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Monthly Plug-In EV Sales Scorecard

If this is wrong, paint me stupid... but I don't have any other source.

For those who hate clicking things

2018 - Model 3
Jul: 14250
Aug:17800
Sep:22250
Oct:17750
Nov:18650
Dec: 25250

2019 - Model 3
Jan: 6500 (est)
Feb: 5750 (est)

So the last 2 months of 2018 averaged 21,950 and the first two months of 2019 averaged 6,125 which is a 15,825 decline. or around 70% (the 80% is Dec Vs Jan).

Is this wrong? Did Tesla sell 15,800 Model 3's in Europe in Jan and Feb?
The rest of the vehicles are on boats to Europe and China. There's an intraquarter lag in sales due to transport timing. The insinuation that Tesla has virtually stopped making cars is farcical and should be ignored.
 
How on Earth are we up today? All this uncertainty and weirdness should have us testing $270. Someone must have been quite supportive over the last week.

Henceforth it shall be known as The Meissner Abyss

Poor Stuart, AFAIK, the only "news" site to pick up on it was Buffoon Insider...
 
Well, yeah, Perth needed a store/gallery. It's not like they're gonna visit Sydney to test-drive the car.

The stores which I thought needed closure were the redundant stores, multiples in a single metro area.
Perth also has quite a lot of "cashed up bogans" who love fast cars. There is also excellent solar potential. Tesla could do very well in the city.
 
But can we assume the average shipment to be more than 2k ?

I believe @KarenRei wrote 30k Q1 deliveries outside of North America as a lower and thus fairly certain bound.

Don't know - we have photos of the cars lined-up ready to board, no? Didn't anyone count them yet?

Where's Shorty Air-Force when you need them?
 
Good points and I hope you're right, we'll all see soon enough.



I don't think prior years are a great indication given Tesla hasn't had anywhere near the volumes in prior years that they had in 2018, so it's difficult to know what kind of trend the Model 3 will follow.



Your Norway numbers are not supported by that link you provided, unless I am reading it very wrong. The site shows just over 1,900 deliveries in 2019 to date. I don't know what the cut-off is for those numbers, but I'll be generous and say the end of Feb, so that's 8 weeks or 237 vehicles a week (not even close to 700). Norway is very EV friendly with more than 50% of all car sales being EVs, but yes has a low population of about 5 million people.

I think it would be very hard to extrapolate European sales from Norway's sales, but if we take your 3.5x Norway as the baseline (I think it might be a little higher than that), you're still looking at under 1,000 deliveries a week, or less than 10,000 in total sales when including U.S. per month, which is still only 50 - 60% of Q3's average.

I'm not hating on the company, I own the car and the stock, and I'm worried. Last night's tweet and reversal hasn't made me more confident.
Norway started receiving M3 in mid feb. That volume is a few weeks of deliveries.
 
One thing that I have not seen enough discussion is Tesla's competitor in China: NIO. Stock price has been devastating the last few trading days (dropped from 10.5 to ~6.7) due to company's change of direction of NOT building their own assembly factory. Is it a pure coincidence with Tesla's announcement of the SR $35k M3?

I know this isn't a $NIO discussion forum, but I also know a few of you bought some as play-shares, I hope you divested from them already, I can see any reason why they would go up from here, nothing.

Not in any way advice, you understand.
 

Sorry if this has been posted. Sandy Munro interview. It's pretty good after the first few minutes. It seems his mind works right. He predicts $35k Model 3 built in China can have 25% margin. I remember Elon said the same thing during Q4 conference call.
So I finished watching the video and I found it interesting. It was posted just before the SR announcement and when asked if Tesla could actually make a $35k M3SR, Munro said definitely and at a profit. When asked for when, he said whenever they wanted to. That is a good look for him as an outsider, unlike the analyst pundits who keep insisting on bankwuptcy and the necessity of raising funds.

When the topic of US vs China production came up he said he thought the SR could be made in China at ~25% profit, but he was naturally fuzzy on details. He was also clear that he thought profit came first and that the SR should be made in China for sale in the USA due to the better profit margin.

This reinforces his position as providing true insight via his tear downs as Tesla did turn around and start making the SR in the US at a profit ($1500 without accounting for depreciation, IIRC, was the figure given).

