during brief MMD at Opening)
  
• Light volume so far with 1.708M shares traded in the 1st hr

 

[Don TLR]

Recently Tesla said they will first build the semi trucks for their own use. I think the purchase of the shipping company is part of a bigger plan. Tesla probably will ship their own products using Tesla Semi. Each Tesla semi can earn $200k in a year based on my rough estimates.

Who better to Test them out by using them to haul their own cars vs sending them out with issues and the possible negative press associated with it..

 

[Unpilot]

surveillance capitalism

I learned a new phrase today...thank you!

 

[lascavarian]

It hasn’t? Other than pure speculation, what else do you know about this?

She is right. This has been public information. Been a bit so source cloudy.

 

[neroden]

That literally makes no sense when you look at vin registration and Elon's reiterating guidance and actually higher guidance over the past couple of weeks. What is this guy smoking?

Maybe he's trying his hand at market manipulation. Remember that the SHORT SELLERS were projecting really high delivery numbers to skew the "analyst average estimate", so that when the real numbers came out they could be (falsely) portrayed as a "miss".

Trip, who is bullish, is throwing some really low delivery numbers in to skew the "analyst average estimate" back the *other* way, so that the real numbers will appear to be a "beat".

Makes more sense than anything else, right?

Stock market is wild west and SEC is not doing anything useful, just wasting their time on tweets.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

Tesla (might have accidentally) did a great job to make sure the news will be covered by both pro and anti Tesla media.

It’s really hard for CNBC and alike to cover Tesla closing stores without mentioning 35k car is out.

Did you see the other day (Feb 27th) TSLA stock went up 7% and financial media all went silent, and whenever it went down 3%, it’s all over headlines.

I suspect if Tesla announced 35k car without some “bad news” it would have got the same silent treatment.

To be fair, the "anti-Tesla" media also isn't harping on about the fact that Jan and Feb U.S. sales in 2019 were less than a single week's capacity, and European and Chinese sales aren't even close to picking up the slack. The stock (and media coverage) is doing remarkably well in an environment where sales are down almost 80%. Any other company would be in deep trouble.

This is exactly why Tesla launched the $35k car and lowered prices across the board. Indecisiveness will be more damaging than tough decisions that need to happen; I'd like to see Tesla get a lot more aggressive.

 

[Artful Dodger]

It's not been a secret that most of the batteries in GF3 will not be from Panasonic.

It hasn’t? Other than pure speculation, what else do you know about this?

Elon Musk described this in a prior tweet:

Tesla will manufacture all battery modules & packs at China Giga, as we do today in California & Nevada. Cell production will be sourced locally, most likely from several companies (incl Pana), in order to meet demand in a timely manner.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 2, 2018​

 

[printf42]

Yeah, from the SEC filing:

49,967 shares

"As part of Tesla’s ongoing logistics strategy to increase its vehicle transport capacity, reduce vehicle transportation time, and improve thetimeliness of scheduled deliveries, Tesla agreed to issue shares of Tesla’s common stock in connection with its acquisition of certain car-hauling trucksand trailers from Central Valley Auto Transport, Inc. (“Central Valley” or the “selling stockholder”), an automotive transport provider. We are registering these Tesla shares pursuant to registration rights granted to the selling stockholder in connection with the acquisition."​

So it's about ~$14m less capex in Q1 (?) at the price of 0.0294% dilution.

Is there still any short insisting Tesla for some reason can not raise money by issuing stock?
This could come as a shock to them.

 

[Fact Checking]

To be fair, the "anti-Tesla" media also isn't harping on about the fact that Jan and Feb U.S. sales in 2019 were less than a single week's capacity,

Probably also helped by the fact that this is not actually true?

 

[sweter]

What would the CFO have to do with this? A CFO is a glorified accountant.

Not exactly. At least in the companies I've worked at / with, CFO was responsible to keep expenses in check, find money and approve budgets. I believe that in a "normal" company the CEO would ask the CFO to validate their thesis, do all the data analysis and actually help make the decision about store closures based on data they present. Whether that's true at Tesla or Elon does it all himself, I don't know.

 

[Krugerrand]

"We're currently reviewing our store network and plan to close underperforming stores within the next 6-12 months."

Adjust price accordingly AFTER you know how many stores will be closed.




This in itself would/did skew the statistics in a way to make it useless for store traffic evaluation – in contrast to a longer evaluation period (see above).




Good. Hope their pay is adequate.






Don't we agree that Tesla has its fair share of "any publicity is good publicity" (ugh) already?

Look, they listened to their (loudest) customers. And now everyone gets to pay 3% more for so a handful have the ability to test drive before purchase.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

Probably also helped by the fact that this is not actually true?

Monthly Plug-In EV Sales Scorecard

If this is wrong, paint me stupid... but I don't have any other source.

For those who hate clicking things

2018 - Model 3
Jul: 14250
Aug:17800
Sep:22250
Oct:17750
Nov:18650
Dec: 25250

2019 - Model 3
Jan: 6500 (est)
Feb: 5750 (est)

So the last 2 months of 2018 averaged 21,950 and the first two months of 2019 averaged 6,125 which is a 15,825 decline. or around 70% (the 80% is Dec Vs Jan).

Is this wrong? Did Tesla sell 15,800 Model 3's in Europe in Jan and Feb?

 

[Unpilot]

To be fair, the "anti-Tesla" media also isn't harping on about the fact that Jan and Feb U.S. sales in 2019 were less than a single week's capacity, and European and Chinese sales aren't even close to picking up the slack. The stock (and media coverage) is doing remarkably well in an environment where sales are down almost 80%. Any other company would be in deep trouble.

This is exactly why Tesla launched the $35k car and lowered prices across the board. Indecisiveness will be more damaging than tough decisions that need to happen; I'd like to see Tesla get a lot more aggressive.

Source for your super low sales numbers?

 

[neroden]

Where will new vehicles be delivered now. Obviously service centres are being expanded and/or increased. Is the plan to deliver all vehicles at service centres.

Don’t laugh at this question but were cars ever delivered at stores or were they always delivered at service centres.

If we buy we’ll probably select home drivers as we are 5 hours from a service centre. (Vancouver).

Tesla has stand-alone delivery centers. Most of the rest were delivered through service centers.