That said, I do take issue with his characterization of EV adoption (as per my previous comment) [though he did end up making a comment about the legacy makers being half-hearted in their efforts] and he asserted that 80% of EV buyers were "young." Hard to dispute that uncited figure without defining what "young" means, but he said something along the lines of "young save-the-planet" types. He then mentioned the acceleration as making a Tesla desirable. I don't recall hearing him saying a single word about affordability, safety, improvement after purchase/OTA updates, auto-pilot or self driving capabilities.

I don't have demographic data to back this up, but -- to date -- I'd hazard that Tesla owners (as a group) are not "young." Teslas are expensive enough that most people who can afford them are well into their careers which makes them unlikely to be young. And I seriously doubt that Chinese EV buyers are doing it to "save the planet."

When it comes to his tear down analysis and related commentary I think he is very good and worth listening to*, but I don't think he actually gets Tesla as a company or understands the buying motivations or demographics of EVs.

* one last caveat that occurred to me is his insistence that the M3 body was poorly engineered. I don't think he gets the safety of Tesla at all -- he considers over-designing for safety to be a production defect because it creates avoidable manufacturing costs.
 
It depends on what the 10% consists of. 10% increased volume, 10% bigger in each dimension, 10% bigger in the sum of the total dimensions. No way to tell until the unveiling.

I expect the same width but taller and longer, though on the same wheelbase, so a bit more rear overhang. At least that's how I'd do it to get maximum part commonality.
 
It's a myth. A pencil would produce large amount of tiny graphite particles floating everywhere (due to zero G) which is a hazard to the health of astronaut, and to the electrical system (random shorts).

On topic:
I predict share price will slowly go up until the day / after model Y unveil. I am not looking to sell near term calls yet - the rise in SP should make selling calls at the same strike price more profitable later despite theta decay for the short term expiration options.

Warning: Tangent!
Fact or Fiction?: NASA Spent Millions to Develop a Pen that Would Write in Space, whereas the Soviet Cosmonauts Used a Pencil

- They were going to use very expensive pencils and it was an outcry at the cost that prompted a search for a different solution.
- A company (Fisher) developed a pen that solved the problem, not just for zero gravity, but for low temperatures and awkward writing angles.
- NASA bought 400 of them
- Russia bought 100 of them, with extra cartridges.

It's a rather sad myth since it's criticism of excessive engineering, when the reality is that engineers solved a real problem.
 
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A $3.1M block trade buy was executed in the latter half of the day. Not saying that's the reason for the increase, but just as an FYI.
Yeah, a 10K+ block sounds like ARK Invest type of buying, though they're usually morning traders. Maybe somebody with ARK data access can comment, perhaps @Curt Renz

That buy broke us out of that '288' funk though, so thanks for that Cathie W... ;)

Cheers!
 
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When the topic of US vs China production came up he said he thought the SR could be made in China at ~25% profit, but he was naturally fuzzy on details. He was also clear that he thought profit came first and that the SR should be made in China for sale in the USA due to the better profit margin.

Long term, the business plan of Tesla seems to be one of near sourcing, where customers order online and their product comes right out of the factory and is shipped to them.

Yes you can probably make it cheaper in China, but when you count in the costs of a bloated supply chain it is probably a wash. Also, it will generally be a positive to consumers when their car is made near them, and it also future tariff-proofs your manufacturing line.

Hence the need for a European GF and an Asian GF. Tesla wants its manufacturing near it's customers. Near-sourcing. It'll be a trend that will catch on more as manufacturing becomes more automated. It's pretty much needed for the business model Tesla wants to adapt (online ordering with minimal middle men) if they want to keep inventory levels low.
 
Will Elon’s response to the SEC be leaked or made public?

It will be available here for those with a PACER subscription. I'm watching it closely.

Edit: Pretty good article on the SEC issue here. It looks at the judge's history with regard to contempt rulings. Good excerpt (emphasis added):

There’s not much of a court record to indicate Judge Nathan’s attitude toward civil contempt or its remedies. In a 2017 case involving alleged false advertising of pregnancy test kits, the judge found no contempt but did comment on what’s necessary to prove it:

“A party may be held in civil contempt only where the plaintiff establishes the decree was clear and unambiguous, and the proof of non compliance is clear and convincing.

“Although the defendant’s conduct need not be willful,” she continued, “a plaintiff must also prove that the defendant has not been reasonably diligent and energetic in attempting to comply.”

It's a very informative article and I suggest folks interested in the SEC motion take the time to read it. Pinging @Fact Checking and @KarenRei as I'm sure they'll be interested.
 
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